Jim’s Parlay Method

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by The Midnight Skulker, Aug 9, 2019.

  1. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 9, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    The reason I am writing up this method is that it is my response to casual (as opposed to serious) neophytes who ask me how to play the game. It was developed by Jim Ferr, who obviously had no imagination when it came to naming betting methods. I thought he originally posted it to rec.gambling.craps, but all I could find there were referrals to his web site, which apparently has been taken down.


    Vanilla JPM


    I did find a brief description of JPM on the Usenet newsgroup, however. Unfortunately that description is so brief that it leaves out what it is you bet on, so I will give my interpretation of the original method. You are looking at, and will be betting only on, Pass(P) and Don’t Pass(D). My way of keeping track of decisions – Jim does not give one – is to use part of my rack next to a divider,stacking chips left to right: red for D and white for P.
    1. Observe two decisions without betting.
    2. Begin betting with one unit that the decision before last will repeat. Hence if the two decisions were PP or PD you would bet Pass; if the decisions were DD or DP you would bet Don’t Pass. (If you use my chip stack tracking, as your bets are decided remove the left chip from your tracking stackand add a chip of the appropriate color to the right of the one remaining.Your stack should never have more than two chips in it.)
    3. Continue to bet that the decision before last will repeat, but after each win double your bet, up to a maximum of five units. Hence the progression is 1,2,4,5,5,5,5,… . After a loss you start the progression over at 1 unit.
    4. When betting D and the barred number is rolled on the comeout it is treated as a D decision but the next bet is not increased.
    The method is designed to take advantage of a series of repeating (PPPP… or DDDD…) or alternating (PDPD… or DPDP…) decisions.


    Improved JPM


    After the trip reported in the post linked to above Jim incorporated a way to take advantage of a pattern of alternating doublets (PPDDPPDD… or DDPPDDPP…). Unfortunately I do not remember the details nor could I find anything about it except referrals to his web site. IIRC he did manage to incorporate this modification while still recognizing the repeating or singly alternating patterns, but there was a lot of mumbo jumbo involved.

    Edit addition

    I realized I forgot to include the link to the Usenet thread in the previous section and while looking for it again I stumbled upon Jim's description of this improvement.
    For example, as I read it, for a series dpDDPPDDPP… ("dp" being the first two decisions that you only observed) your bets would be D,P,D,P,D,D,P,P.

    End of addition


    Delayed JPM


    This is my own modification designed to get my original investment in a series off the table ASAP. Simply make the same bet after your first paying decision (i.e. no bar number comeout) so you’re playing the rest of the series with “house money”. It means you will need five consecutive wins instead of only four to show a profit, but you will break even when the series ends after only one, two, or three wins.


    Odd JPM


    I vaguely remember Jim mentioning taking odds on the front side only (i.e. not laying them behind), but I do not remember him giving a progression for them. This one can get a little tricky after one or more natural winners, and I confess I have not actually used it.


    If you’re about to bet D then bet whatever amount you would have playing one of the other flavors of JPM. (IOW you don’t lay odds.) Otherwise bet only half of the next amount and take single odds with the other half. Using the notation “{flat} w/{odds}” the progression is therefore 1 w/0, 1 w/1, 2 w/2, 3 w/2, 3 w/2, 3 w/2, … . The split between flat and odds can be tailored to taste; for example “1 w/3” could be substituted for “2 w/2” and “2 w/3” could be substituted for “3 w/2”.


    With multiple natural winners my preference would be to make the same flat bet and add however many units I won to the odds bet. For example, suppose the decisions are running PDPD and I win my first bet (on P). The method calls for 2 units on D. Now suppose non-bar craps is thrown. The method calls for 4 units on P, so I bet 2 units flat intending to take 2 units odds.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 10, 2019
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  2. yacraps, Aug 10, 2019

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Midnight you are always very thorough...does this help
    http://web.archive.org/web/20030801152009/http://members.aol.com/jimferr/JimTheSystemMan.html#my pic
     
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  3. von duck, Aug 10, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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  4. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 10, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    That would be the one; much obliged for the link. I actually met Jim for lunch in Riverside, CA, on a weekend when I was on a multi-week visit to NAF El Centro. Hell of a nice guy. He used to take regular senior citizen fun bus trips to Jean, NV, but had to give them up when his wife developed some health issues. I lost all track of him when the Usenet newsgroup folded, but I suspect he passed through this forum shortly after I posted there that I was moving here, with the handle want2win, which was one he used occasionally in The Before Time.
     
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  5. VDC

    VDC Member

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    JPM, the Time before last is a decent method of play, but as you mentioned it wins on Chops and streaks but loses to any sequence of 2 in a rows and cross over to other side...or 2 and outs as i call them...Positive progression is interesting... something to test for sure...

    How has your success been using this pos prog?
     
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  6. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 17, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    If you're referring to PSOs I've heard them called "going Continental: two rolls, no coffee".
    Being as I am a "go for the gusto" guy positive progressions are in 99.44% of my strategies. As for JPM in particular my best guess -- I do not record what strategies I used in a session -- is that I'm pretty close to even, maybe slightly above. As I said in the OP I teach JPM to casual neophytes because it is simple, uses bets with the lowest HA, has little chance of getting destroyed utterly, has a decent chance of showing a profit, and can generate some excitement when you get a winning series.
     
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  7. yacraps, Aug 17, 2019

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Jeez Midnight the handle (want2win) trying to recall where and what forum I have seen that...Mr. Ferr from the little I have read of his website does sound like a neat gentleman...I think it could have been some roulette forum or maybe even the wizards site where I remember that handle
     
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  8. von duck, Aug 17, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    You're probably thinking of (Want2Lose), he's head of TDVegas fan club. :)
     
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