listen to the stick!

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by harrythewit, Mar 25, 2019.

  1. TDVegas, Apr 14, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Right...I was only responding that you said it's the "only" way to make money. There are many ways to win money. It all depends on how you wager, what your goals are, frequency of play, etc, etc.

    If I can bank $100 off my $100 bankroll....someone else may take $50 of that win and press it back on the table. If a 7 rolls, he's still up $50. I left with $100.

    Tomorrow is a new day....but I've also got a $50 head start over player B. That cannot just be dismissed out of hand.

    There's no right or wrong and I don't advocate not to press or parlay. One can make some decent coin IF the dice abide. There's only one long term basis that could be used to apply the merits of pressing or not. Beyond that, it's a personal decision.
     
    #61
  2. James Hall, Apr 14, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    As OBVIOUS as this statement might seem the fact still remains
    that so many players will see good rolls come and go with absolutely
    no clue how to take full advantage of them. They will stand with their
    old tattered betting strategy watching an opportunity slip away then
    at the end , lament of all the things they should have done and what bets
    they should have made and didn't. Some players go thru this over and over
    again and yet they do the same thing , vowing , better results the next time around.
    Nothing changes and yet the loudly proclaim , "NEXT TIME"
    Yep , obvious to some it may be , but to even more it remains always the same.
     
    #62
  3. James Hall, Apr 14, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    I might have missed it but I don't see where he said it
    is the , "ONLY" way to make money . What I am reading
    says it is "ONE" way to make money.
    This statement is an absolute fact. The way you wager is
    dependent totally upon the priorities you initially establish , there are
    among others , two upon which most players base there strategies.
    Each fixed in an effort to secure a final outcome .
    One would be to insure smaller losses while the other
    is set with a larger win in mind. Then there is yet another held
    by many advanced players.
    This is not entirely true. This thought process is part of a
    soothing mechanism much like the old ,
    "It's not whether you win or lose , it's how you play the game"
    If you are going to play the game your first priority should be
    "TO WIN"
    If you are losing the fact is , "You are doing something wrong"
     
    #63
  4. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 14, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    It is not that cut and dried. Variance is the enemy of the favorite regardless of who it is, the player or the house. The larger your bets, the larger your variance. Hence the derivation of the Kelly Criterion for an advantage player and the one-and-done criterion for the randie to optimize the chances for and amount of profit.

    While it may seem at first glance that a DI should spend every available minute at a table, the nature of DI, a physical activity, is such that the advantage such a player has decays over time due to mental and muscle fatigue. Theoretically, an advantage player who knew his/her rate of decay could optimize results by applying Kelly Criteria to his/her advantage at each shooting opportunity and terminating a session when the advantage became zero, but I have yet to see anyone report even having SWAGged a chart of advantage vs. playing time.
    True providing that advantage remains positive for the duration of the session.
    Yeah, what he said.
     
    #64
  5. TDVegas, Apr 14, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Right. I don't disagree but it kind of brings up another question over viability. Is the advantage happening for a part of the session (how long?, how advantageous? At the beginning? At the middle? At the end? Choppy? Etc.) and can the player actually know when the advantage is there and thus....take advantage on the spot?

    It's not cut and dry like card counting when the player has actually calculated his "time to go big".

    The "calculation" on dice seems to be a judgement call rather than having actual statistical evidence....as in card counting.

    I might also want to know if the "window of opportunity" isn't from beginning to end...why any player isn't simply making a minimal pass line wager to get the dice AND then after such rolls that he has determined "advantage".....then make additional bets.

    Why throw caution to wind and chuck it out there without knowing before? This is how a card counter works it. He's not going to play 5 hands from the start. He's going to wait until such time the advantage has been determined.....then push it out there.
     
    #65
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2019
  6. lone irish digit, Apr 14, 2019

    lone irish digit

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    This is Barney

    According to what the LID says in his latest best selling book "Play Craps Like a Boss," your above post is full of the shits. Although every personages is different the LID usually takes about an hour of dices tossing to get dialed in and other personages like the inspirational Mr. Halls is dialed in on first toss because he has done his homework on table conditions and warmed up by turd tossing in casino bathroom urinals much like the late UCDT. Also it is a proven fact that the longer time a DI crap personage is at computer keyboard the better their toss becomes.
     
    #66
  7. TDVegas, Apr 14, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    You don't read too well.
     
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  8. James Hall, Apr 14, 2019

    James Hall

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    TonyDvegasrules said:
    You can still have a successful session if you bet some of your winning hits back on the layout, you don’t necessarily have to parlay, but if you’re placing numbers, and you start to hit them take at least half of your win and add it to your original bet. This way you can still have some profit and you will be still processing your bets.

    If you bet hard ways, let’s say $25.00 hard 8 you also place it for $30.00 if your hard way hits you win $225.00 +$30.00 on your place bet. I go to $75.00 hard 8 and go to $60.00 place bet. This way you not only have a profit you can really start to profit if you have a repeat hard 8.


    I read fine this is what You responded to and I responded based on what you posted.
    Nice try but once again , YOU CAME UP SHORT.
     
    #68
  9. James Hall, Apr 14, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Barney
    When you say , "TURD TOSSING" are you referring
    to the clever way I put TDV's and his minion's dicks in the dirt???
     
    #69
  10. James Hall, Apr 14, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Always looking for a way to turn everything negative.
    ;)
     
    #70

  11. FredP

    FredP Member

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    How stupid can you get?
     
    #71
  12. James Hall, Apr 14, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    TonyDvegasrules said:
    The only way to make money is to bet aggressively if the shooter is rolling well and your bets are hitting.
    You must admit he does have a point. The ideal thing
    when numbers are being hit at a rapid rate , be aggressive.
    In most long rolls you will find a trend or two. Get on
    at the beginning and play it to the end.
    Yep he has a point .
     
    #72
  13. James Hall, Apr 14, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Not very , why are you looking to challenge someone to a contest??
    I would accept it but you have the advantage and
    my interests are focused elsewhere , I am working to
    constantly improve but you could probably find some takers
    among the , "GROUP of INSIDERS"
    Just post on the forum "HOW STUPID CAN YOU GET"
    I have heard it said that some of them take THAT as a challenge.
     
    #73
  14. James Hall, Apr 14, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Not very , why are you looking to challenge someone to a contest??
    I would accept it but you have the advantage and
    my interests are focused elsewhere , I am working to
    constantly improve but you could probably find some takers
    among the , "GROUP of INSIDERS"
    Just post on the forum "HOW STUPID CAN YOU GET" ??
    I have heard it said that some of them take THAT as a challenge.
     
    #74
  15. HornHiYo, Apr 14, 2019

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

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    Ya right. Now for the real refresher that you have swept under the rug, "You don't play live casino bank craps". Except maybe at Harrah's New Mexico where there is no craps. You're just a wannabe troll hoping to catch a newbie sucker or two. What a shucker.
     
    #75
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2019
  16. James Hall, Apr 14, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    I know you wish that was true. If it was you could feel better about yourself.
    BUT ALAS , such is not the case James does play
    much to your chagrin.
     
    #76
  17. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 15, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    A good point: advantage play at any casino game derives from a known initial state of the game.
    • In blackjack the composition of the shoe is some multiple of 52 cards less those already dealt. Given this composition the player's advantage/disadvantage can be calculated exactly, and optimal bets and strategy during the play of a hand determined.
    • In roulette the configuration of the wheel, its speed of rotation, the velocity of the ball on release, the rate of decay of the ball's trajectory, and any other elements deemed significant are either known exactly or can be approximated to provide a sufficiently accurate prediction of where the ball will land so the player can place bets on the numbers in that area.
    • In craps the major element at the core of advantage play (i.e. that it is the player who generates the random component) is also the element that is unknown at the beginning of each hand.
    Unlike other games incorporating physical ability, where players are given the chance to warm up ( e.g. bowling, golf, tennis), in craps the player must place a bet before being allowed to shoot. (You don't suppose that is why shooters are required to "have an interest in the point", do you?) Of course some of this uncertainty can be removed by playing on sparsely populated tables thereby permitting somewhat continuous shooting and hopefully minimizing inconsistency. Nevertheless, an advantage player will never know if the next throw will behave like the last one.
     
    #77
  18. Mssthis1, Apr 15, 2019

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    That is why I no longer press until I get at least most of what I have on the layout back. If you press too aggressively 1 toss that isn't perfect can wipe out the results of several good tosses.

    Another reason I press less aggressively now is I took the time to track my results and figure out what my tendencies are. In the last two years I've actually had less long rolls (20 plus) than random. I also have had 25% fewer rolls less than 6 than random. Needless to say pressing to much too quick isn't the route to take for me.

    It's a relatively small sample though, a little over 20,000 rolls in live play and slightly over 10,000 practice rolls.
     
    #78
    HornHiYo likes this.
  19. eagleeye2, Apr 15, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    Ms
     
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  20. eagleeye2, Apr 15, 2019

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    Mssthis1,

    Sounds like it's ""Close but NOT a Ringer""

    I'd say that you need more PRACTICE!!!

    eagleeye2
     
    #80