Martingales - revisitng this dangerous strategy

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Gomez, Jan 9, 2019.

1. Gomez Member

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Johno's martingale

goal of 10 units per day for 7 days;
the second week, double the unit size;
double again for week 3;
for week 4, the final week, double again;
(or you can think of each week as a "level" -- levels 1, 2, 3 and 4)

1st week = \$5 units x 10 units/day x 7 = \$350;
2nd week = \$10 units x 10 units/day x 7 = \$700;
3rd week = \$20 units x 10 units/day x 7 = \$1,400;
4th week = \$40 units x 10 units/day x 7 = \$2,800;
\$350 + 700 + 1,400 + 2,800 = \$5,250

1st week martingale, \$5 10 20 40 (risking \$75)
2nd week martingale, 10 20 40 80 (risking \$150)
3rd week martingale, 20 40 80 160 (risking \$300)
4th week martingale, 40 80 160 320 (risking \$600)

This doesn't tell you what to be on: whether it could be on pass, don't pass, come, don't come, or something else.

This strategy starts with a low martingale that risks a total of \$75 (\$5 + 10 + 20 + 40), with a profit goal of \$50 per session. When you have a net profit of \$350, you move up to the next higher level. The beauty of this strategy is that playing the higher levels of the martingales never risks all of the accumulated profit -- by the time you've reached the higher levels, you've won more than any single martingale risks losing.

Anytime you lose a martingale, you can drop to the next lower level to rebuild your profit.

Gomez - a new member

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2. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 9, 2019

The Midnight Skulker Member

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Your calculations are a bit misleading, if not downright wrong. For starters you show
"1st week = \$5 units x 10 units/day x 7 = \$350" as total profit, but
"2nd week martingale, 10 20 40 80 (risking \$150)" as single series risk.​
Looks to me like you're comparing an apple to a bushel of apples.

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3. DeMango, Jan 9, 2019

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Are we talking about THE Johno, English chap who plays a lot of baccarat? Havenâ€™t heard of him in years, last seen on Gamblers Glenn.

Would have to live in a casino town to try this!

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4. Gomez Member

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Yes, believe it's the Johno you're referring to, DeMango. Copied this a few years ago, forget exactly where, possibly the Gamblers Glenn, and have been carrying it around since.

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5. von duck, Jan 10, 2019

von duck Member

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I got your daily risk at 15 units, 1+2+4+8, "Gomez-a-new-member."
What differance would a day make, more like per session. Interesting play, how much money have won with it, at The Red Rock?

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6. eagleeye2, Jan 10, 2019

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What is forgotten in any ""martingale"" play, is that it is CONSTANTLY FIGHTING the CASINO'S EDGE, which strategy only works for so LONG!!!

Think about it a bit, that CASINO EDGE will likely KILL your BANKROLL, unless you have
somehow developed an advantrage over that CASINO.

eagleeye2

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Last edited: Jan 10, 2019
7. Mssthis1, Jan 10, 2019

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What do you do if you lose the first four bets in the first four attempts? It happens more often than you might think.

17 pass line losers in a row is the record for what I've personally witnessed on craps. 19 losing hands in a row is the most I've had playing Blackjack.

It's the long losing spells that doom progressions that are too aggressive.

I was knocked off 5 times just last night on the negative progression I use on the dark side on the bubble. Takes 12 box numbers without a seven to knock me off. First 3 times I went up a unit in my bet sizing and recovered. Last time was back to back long rolls and I decided to pull the plug and call it a night. Next trip I'll start out 2 units higher than my base bet.

First losing session in 8 trips and it could have been a bankroll killer if I'd let it be.

Wife won \$400 net on bingo so the night wasn't all bad. Currently we're in the "one of us wins and the other loses" mode.

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8. von duck, Jan 10, 2019

von duck Member

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Lose 16 in a row? Do the math for a line bet. This type system, though it does NOT remove the house edge, DOES put the house in the position of having to do something pretty rare, which is about the best a non-advantaged player can hope for. Be forewarned, it IS a tedious grind. Does not require any special talents, but you need to be "long" on discipline. About 1/50.000 on the math question. IT WOULD NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN.

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9. von duck, Jan 10, 2019

von duck Member

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YOU GO TO THE NEAREST PAWN SHOP, WITH YOUR
WIFE OR GIRLFRIEND's, JEWELRY. 17 in a row is also the most I've seen, that I counted.

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10. James Hall, Jan 10, 2019

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