Match Play

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by JimRockford, Apr 3, 2018.

  1. random_roller, Apr 4, 2018

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    Some casinos (including Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, IL) don't allow simultaneous Banker / Player bets, even if they are for different amounts. Horseshoe (Hammond, IN) allows this play and has EZ Baccarat tables (commission free Banker bet). Even better, after 30 minutes of rated play in Le Cheng (Asian Gaming Room) using a Total Rewards card, the player receives a voucher for a free meal at Foo Noodle Bar (which is quite good).
     
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  2. von duck, Apr 4, 2018

    von duck

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    Yes on a hit, it works better, but what about the 35 other times, you would be minus $175, more ,for that group. So, pick your poison. :) Reminder biggest "guaranteed" walk. That was what we were solving for.
     
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  3. von duck, Apr 4, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    This would not be a guaranteed winner, even at a no commission table. Don't you find a no commission offer, somewhat askew? :)
     
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  4. random_roller, Apr 4, 2018

    random_roller

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    Even without running numbers, it's likely your original example is very close to, if not the optimal expected return.

    That being said, I'm willing to risk an additional $5 on midnight to fully cover the $600 ($300 PL, $300 match play coupon) on the PL in the example. The additional $5 is already covered by the "guaranteed" win by implementing the system in your example. I'm risking an additional $5 for a (slim) shot at an additional $150. Under these conditions, I'm willing to make that additional $5 bet on midnight.
     
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  5. random_roller, Apr 4, 2018

    random_roller

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    Mmm...free meal at Foo Noodle Bar after 30 minutes of rated play. Guaranteed winner, lol.
     
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  6. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 4, 2018

    The Midnight Skulker

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    The even money restriction limits us to PL, C, DP, and DC bets with the coupon; I assume we can make other bets with our own money. "Obviously", then, taking both sides of a number with offsetting bets, one of which uses the coupon, is the way to guarantee a profit. Von duck's solution uses a doey/don't, which will work. (I didn't run the numbers and so will accept his as being the optimum distribution of bets.)

    A different technique, labeled Can't lose, is to get behind a number with a "couponed" DP/DC, then place the same number. Without breaking up the $300 coupon into segments this would entail betting $320+coupon Don't on the comeout with an $11 midnight, $66 $99 three-way hopping 7s, and a $22 $33 yo, then placing the point for $462 if 6|8 and $465 if any other. According to the spreadsheet I've been working on for over a couple hours this play guarantees a profit between $12 (if points of 4, 5, 6, or 8 miss) and $477 (on a comeout 2 or 3) with an expected value of $112. (I'm too to lazy try to keep up with this conversation and go back through the proposed variations, so I can only guess that it guarantees less than the doey/don'ts suggested. I do not even have a guess about expected value.) Turns out the more you put with your match coupon the worse things get, understandable since the coupon is contributing proportionally less to your profit if the dice miss.

    Edit correction
    The original 7/11 hedges result in a loss to a natural -- $22 x 15 = $330 and you lose $397 on the DP/DC and the other props. The stated profit calculations were correct, however, suggesting a typo or an encephalic flatulation episode during the composition phase of the post.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 5, 2018
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  7. von duck, Apr 4, 2018

    von duck

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    How can they offer the banker bet, commission free.
     
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  8. random_roller, Apr 4, 2018

    random_roller

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    I briefly mentioned it in an earlier post. In commission-less baccarat, a winning Banker bet pays even money (e.g., no 5% commission). However, a 3 card Banker 7 total (i.e., K 3 4 or 2 K 5, etc.) that would otherwise have been a winning hand (e.g., Player total is 6 or less) under traditional baccarat is now a push. So the player gets something and gives up something, but the end result is a slightly lower HE on the Banker bet.

    In theory, this should speed up the game because the dealer & winning Banker bettors don't have to worry about calculating commissions.
     
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  9. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 4, 2018

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I spent a little more time playing with my spreadsheet, calculating min, max, and expected values for various coupon segment sizes looking for a guaranteed 10% profit (or close to it) without breaking down the $300 coupon. I then used the same distribution formulae for smaller coupon segments and came up with the following:
    MatchPlayCoupons.jpg

    Well, it was a fun way to exercise the neurons for about four hours, but without doing a rigorous comparison I will concede the doey/don't approach is superior.

    NB. I tried substituting a Field bet for the ET hedges and discovered almost immediately it was impossible to guarantee a profit with the Can't Lose method. Having to hop the sevens on the comeout is the killer.
     
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  10. von duck, Apr 5, 2018

    von duck

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    It doesn't matter what they can figure out, your not "cheating", or doing anything underhanded, though guys like you and TD, would probably look at it as cheating, because it's a guaranteed winner. A player would be foolish to use these freebies any other way. Why would you let the house entice you into risking something, if you can turn it into a "Lock". :) This is the equivalent of the house making a bet, with a very high "Player-edge". It's that old adage, "never give a sucker an even break" :D
     
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  11. random_roller, Apr 5, 2018

    random_roller

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    That's a pretty stupid, unsubstantiated statement with respect to how I might view such play. Not really surprising, coming form you. Care to elaborate?
     
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  12. Mssthis1, Apr 5, 2018

    Mssthis1

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    Personally, I would continue to try the cage every time to break them down. If you get pushback, try a different cage crew the next time if that's possible. Often times the rules for such coupons are interpreted very differently, depending on who you run into that particular day.

    If you decide to use the pass, don't pass being bantered around definitely hedge against the 12. A 12 would be catastrophic to your bankroll since you're grossly overbettig it. That is the whole theory the casino uses with the big match play coupons. By getting players to overbet their bankroll they'll generate much more revenue on the top line and a little more on the bottom line.
     
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  13. von duck, Apr 5, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Well, you see, since you never answered the question about how you knew which casino mssthis1 was referring to, it is assumed that you are an undercover, one of "them". It's not a crime, though it probably should be. If you or anybody else wants to kiss casino ass, it's alright by me, but when possible, I will always take the counterpoint. :)
     
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  14. Onautopilot, Apr 5, 2018

    Onautopilot

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    I have had the opportunity to do this quite often......the doey / don't (12) is the best option, I like free money, so I worked the math! :)

    This is considering you want the highest guaranteed return for the coupons.
     
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  15. von duck, Apr 6, 2018

    von duck

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    Guy said he was getting 5 of these match plays a week. At that rate they would yield over $600 a week, zero risk. Take the damn money! Why not? Might also be very revealing, what sort of reception he started receiving. If a casino offers a guy a chance to risk $300 on a single shot, they're not trying to do him any favors. Turn the tables, he'd be a fool not to. :)
     
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  16. random_roller, Apr 6, 2018

    random_roller

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    Speaking of ass kissers, Wendy, I don't recall you asking such a question. So go ahead and link to it and I'll check it out.

    That being said, it's not hard to look at an @8 page document and match the posted numbers with what was reported in that document to identify the casino. Of course, if someone had contemporaneously read several (older) posts from Mssthis1, he/she could have pieced the puzzle together or at least made a educated guess (which I did at the time).
     
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  17. yacraps, Apr 6, 2018

    yacraps

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    LOL...LOL...#@$king Roller..LOL..;)
     
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  18. random_roller, Apr 6, 2018

    random_roller

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    Aw, you know me, yacraps...Switzerland. But every now and then, I feel compelled to respond in kind, in part to get ready for the upcoming college football season on another forum.
     
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  19. von duck, Apr 6, 2018

    von duck

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    So, your not gonna answer the question are you, I didn't think so :)
     
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  20. random_roller, Apr 6, 2018

    random_roller

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    You seriously fail reading comprehension at times. I did answer it.


    If memory serves, Mssthis1 has talked about his "local" casino on several occasions. I am familiar with many casinos in Iowa because I have actually visited them. I have also taken time to map out casinos in that state for future visits. So it really wasn't too difficult for me to figure out which casino he was referring to in the older posts.

    Even without having read those older posts, anyone reviewing that linked document could also have figured it out the old fashion way by comparing the numbers.

    BTW, where's the link to the question you allegedly asked?
     
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    Last edited: Apr 6, 2018
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