My odds problem

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by Grizzoola, Apr 16, 2016.

  1. Grizzoola, Apr 16, 2016

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    Remember, this is the Beginner Zone, so no wising off, please. I'm math challenged, and craps has exposed me to more math than I can understand. One of those things is odds, which apply to all gambling. I do understand the odds of certain numbers showing compared to the 7: The 6 & 8, for example will show 5 times out of 36; the 7 will show 6 times, giving odds of 5:6. For payout (I think), the ratio is reversed, 6:5 for true odds. And so forth re: rest of the numbers. I get that.

    Where I get hung up is when I see odds like these in today's LV Review-Journal sports page:

    Odds To Win World Series:

    Chicago Cubs 9-2
    SF Giants 8-1

    So, 9-2 odds are better than 8-1? And I suppose these are payout odds, so the actual odds are expressed as 2-9 & 1-8? But, why is 2-9 better than 1-8? I thought the lower the numbers, the better the odds. I get that these (& all) odds can be expressed as fractions: 2/9, 1/8, but I still don't get that.

    Another example:

    Odds To Win NBA Title:

    Golden State 1-2
    SA Spurs 19-5

    Now if GS's odds are payout odds, you bet $2 to win $1? Sounds like don't craps wagers, to me. And, what's w/ SA at 19-5? How does an oddsmaker determine 19-5 odds? Actual odds would be 2-1 & 5-19. But it becomes ridiculous to have 2/1, I think. 5/19 as a fraction is ok, but I don't get the 5-19 number. How does an oddsmaker determine that?

    777 has a chapter on odds in his book, which I have, but it's all packed up, waiting for my next move. Would appreciate anyone willing to explain all this to a math dummy.
     
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  2. basicstrategy777, Apr 17, 2016

    basicstrategy777

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    Odds in gambling is usually expressed 'against' an event happening.

    The odds of rolling a 7 is expressed as 5 to 1 against.

    The odds of rolling a 7 are 1 in 6. There are 36 ways all numbers can appear. Of those 36 ways, there are 6 ways the 7 can appear.

    To determine the chances a certain number can appear requires working with fractions. The number of combinations that can form the point ( in this case the 7 ) is the numerator of a fraction whose denominator remains fixed at 36.

    Your golden state example is the same as rolling an inside number on your next toss........the odds are 1 in 2 ...or even. Like the odds for flipping a coin.

    Look at the cubs at 9 - 2...... Treat it like the 7 at 5 to 1.

    The chance of rolling a 7 on your next toss is ( 1 in 6 )
    The numerator is 6...the demoninator is 36....1 diveded by 6 is 16.6%.....that's your chance of rolling a 7.

    With the cubs......total is 9 plus 2 = 11......you have 2 chances out of 11 to win....or 2/11....or 18 % chance of winning.

    The giants are 8 -1. .......8 plus 1= 9.......you have 1 chance out of 9 to win......1/9 = 11 %.

    So the reason 9-2 is better than 8-1 is because your chances to win are greater.


    On your example of the 6/8........I think you are confusing the odds of rolling it before a 7 and the odds of making a 6/8 on one toss.

    The odds of rolling a 6/8 on the next toss is 5 in 36 or 6.2 to 1 against.......the odds of rolling a 6/8 before a 7 are 6 to 5.

    There is confusion on how to state odds.

    If the odds for something is 1 in 3.....this means there is 1 way to make it happen and 2 ways not to. In gambling parlance the odds would be stated 2 to 1 against ( not 3 to 1 against).

    So....if someone says the odds are 1120 to 540....is that a long shot ?

    Someone else can probably explain it better than I did.....probably one of the math guys.

    777
     
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    Last edited: Apr 17, 2016

  3. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    Bookmakers adjust the odds on the handle.
    If someone makes a large wager on the Cubs at 9/2 the odds will go down on the Cubs and up on the other choices as the bookmaker wants to spread the action evenly and win the juice without the risk.

    At the craps table the odds always stay the same. The house relies on H/A on all bets.
    Sure they will pay 6/5 on a 6 but you must have a negative expectation bet in play or a vig to get those odds.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 17, 2016
  4. Onautopilot, Apr 17, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    They could have said 4 1/2 - 1 , same thing. But they generally do not use fractions, so they just doubled both sides to 9-2.
     
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  5. Harley, Apr 17, 2016

    Harley

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    7uwin - fixed your explanation for you with the inserted quote ... there is a reason most casinos do not state odds on the craps table that you normally find in craps books - too many casinos have no way to support the theoretical odds realistically with unbalanced dice .... Just like Bookmakers, most unbalanced dice do adjust the actual odds
     
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  6. KokomoJoe4, Apr 17, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Grizz,

    Odds at craps are all in the dice, and are calculated with respect to each numbers "ways of showing" vs. the six ways the seven can show.

    2 and 12: 6 to 1
    3 and 11: 6 to 2 = 3 to 1
    4 and 10: 6 to 3 = 2 to 1
    5 and 9: 6 to 4 = 3 to 2
    6 and 8: 6 to 5

    Where are you moving to? Any idea when? I will definitely look you up next time in town.
     
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  7. Grizzoola, Apr 17, 2016

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    Koko, I pretty much have the craps odds down. It's just those weird odds I see on sports pages, like I cited. 777 and OAP have offered some insights & I'm thinking about 777's statements & need to draft some more questions for him. (I'm terribly ignorant.) BTW, you show the payout odds, whereas I believe the original odds are expressed as "2 and 12: 1 to 6," etc. As 777 says, odds are expressed as chances against (before payout odds are applied), so "1 to 6" is one chance against 6, since the 2 & 12 have 1 way & the 7 has 6 ways out of the 36 combinations.

    I'm now living in Henderson, NV, so when you're in Vegas, maybe we can get together. PM me next time you're in town.
     
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  8. Onautopilot, Apr 17, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    If you are still there in the Fall, I'll look you up on my way through there.....we can have a cold one and talk "odds". :)
     
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  9. TonyDvegasrules, Apr 17, 2016

    TonyDvegasrules

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    7uwin had the best explanation to your post. Craps has fixed payouts on all odds bets.

    While sports betting odds are in somewhat of a constant flux as people, can bet on either team those odds will change.
     
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  10. Grizzoola, Apr 17, 2016

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    First, I understand craps odds & the need for the casinos to apply HA/HE, which means even if you win, you still lose a portion of your winnings to the house, also expressed as -EV.

    But, I want to expand a bit on what 777 and OAP have said about the sports odds. OAP helped me by stating that the 9:2 odds can be reduced to 4.5:1, but bookies round up numbers. Another way (due to OAP's post) I think is to realize odds are fractions: 2/9. (9:2 are payout odds.) So, dividing 2 by 9 = .22, the percentage that 2 is to 9. Expanding on that, 1:8, or 1/8 = .125. So, 9:2 are better odds than 8:1, because 2 out of 9 stands a better chance than 1 out of 8.

    Same w/ the other odds, altho the GS Warriors odds are a bit puzzling, because 1:2 payout means 2:1 actual odds. 2/1 = 2, probably the best odds any sports team can have. To me, it's similar to the don't bet, where the 7 has the most chance to show, so payouts require more wager for a smaller payout than a do bet. So, I can see where each $2 bet on GS will earn only a $1 win.

    But, the Spurs have 19:5 payout odds, meaning actual odds are 5:19, meaning 5/19 = .26. As 777 says, this is 5 against 19. So, now let me answer 777s question: "So....if someone says the odds are 1120 to 540....is that a long shot ?" Well, if what I've said is true, reverse the odds from payout to actual odds, 540:1120. 540 against 1120, or 540/1120 = .48. No way is it a long shot!

    This is my understanding how to deal w/ odds. I welcome any corrections. In working w/ this, I've discovered some new meaning, for me, in looking at & understanding odds. Thanks to all who have responded.
     
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  11. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    LOL......you really need to take a day off man. It would be good for your soul and your mental health as well.
     
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  12. Harley, Apr 18, 2016

    Harley

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    What's the matter casino worker 7uwin -- you have no valid rebuttal for my post so you resort to personal attacks ... Really sad, point remains that You can't tell us why casinos don't put the odds on craps tables can you ??!!!
     
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  13. wonko33, Apr 18, 2016

    wonko33

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    Sport bet odd and lines are not casinos evaluation of the odd of an outcome (well maybe opening lines are) , they just reflect how they reacted to the betting that is going on, a way to collect their vig whatever happens.
    maybe because they are confusing as hell and neophytes would complain all the time that they got paid 7:6 on their placed 6 but it says 6:5 too.

    And no game posts the odds of an event happening in the game (maybe except lottery, if you read the fine print) , they post payouts. Bias dice or not, they could post the payouts and still not be in any conflicts even for the "odds bet" they would not write "we pay the true odds", they don't advertise that. They would just say how much it pays.

    In every game the casino doesn't mention the odds of something happening, what many people call the odds are actually just the payouts. I think that is what is confusing Grizzoola, there are no odds vs actual odds in sports betting, just a board filled with payouts for certain events. Now if you buy books or do the math on many casino table games you can find the chances of an event occurring and such but it is not mentioned by the casino, all they mention are the rules and the payouts.
     
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  14. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    Dude, your bias dice shit is really getting old. And its excruciatingly boring as well.

    It doesn't matter what the topic of discussion is you will bring bias dice into it.

    We could being talking about the weather and you would say something like "you know we had el nino this year because the casinos use bias dice" give it a rest man..... we get it already!!!!!
     
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    Last edited: Apr 18, 2016
  15. Harley, Apr 18, 2016

    Harley

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    No casino dude - you don't get it already because you and your casino cronies are not doing your fucking fiduciary responsibility by keeping the unbalanced dice off the tables - read the laws and follow them - do your fucking job and quit cheating the patrons !!
     
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  16. TDVegas, Apr 18, 2016

    TDVegas

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    If Harley and Rick have figured out how to beat the game for all these years with these bias dice used all over town....

    Why are they trying to change it?

    Doesn't make sense.
     
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  17. Night Attack, Apr 18, 2016

    Night Attack

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    Ok Grizz, I'll give this a crack as it will be a nice one for me to get back into it given I've been 'off the board' for a while. Yes, I mean I've been off this board but the term 'off the board' was once used when events were literally off the board. In pre computer days books used to display all games on an actual board with odds alongside the teams. These were likely chalk boards and later became white boards and now of course it is all mostly electronic save for a few puritan houses out there. So when a game had injury concerns to a marquee or pivotal player such as a QB and his status was unknown, then they would remove the odds against the teams in that game on the board and replace them with 'OTB' signifying that game was currently off the board until further notice as far as any wagers being accepted. Since we are in the beginners section I thought some out there may enjoy that piece of info. Of course 'OTB' and off the board is probably a thing of the past and most would now associate OTB with off track betting.

    I may give my answer in a few posts as when a post gets too long and the subject matter is not of interest to some (right Fred) they can lose interest pretty quickly. I know I have at times.

    First thing I would say to you is that for the most part you should not look at odds at a craps table the same way as odds that a sports book may put out. You see, as some have already mentioned, craps odds are fixed or constant, but sports odds are theoretical and variable. Go to any craps table in the land and the true odds for your odds bet are the same, but go to any sports book in the land and the odds for the Cubs to win the World Series are not the same. And when you express odds you should do so as 5-6 or 6-5 and not 5:6 or 6:5 as the latter really express ratios which even you yourself have mentioned. Odds and ratios may look and mean the same but it is why many have difficulty understanding odds. Also mixing and matching terminology like odds and probabilities just adds to the confusion. The probability of a 7 showing is 1 in 6 and the odds are 5-1. Confused? Ed Zachary!

    Having said that, let us move on. Apologies if I cover ground already answered but I have a process and I need to hear it in my own head in order to sell it.

    Edited odds to look like 6-5 and not 6/5. That seems the right way though both are probably acceptable.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 18, 2016
  18. Night Attack, Apr 18, 2016

    Night Attack

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    1. BS777 has it right in that odds are mostly expressed against an event happening. So disregarding numbers that don't pertain to you if you have odds on an 8 for example, in this case there will be 11 possible outcomes for you. Six outcomes (the 7) against you and five outcomes (the 8) for you. Therefore the odds are expressed as six to five against, or 6-5, and there is no need to have the word against showing next to the odds. Since the higher number is first in the odds, then it is against.

    2. Assume now you are a dark side bettor and you actually want the seven to show, then the odds for you are five outcomes against you ( the 8) and six outcomes for you (the 7). So your odds are now 5-6 and expressed as six to five on and not six to five against given the smaller number is first in the odds. In essence you are betting more to win less and these odds are also commonly referred to as being in the red. This is the same in your example of GSW at odds of 1-2. It's only logical.

    3. I don't like to think of odds as better or worse but rather as shorter or longer. Thus, 9-2 odds are shorter than 8-1 odds but not necessarily better. Sure if you have a horse in the Kentucky Derby at 150-1 they are great odds since you get $150 to your $1, but how great are they if your horse jumps the rail, runs into the pond and drowns. That little nugget was courtesy of another poster on this forum who said that happened to a horse of his, though not specifically in the Derby. I think that poster's name wa Loui or something and if you missed it at the time I thought it was well worth repeating.

    4. Fred, FRED!! Stay with us.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 18, 2016
  19. Night Attack, Apr 18, 2016

    Night Attack

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    5. I would do away with trying to think of odds as actual odds versus payout odds. You're just confusing yourself and odds are odds. The odds as shown tell you what the payouts are. And although you can, don't bother converting them to fractions. Just more ways to confuse yourself. When odds are shown as 19-5 then that is not a fraction. It is how the odds are shown.

    6. So how does the book come up with odds? Firstly understand that the book doesn't give a rats on what the true odds of someone winning the World Series or the NBA is. All they care about is getting an even share of wagers across all teams to ensure they get the juice regardless of who wins. 7uwin mentioned this. So as money is placed on teams during the season the book will adjust their theoretical odds to encourage or discourage action on certain teams and ensure an even spread. If they don't do a good job of it at the start they could be exposed to heavy action on certain teams which could affect their juice at the end of the day. It's not uncommon for the books themselves to offload some action elsewhere if they are facing a loss somewhere.

    7. But they have to start somewhere right? So the first thing they need to do is come up with odds that will divide the betting public, not odds of who will actually win. They do a pretty good job of it these days as history provides a great indicator of what the public will do based on finishing positions of previous years. Of course there are other factors such as team personnel, trades, marquee signings, strength of schedule etc...and this is where these oddsmakers come in and earn their keep. And how do they come up with SAS odds of 19-5? Well by now it is just tweaking the odds to encourage or discourage a certain amount of action they require on the Spurs but an opening line would work something like this. In order to divide the public they figure that in a 24 game series the Spurs would lose 19 of those games and win 5 of them, thus 19-5 against. If they thought they would lose 20 of 24 the odds would be 20-4 or 5-1 at it's lowest denominator but so close are the numbers they need to balance, we get down to these 19-5 odds which is not that hard to calculate with computers etc... I the old days you needed really good math guys.

    8. Anyway, that's the way I see it and maybe I've got two marbles rolling around in my head. Hope it helps. I think I'm done. No wait, Harley and 7uwin, very entertaining but don't forget in a parallel universe somewhere you guys are actually bff's.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 18, 2016
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  20. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    There's no need for fiduciary responsibility this is a negative expectation game and nobody can control or influence a roll of the dice....you need to deal with the facts my friend.

    As far as "casino employee" goes I've been out of the biz since 2010 because I grew tired of the corporatization of the industry and my resume is a whole lot more in depth than "casino employee"

    I've been a corporate director of gaming, director of table games and director of casino operations in multiple properties.

    After 30+ yrs I've seen them come and I've seen them go in all shapes and sizes. You're just a cry baby loser who figures the only way that you can lose when the odds are against you is someone has to be cheating..........I've seen dozens just like you.......Pathetic
     
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