My odds problem

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by Grizzoola, Apr 16, 2016.

  1. basicstrategy777, Apr 23, 2016

    basicstrategy777

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    Ahhhh......so I need more than one table to satisfy the math.

    I guess that explains it.

    Thanks.

    777
     
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  2. hartzehn22, Apr 23, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    you'd believe if you tracked numbers and found out how ridiculously the distributions can be over an 8 hour period of bias dice.

    TDV- What makes you believe that casinos are so willing to use fair die? Yes, it's a negative expectation game but what about screwing customers over for just a tad bit more house advantage? NO one is calling them out except for those craps players that actually track the numbers and see how casinos are in fact screwing most craps players over.

    Furthermore, I don't have a problem with bias die, I recognize them and attempt to adapt but what Harley is saying is many unsuspecting craps players are playing their game and expect say the 6 & 8 to hit more often than the 5 & 9. Kind of logical to think this way but all night long the 6 & 8's aren't hitting. They lose their ass more often on the table because for example there is an increase in craps, quick PSO's and or 4 & 10's and after hundreds of throws and hours and hours of observation on the table very bias dice are obvious. Bias dice don't have to be bad for the player however, usually the craps player has a set way of betting and they do not adapt to die that may very well be biased.
     
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  3. superrick, Apr 23, 2016

    superrick

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    If you don't play the game what do you expect from someone that wants everybody to believe he works for the cazino.
    TDVegas wants everybody to think they are getting a fair game, when the are not. We all know that we are playing a negative game. But what happens when you keep seeing the same type of numbers that you shouldn't be seeing?
     
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  4. TDVegas, Apr 23, 2016

    TDVegas

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    It's a negative expectation game. Of course you aren't getting a "fair" game. Fair would be fair payouts.

    The bias dice crew would generally be those who lose at the tables, maybe on a couple nights in a row...and "it can't, it simply can't be me."
    "There has got to be something wrong with these dice".

    In all likelihood...this is what's going on. From 7uwin.....with his decades in the business:


    Point 2. In all likelihood these players walk up to the table, plunk their money down and play. If the concern was so great that bias dice were on the table, they would sit on the rail, occupy a "dead" player spot and have to record literally thousands of rolls to gain some confidence level it was bias dice and not just variance. They aren't doing that. Plus, with 5 different dice and combinations, it's puts another dent in the argument.

    Anyone believing they can spot bias dice after 20-30 rolls is IMO delusional. But, again, that's my opinion. Take it or leave it.

    The bias dice crusade seems to be started by Harley. My theory is his ego doesn't allow him to accept the idea that he can lose at craps. It's a game of negative expectation. He loses. He's human. No different than any one of us. Some just can't accept losing at a negative expectation game. They "need" an excuse. Plus, if he can make a living with fair dice using luck (not believable) or make a living with bias dice (using his ability to discern)...I don't believe for a second there is some "consumer protection" rant from him to "save us all"...at his expense.

    No one, I mean no one is playing craps for a living with the basis of "I use luck". I think you can take that to the bank. Again, all my opinion. Believe whatever you want.
     
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  5. tabletop123, Apr 23, 2016

    tabletop123

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    Hartz, its funny that you said EXACTLY what biased dice do! They throw an inordinate number of 7's craP nuMbers, & 4's & 10's, i NEVER complain because i know what to look for. I actually like bias dice because they give you a warning as to when to start taking your bets down, When i start to see crap numbers followed by tens & fours with no inside numbers, i know that i have extracted the maximum from that hand & its time to sit it out & wait for the next hand. I am not a Crusader, & wouldnt give a shit if people believe in bias dice or not. Not accusing ANY Casinos of anything. Simply reporting what i have experienced....ON OCCASSION!
     
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  6. KokomoJoe4, Apr 23, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Was at a second table for only about 20 minutes at the end of a four hr session last night. There was an old guy with a couple of oranges and a bunch of blacks in the rail, recording results with a pencil and paper. He finally layed a $2000 four just after I went onto the same number with a 10/20 come bet.

    The poor SOB dropped 3/4 of the money in front of him on one roll! His tracking didn't work out, at least on that occasion.
     
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  7. Onautopilot, Apr 23, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    The first part of your statement is true, the odds of rolling a seven is 1 in 6. The second part of the statement is not true, the math never says the seven is not due.....the math says it is due, at a rate of 1 in 6 rolls!

    Those numbers never change, not because of the math, but rather because of the configuration of the two dice. The math just describes that configuration.

    You still seem to think that the math has some "effect"....it doesn't!

    Forget the math, the game doesn't need it.

    Random chance lives quite well with out any math, man started using math to try and understand some of the properties of random chance is all.

    Flip a fair coin...random chance, either side of the coin is as likely to show as the other side on any flip.

    Anyone that says one side is more likely to flip than the other because of the history of past flips does not understand the configuration of the coin......it only has two sides!

    If a number were truly "due" based on the history of the dice rolls, we could all get rich, but then the game would not exist as we know it.

    People have been trying to apply this flawed belief for eons.....they have a name for it, "Gambler's Fallacy", or in your case, "Due Theory". :)
     
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  8. TDVegas, Apr 23, 2016

    TDVegas

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    hop the sevens, play the field, TT.

    I wouldn't leave if it was that pronounced.
     
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  9. Onautopilot, Apr 23, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    The ultimate oxymoron!
     
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  10. Harley, Apr 23, 2016

    Harley

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    WARNING - OFF-TOPIC kinda

    Liman and betwthelines - my apologies to all our NY friends as I was not implying NY is the only place apathy to crime exists ... below is a recent story from Chicago

    Newly released surveillance video shows the troubling moments before a popular Chicago bartender was run over by a taxi cab after being beaten unconscious in a downtown crosswalk.

    In the video, Marques Gaines is seen being punched and knocked unconscious outside a 7-Eleven store. Within a few seconds, dozens of bystanders gather around Gaines’ body, some appearing to sift through his pockets before the group dissipates, leaving Gaines in the street.

    Bystanders continued to walk around Gaines, with no one coming to his aid before a taxi cab turned the corner and ran over his body. He died.​
     
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  11. Twelve4s, Apr 23, 2016

    Twelve4s

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    What do they do to you if your NOT popular?
     
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  12. Onautopilot, Apr 23, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    :)
     
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  13. tabletop123, Apr 23, 2016

    tabletop123

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    One of the MAIN reasoms that i left Chicago! Too much violence. Sadly, out of a group of 12 rowdy, good for nothing kids....... Only three of us made it out of our neighborhood alive! When my best friend was robbed at Gunpoint, forced to strip "but naked" in minus twenty below weather & shot in the head, i packed up , headed South. Havent been back to
    my old neighborhood in over 30 years, & pretty certain that any that survived the neighborhood are probably incarcerated! Or if they are lucky..... relocated, such as i did! I guess playing pool all over the country, & NOT being home much, is how i survived the neighborhood!
     
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  14. TDVegas, Apr 23, 2016

    TDVegas

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    So now we are going to compare a vicious physical assault on a man where people stood by and watched and did nothing to a guy playing craps and sees an extra 7 in 36 rolls (bias dice?) and doesn't call the police?

    If I've ever seen "stretches" beyond comparison belief....this is one of them.
     
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  15. Twelve4s, Apr 23, 2016

    Twelve4s

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    Having spent too much time driving truck in the big windy, I congratulate you on escaping with your parts intact . I will say I met a lot of great people in Chicago, and witnessed my share of mayhem. Only "luck" and maybe some good timing, perhaps saved me from any serious incidents during my time there.
     
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  16. FredP

    FredP Member

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    You need to consider ALL the tables. If you do, the math will work, if you don't, the gambler's fallacy is working. Trouble is you can't consider ALL tables when playing. That means that anything can happen even when it's not intuitive. Volatility!

    Fred
     
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  17. Dave G Ct, Apr 23, 2016

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Talking about pool, I came across a new pool hall- bar at Bradley Field- the main airport for the state. They were actually holding a 3 day tournament from players that came from all over the country. To watch a $25 cover.Never knew there was that type of action in Ct
     
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  18. tabletop123, Apr 23, 2016

    tabletop123

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    Over the road Truck Driver traveling through Chicago, & having the misfortune of possibly being stranded overnight= Certain Doom. Maybe i am being a bit harsh, Certainly other dangerous cities, but Chicago, & Detroit are no joke. Played a lot of Action Pool in Detroit, won big money & NEVER got robbed! Might have had sonething to do with the gutless, Fearless, Gun toting Stakehorse that i traveled with!
     
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  19. betwthelines, Apr 23, 2016

    betwthelines

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    7's, the idea that you will ever understand random events and the probability mathematics that describes them is a hopeless case...it's been good though, pal...with nary a scintilla of name-calling or personal attacks, we have amicably agreed to disagree...
    hartz, you too have a poor understanding of random events, it seems...it does not however logically follow from that (my) opinion that biased dice are not being used...

    but i am writing because there is a quite easy way---and also a not really difficult way but rather one that is time-consuming and would require a good deal of commitment---to test your ideas...

    while i personally have never had the desire to roll them out other than one-atta-time, wincraps does provide (or so i am told on here and esp. on the old rgc group & wincraps itself) an apparently easy and relatively fast way to toss out MILLIONS of rolls, which can be broken down just about any way you choose...if you want 8 hours or whatever hours of rolls, just input what your opinion is---or maybe better yet, if possible, use your own data---of the "average" number of rolls in that period and wincraps will spit out series after series of them for you...

    I GUARANTEE YOU that you will find numerous--hundreds--of 8 hour series that would match your idea, your opinion, of what constitutes "ridiculous" distributions

    this test would not apply if in your opinion, wincraps is using biased dice:)

    another way to test your idea would be to use your own data of what you deem as "ridiculous" distributions---and please correct me if i am confusing you with someone else and when you talk about "8 hours of rolls" that you have actually tracked these and have a record of them---and alongside them write out 8 hour series from your head what you think might be "unbiased" distributions...

    i can put you in touch (via PM & with permission of course) with probability experts that would be able to ascertain within 90% accuracy which are your real, seemingly "ridiculous", series and which are your made-up ones!

    tom p
     
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  20. basicstrategy777, Apr 23, 2016

    basicstrategy777

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    [​IMG]



    777
     
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