My odds problem

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by Grizzoola, Apr 16, 2016.

  1. Grizzoola, Apr 23, 2016

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    Thanks, NA. I understand "against" need not be expressed. It's just something I need to keep in mind. I also understand craps odds are fixed, because based on the chances of any number showing vs. the 7. But, there is a difference between actual odds and payout odds. Example: the 6/8 show 5:6, five against 6. But, for payout, they are reversed: 6:5. Bet $5, win $6. If betting the don't, then it's 5:6, the actual, or true, odds.

    I know sports odds are not fixed like craps, but are variable according to the sport & situation. But, from what I already said re: the difference between actual odds & payout odds, the Spurs odds, 19-5, are payout odds. Actual odds have to be 5-19, 5 against 19, or 5 out of 24 chances. To me, that can be expressed as a fraction, 5/19, which can be converted into a decimal number. Or should I figure 5/24?
     
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  2. Night Attack, Apr 24, 2016

    Night Attack

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    You seem to be mixing and matching ratios/probablites with odds. You keep referring to actual odds and payout odds but I do not think there is a need to separate them as such in this circumstance. Odds are odds and they determine the payout.

    When you say "the 6/8 show 5:6, five against six" then these are not odds. This is a ratio of five 6/8's for every six 7's. I'll even accept the term probability here. The odds of a 6/8 showing against a 7 are 6-5 and I don't think you need to refer to them as "payout odds". Of course they are reversed for dark side bettors.

    The only time I would refer to odds as actual odds and payout odds is when they would differ in the same circumstance. Place betting the 6/8 for example has actual odds against the 7 of 6-5 but the payout odds are 7-6. The casino execs have to feed their kids after all.

    Regarding your Spurs example, I agree the payout odds are 19-5 but the actual odds are not 5-19. They are in fact 29/1 at the beginning of the season since there are 30 teams in the league. As of right now the actual odds are 15-1 as there are 16 teams remaining and they have one chance in 16 of winning.

    I don't know why you say the actual odds are 5-19, 5 against 19, or 5 out of 24 chances. They are just theoretical numbers made up by the bookies to either encourage or discourage action on the Spurs based on bets taken on all teams all season long. They want an even spread of action across all teams to ensure they get as close to the same juice regardless of who wins the NBA.

    Any odds could be expressed as a decimal or fraction. In fact, odds as they are are referred to as 'fractional odds'.
    Factional odds of 19/5 would pay you a total of $24 for every $5 wagered. You win $19 plus you get your $5 back.
    To convert to decimal odds you would divide 24 by 5 which is $4.80 and those decimal odds include your original stake.
     
    #62
  3. basicstrategy777, Apr 24, 2016

    basicstrategy777

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    I'll try....

    Grizz...as you know chapter 6 is titled " Crap Odds"..It starts with a quote from Mario Puzo's book Inside Las Vegas:

    " Should I go to heaven give me no haloed angels riding snow white clouds.....Give me rather a vaulted red casino with bright lights, bring on horned devils as dealers. Let there be a Pit Boss in the Sky who will give me unlimited credit. And if there is a merciful God in our Universe he will decree that the player have for all eternity an Edge against the House."

    In there it says the only probabilities that are important are:

    1. The chances of a certain number appearing on the next roll.

    2. The chances of a number appearing before a 7.

    The above 2 are figured differently.

    The chances of rolling a number on the next roll:

    The number of combinations ( i.e. number of ways) that can form the number (s) in question is the numerator......the demoninator remains fixed at 36 ( the total combinations that can appear when rolling 2 six sided dice)

    Example: What are the odds of rolling a 7 on the next roll ?

    There are 6 ways to roll a 7....6/36= 1 in 6 or 5 to 1 against. Remember, in gambling the first number represents the event not happening......the second number represents the event happening)

    The true odds of rolling a 7 on the next toss is 5 to 1. You have a 16.6 % chance of rolling a 7 on the next roll ( 1 divided by 6 ).



    What are the chances of a number appearing before a 7:

    To calculate the odds of a specific number or group of numbers appearing before a 7 is different, as we are not concerned with the next roll.

    The number 7 is the key number in the game of craps. It is the only number that can be rolled, no matter what number appears on one die....you can't say that about any other number.

    Example: what are the odds of rolling a 6 before I roll a seven ?

    There are 6 ways to roll a 7.......there are 5 ways to roll a six....hence, the TRUE odds are 6 to 5 I will roll a 6 before I roll a 7.

    The true odds always remain the same.....the payoff odds are determined by each casino and can differ....

    The difference between the true odds and the casino odds is the house edge.

    Example: The any 7 bet......The true odds of rolling a 7 on the next roll is 5 to 1. The first number is what you win ( 5 )....the second number is what you bet (1)......if the casino paid you off in true odds you would get back 5 plus your original bet 1...a total of 6. ( note: true odds are 5 to 1...a casino cannot make money if they pay you off in true odds, they need an edge, a house edge......CASINO odds are 4 to 1 on any "any 7" bet......by paying you 4 to 1 instead of the true odds of 5 to 1 the casino has a house edge of 16.6 % on all any 7 bets. It does not matter if you win or lose, only that you bet. If you make a total of 25 one dollar bets on 'any 7' , the casino will make $4.17 on your action ( 25 x 16.6 %) .


    Understand that true odds are different than casino odds ; casino odds can be anything....and are set by the casino; the house edge is determined by figuring the difference between true odds and casino odds.

    The true odds of rolling a 6 are 6 to 5;.....the payoff or casino odds are 7 to 6 on your place bet;......the odds bet on your come bet is payed off at true odds of 6 to 5.

    777
     
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  4. FredP

    FredP Member

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    This is a 200 year old dead horse.

    Fred
     
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  5. Onautopilot, Apr 24, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    This forum enjoys giving that horse another whack! If it didn't, this would be a very quite place. :)
     
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  6. Onautopilot, Apr 24, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    It may just be simpler for you if you look at it from a "what you win for what you bet". In the case of 19-5, you win $19 for every $5 you bet. The first number is what you win, the second number is what you have to bet to win it.

    The pay offs do not always reflect the true odds of the event though, just the bookies offering. It is up to you to do the handicapping, and determine if the bet is a good or bad bet. Some people are very skilled at sports handicapping, and a few actually make a good living from it....I'm not one of those. :)
     
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  7. hartzehn22, Apr 24, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    huh?
     
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  8. TDVegas, Apr 24, 2016

    TDVegas

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    As you can see...tom p knows his stuff.
     
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  9. hartzehn22, Apr 24, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    Huh?
     
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  10. hartzehn22, Apr 24, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    TDV- Yes you and tom p are very enlightening. I appreciate all comments and assistance in understanding the intricacies of a complicated and negative expectation game like craps. TY
     
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  11. hartzehn22, Apr 24, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    KokomoJoe4- Poor chap! Whoever puts such money down all on one number? Unless of course he is an intuitive and knows for certain but who can ever know for certain? IMO just because one tracks numbers doesn't give you the ability to know what number is coming next but combined with DI, I think it gives me an advantage at times. That's been my own personal experience.
     
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  12. Grizzoola, Apr 24, 2016

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    Thanks, again, to all responses. First, I should not have mentioned craps odds, since I understand them. I know they are unique to the game of craps. Second, my purpose was trying to understand sports odds. I know that sports odds are not like craps odds. My inquiry was simply to ask why these odds figure:

    Chicago Cubs 9-2
    SF Giants 8-1

    These are payout odds, howsomever they're arrived at. I know bookies play both sides against the middle; they just need their cut in the action. What I couldn't get thru my thick skull was what it means that the Cubs are favored at 9-2 and the SFGs at 8-1. Of course you could say, "Well, the Cubs are listed ahead of the SFGs. That's enough."

    I think I can look at it this way, the way a bettor does. For every $2 bet on the Cubs, a win returns $9. For every $1 bet on the SFGs, a win returns $8. So, say I want to bet $10 on each team. That $10 applies to the 9-2 odds this way: $10/2 = $5. $5 x 9 = $45. That $10 applies to the 8-1 odds this way: $10 x 8 = $80.

    Since the payout for the SFGs is more than that of the Cubs, then that means the SFGs are favored less than the Cubs. It's like the prop bets in craps, where the least likely numbers to hit return the most. (Forget HA, here.) I used $10 because divisible by 2 to compare w/ the 8-1. I could have used $6 or $8, but anyway.......

    Golden State 1-2
    SA Spurs 19-5

    The GS odds pretty much say it all: They're so likely to win that you have to bet $2 to win $1, like the don't side in craps. The SAS's 19-5 caused me fits. I know the bookies arrived at this & I don't care how. Applying what I already said re: the Cubs & SFGs, you bet $5 to win $19. IOW, in all this, the team that is expected to win pays less than the team expected to lose, just like the prop bets in craps.

    Yeah, a big OH-HUM out there, but I think I'm on the right track. Many people, esp. gamblers, do this stuff in split seconds in their head; me, I have to think about it.
     
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  13. KokomoJoe4, Apr 24, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

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    Yeah, couldn't believe it myself. He was there with another guy, neither was betting when I joined the table at about 1 AM. The one guy was charting every toss as 6/4, 5/3 etc. He must have "seen" that a four wasn't coming, but it did.

    You and I both know that laying four or ten is a bet the player expects to win way more often than lose, but they do lose at times.
     
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  14. Onautopilot, Apr 24, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    I was playing in the Golden Nugget years ago, late at night and I was the only shooter. A guy walked up and laid the 4 for $50, I rolled a 4, he then laid it for a $150, I hit the 4, he then laid it for $450, I hit the 4, yep, you guessed it.....he laid the 4 for $1,400, when I made the next 4, he didn't cuss, look funny at me, just walked away.

    He was trying to win $25, less the dollar vig. His odds were pretty good, his luck was worse than terrible!

    I shook my head, not sure how much I made on the hand, but it was a good chunk of money.

    I like to think he had won a considerable number of times doing that Marty, and was not really out the full $2,050. :)
     
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  15. Sancho Panza, Apr 24, 2016

    Sancho Panza

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    You scream bloody murder and notify the Casino Control Commission with your proof. If you can't or won't do that, NO ONE is forcing anyone to play.
     
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  16. TDVegas, Apr 25, 2016

    TDVegas

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    +1

    He continues to state there is nothing preventing the casinos from using cheap, bias dice but forgets there is a very clear statute that's states the casinos must provide "fair, random equipment" for their games. (I'm paraphrasing because I don't remember the exact wording)
     
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  17. hartzehn22, Apr 25, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    TDV- "clear statute that states the casinos must provide fair, random equipment for their games" and then the alarm clock went off!!
     
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  18. TDVegas, Apr 25, 2016

    TDVegas

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    NRS 465.085

    1.  It is unlawful to manufacture, sell or distribute any cards, chips, dice, game or device which is intended to be used to violate any provision of this chapter

    (a) Affects the result of a wager by determining win or loss; or

    (b) Alters the normal criteria of random selection, which affects the operation of a game or which determines the outcome of a game.
    -------

    You can sing yourself blue that a casino employee would knowingly risk prison, loss of license, loss of family, loss of everything by introducing cheap bias dice. He has no idea if he's helping the casino or hurting them but will risk prison regardless? If that's what you believe, then I don't know how you can even function in everyday life. You must think that you are being ripped off, duped everywhere you go. Restaurant, accountant, mechanic, financial planner, barber, et al. If the casino is doing it...why is anyone exempt from ripping you off or cheating you?
     
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    Last edited: Apr 25, 2016
  19. hartzehn22, Apr 25, 2016

    hartzehn22

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    TDV- where is it that you have seen the casino folks actually testing the die to see if they are balanced? OR do they rely on their purveyor to provide them with quality die that are perfectly (or close to perfectly) balanced? I never see newly introduced die checked.

    So really TDV...where are the controls for fair die in place????? How often do they check the die or do they ever? Can you answer that? Does anyone really know? Where are the casino checks and balances? Does anyone on this forum have the answer to my question?
     
    #79
  20. hartzehn22, Apr 25, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    TDV- I don't feel like I'm getting ripped off by the casinos or duped anywhere I go. You really have a strange way of interpreting my claim about bias die and how it must be affecting me personally.....Unfortunately, I see plenty of craps players getting scammed while they are expecting a fair distribution of numbers something you don't get with bias die. The unsuspecting craps player doesn't have much of a chance even the ones that play conservatively waiting for their 6 & 8 to hit.
     
    #80
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