Is this an example of Dice Control???

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by TR31, Apr 9, 2017.

  1. TDVegas, Apr 10, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Isnt this similar to what we went thru when a poster was using cumulative probabilities to try and justify an "89%" chance to win?

    What's with these guys trying to use cumulative probabilities when it doesn't apply?
     
    #41
  2. Onautopilot, Apr 10, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    He mentions a Chi-Square test, which is a valid method of indicating the probability of a bias. But his cumulative example of the odds of some exact sequence happening is definitely not a test for bias. All it shows is the odds of some random sequence occurring.

    He would need to know what he was looking for specifically.....more of one face of the dice, less of another. He would also need an adequate sample size, 15 rolls is not adequate for any valid confidence level.

    How many ways are there to arrange a 10 roll sequence for example. The odds of rolling any one specific sequence is a very large number. But that is a before the fact exercise.

    If he were to say, I am going to roll this particular sequence before he begins, then in fact rolls that sequence, or something very close, then that would be a whole different animal....the odds of doing that would definitely indicate an introduced bias.

    But to reverse engineer a sequence and say, look at the odds of that happening is nothing but confirming the cumulative probability of any sequence happening in random chance games.

    I am not calling him a liar when he claims this level of DC at a bubble machine, I just think he is using a method of attempting to validate the claim that is not acceptable. He is probably fooling himself by doing that. And the level he claims using that flawed method, is not happening in my opinion. If it were, the guy should be taking his dog and pony show on the road, and quit talking about it on any public forum!
     
    #42
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2017
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  3. TDVegas, Apr 10, 2017

    TDVegas

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    This is most ludicrous thing I've ever heard about DC or DI.

    It's dice control because you bet before rolling?

    So, if I bet the 6 and 6 rolls...I'm dice controlling?
    If I bet the horn and 2-3-11-12 rolls...I'm dice controlling?
    If I bet hard 6-8 and a hard 6 or 8 shows...I'm dice controlling?

    Check please.
     
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  4. badddoin, Apr 11, 2017

    badddoin

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    One thing I know for shit-sure:
    If I was able to roll 10 hardways in 15 rolls with even a little consistency, I would spend zero time trying to convince strangers on the internet of my abilities.

    What could possibly be the upside?
     
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  5. betwthelines, Apr 11, 2017

    betwthelines

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    tr31, i assume the above contains a typo and you meant to say "have be(en) DOING"...if that is not correct, well then never mind...otherwise:

    have been schmave been..."have been" is past tense...we are not looking for statistics or idiosyncratic claims about what those statistics show or mean...where successful rolls are claimed for influence just as not so successful or terrible ones are hidden behind the completely true, "well, we can't make it happen all the time..."

    more often these latter efforts are either ignored or more certainly forgotten...variance, a critically important probabilities mathematics term and concept that frequently is not even given a nod in much of the DI world or not even considered in the big rolls...it is easy to do this because unlike all other branches of mathematics, where once problems are solved deal with certainties--even statistics, which deals with the past, is, if the data is sound, a manipulation of things certain--whereas probabilities math deals with expectations, making it easy to camouflage variance with talk and claims.

    say what you are going to do...and then go do it under witness...it is pretty straightforward...pretty simple.

    my post, excerpts of which you quoted, began by asking, "why is that so difficult to understand?" i would repeat that question here...

    now tdv is actually willing to witness it for free...indeed even at some expense to himself...just for the thrill of seeing it done...there is no monetary aspect but if successful he offers the player big chops and great praise on the forum and even suggested that it could soften juuusst a tetch his profound DI skepticism ...but by far the biggest benefit of success for many DIers would be the nirvana of watching tdv eat some big crow pie...

    OTOH the Tough Craps player, since he is a bit more of a gambler maybe, certainly a more risky one, has instead offered bets against the claims of influence...(see post #17 in
    http://crapsforum.com/threads/bohunk-challenge-revised-and-expanded.15933/
    for the latest iteration of the bohunk challenge)

    either way talk and claims, which are cheap, do not cut it..say what you are going to do...and then go do it under witness...if it takes 5 hours or 5 days before the skilled one "gets in the zone", so be it...the player decides (before the roll of course) which rolls "count".

    since you yourself are so skilled and assured in your talents perhaps you might want to take up either challenge...any bubble or live table in any legal casiono is an eligible venue -- even several tables or bubbles or venues are allowed for the same challenge...

    win or lose, it will prove or mean not a fucking thing and of course there are no guarantees, but if you possess the skills you claim, you would either be at a distinct advantage to make some pretty good money for very little risk or else experience the ecstasy of putting tdv's shit right out in the street...

    now most DIers have declined the challenge for some of the valid objections that i also outlined in the post from which you quoted...but you have to admit that ---rightly or wrongly, correctly or not--- their declining still leaves the residue "out there" that they simply lack the confidence in their actual skills since if they possessed or actually believed they possessed them and since they are obviously (presumably at least) GAMBLERS, why in the hell would they turn down a bet where they have an advantage?

    while this might not be fair in some cases, it is also not an irrational opinion/sense to hold to in the least...indeed it is a logical one to conclude...to cast aspersions on the character or to hurl personal insults at those skeptics who hold to that and similar ideas says more about the one hurling the darts than it does about the target...

    other than the fact there is heated, vehement disagreement ---indeed some where reaching agreement may not even be possible---no one has standing to conclude anything at all about the content of the character of those tormentors based upon such opinions...holding to such sensibilities/opinions offers ZERO intelligence as to the general state of mind regarding more important things (this is a fucking craps forum for gawd sakes!) or how often the holders lay awake at night musing about something said on this forum!...lol..ZERO intelligence.

    attack the ideas not the person.

    ok...that particular rant over...where was i? o yeah...OTOH some DIers, who truly believe in their skills have accepted the challenge...they are confident that their expertise offers them an advantage on some of the bets, and "know" that they have an advantage...a couple of them are adamantly convinced that they will win! and only the logistics of the matter--a thing admitted from the get-go as something that would pose the most difficulties--has precluded the beginning of the contests...

    the person putting up the generous money merely doubts such influence and is doing nothing more nor less than putting his money where his mouth is and making a simple bet against it...these DI players too are simply doing the same: putting their money where their mouth is...

    even some self proclaimed random rollers too, going in eyes wide open knowing they have no mathematical advantage but also know a FUN bet when they see it have have done the bohunk challenge...one such roller did it twice on the bubble, losing badly on the first bet...WINNING on the second!

    when you have to do...do, don't talk

    tom p

    "when you have to shoot...shoot, don't talk" --eli wallach as tuco, The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, 1966
     
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  6. KokomoJoe4, Apr 11, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    Fred,

    How do you know that EE is not hiding from TDV?
     
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  7. Onautopilot, Apr 11, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    But you are using just select roll sequences, and not the entire dats from all your rolls. A chi-square test is a valid way to arrive at some percentage of confidence if used properly. You can't pick and choose which roll sequences to enter into the equation.

    When you just pick one 15 roll sample, you are only confirming what the odds of that particular sequence has of appearing, not some percentage of bias confidence.
     
    #47
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  8. TDVegas, Apr 11, 2017

    TDVegas

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    His claimed numbers are so outrageous...I've generally dismissed the postings beyond the enjoyment factor and a few laughs.

    70% - 7's after employing his "nuke option" to dismantle a player he deemed a nuisance? Yes, because someone who can actually do this is going to waste energy on this guy.

    Players wagering thousands on him on machines that are likely set with much lower minimums than their Vegas counterparts. I didn't realize Reno was a bastion of $1,000 bubblers. Even our resident tough player had to leave the bubble to run to the live table to continue his betting progressions here in Vegas.

    His characterizations for defining dice control are...to say the least, odd. He's using cumulative data. We've seen that here before. He's posting pictures, then claiming some "real time" happening...as if it hasn't already happened.

    He posted pictures after the fact...then claimed he "set the photos" to dismiss the cherry picking argument? What does "set the photos" even mean?

    He characterizes his dice control as valid because..."he bet the numbers"....???

    Ultimately, tomp said it best. GO DO. My vehicle is still gassed and ready to go.

    Read, enjoy, laugh...these are tongue in cheek posts, fluff, IMO.
     
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  9. TDVegas, Apr 11, 2017

    TDVegas

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    I believe he's also calling a 12.....a hardways result. :confused:
    This isn't even right...unless the game of craps has been reconfigured to call snake eyes and boxcars "hardway" results.

    Now I see what he did. He's claiming 6 "hardways" in a row....and calling a 12 a hardways result. LOL.

    What's a soft 12?

    7-5?

    He kept saying he rolled 6 hardways in a row...and "you idiot, TDVegas...can't you see this"???

    Little did this idiot TDV know that TS31 has invented a new craps language.
    A 12 is a hardways result.:confused:

    No. YOU made the mistake. No one on this planet calls a 12 a hardways result. You rolled three hardways in a row (10-10-10). I rolled doubled that....Six in a row (4-10-10-10-10-8)
     
    #49
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2017
  10. Bases loaded, Apr 11, 2017

    Bases loaded

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    12 - all the spots we got
     
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  11. KokomoJoe4, Apr 11, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    By strict definition, a hard way result MUST show the same two numbers on top (y-axis).

    At the same time, the z-axis as you look front to back will not surprisingly also show the same two numbers. No, not the same two as seen on top, but the same in terms of the same number of dots showing on the front of each die.

    In keeping with the same strict definition, and probably not as obvious, the only remaining axis through the dice MUST contain the [1] and the [6] on each die. As a result of this formality, the [1][1] and the [6][6] are not correctly called hard ways, since both ones and both sixes are enclosed in the x-axis and can not display in a hard way outcome.

    Also, as TDV states, the two and the twelve can not be made "easily".
     
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  12. KokomoJoe4, Apr 12, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    Finally having read through the thread, I am surprised that no one has questioned what exactly the button pusher does that influences the dice. This is a first - with the exception of a joke on the matter, I have never heard of bubble influence, ah BI.

    DI guys who criticize bubble play do so because bubblers are unable to handle the dice. That is, they are unable to exert their touch on the cubes.

    Please explain how the proposed influence is imparted at this game.
     
    #52
  13. Bases loaded, Apr 12, 2017

    Bases loaded

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    Last encounter with the Aruze Shoot to Win bubble was in September of 2015. I had a 30+ hand at Westgate on my birthday. Whole table was cheering, we all made a nice win.

    My technique was to push the button as soon as I was allowed. Before she could get the words "Push...." out. When I hear the "P" of push I pushed. Liked when I got a nice solid launch into the roof of the bubble.
     
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  14. yacraps, Apr 12, 2017

    yacraps

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    Yeah the sistas got it going
     
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  15. TDVegas, Apr 12, 2017

    TDVegas

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    A player has 20 seconds while the dice "vibrate and tumble" within the bubble (Aruze version only, not Interblock version). Since the bubble is a relatively small contained cylinder...some try and wait for certain dice combinations "on top" before pushing the button. Whether or not (because of the small size of the container and large dice) the dice "on the bottom" have less chance to appear upside for a final result is the question. Might be. The dice will not always tumble "strong"....similar to a DI limiting or trying to limit bounce.

    I do have my own methods on looking for certain upside combinations before pushing the button.

    Is it credible? In all likelihood...no more or less credible than DI. No one has done any demonstration of either. At least that's how I look at it. While you are not "handling" the dice physically...you are "handling" the dice in another manner.

    Maybe I've said too much.:)
     
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  16. Onautopilot, Apr 12, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    After playing the bubble, and watching a couple people trying to "influence" the dice, I believe it might be easier to do that on the bubble machine verses the live table. Not that I think either can be done with any consistency, or true skill.

    BUt you have a little time while the dice are vibrating before you have to "shoot" them. You can select a top number out of the available ones, then push the button. There are no diamonds to contend with, and the dice do not always hit the top of the bubble, and if they do it is smooth.

    No chip stacks to contend with, no stick person interfering with your throw, no hands over the rail, etc.

    One person I watched doing this had a couple pretty good rolls, and we both made some money.

    Of course I am smiling as I write this! :)
     
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  17. Onautopilot, Apr 12, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    You beat me again by 3 minutes....should have waited and finished my coffee. :)
     
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  18. TDVegas, Apr 12, 2017

    TDVegas

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    I put on one of these so I can type and drink my coffee at the same time.:)
    image.jpeg
     
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  19. TDVegas, Apr 12, 2017

    TDVegas

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    We do have one guy on the bubble referred to as "The closer". He's been known to clear out ("close") the right siders when he bubbles....like a fart in an elevator. ;)

    Bubble influence?

    I should switch on his rolls instead of waiting out his roll.
     
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  20. Twelve4s, Apr 12, 2017

    Twelve4s

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    This device was originally invented for beer consumption. Not sure about patent infringement? Can't be too careful these days.
     
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