Iron cross.

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by RouletteGhost, Aug 6, 2019.

  1. RouletteGhost, Aug 6, 2019

    RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Member

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    over the last couple of weeks I’ve had the pleasure of playing, and winning, at craps

    I have a stupid question

    Negative progressions are never a good idea

    However I wonder if a negative progression would work out with the iron cross?
     
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  2. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 6, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    No reason why it shouldn't. All you need is a bankroll of a little under $600 that you're willing to lose a little more than half the time. (That's on a $5 table with minimum bets.)
     
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  3. RouletteGhost, Aug 7, 2019

    RouletteGhost

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    Yea I know

    If it worked everyone would be doing it

    I was just thinking. If when a point is made, make the iron cross bet. If you 7 out and lose then wait until the point is made again, increase the bet and bet again on the iron cross using a negative progression on the loss.

    If you have a good enough bankroll you’d need to 7 out several times before any number but the 7 hits

    In theory it sounds good. I was messing with the craps simulator last night.

    Also hand luck buying the 4/10. Pull down on a win, wait til next point is set then do it again. If 7 out double up. Maybe dumb but hey it was a simulator.
     
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  4. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 7, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    You will certainly win more times than you lose; the catch is that you need six wins -- admittedly a SWAG -- to make up for each loss. If you're going to use this strategy I suggest using what I call a Buffered Martingale where you do not try to recoup a loss with a single winning series. Another idea I just had is to incorporate a winning progression on numbers that hit, maybe something like a staggered progression (take, press, take, press, ...) on 4, 9, and 10 (i.e. place and field winners) and straight press on 12 (3x in field).
     
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  5. von duck, Aug 7, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Have a stupid question? :confused: Boy did you come to the right place! :) All in all, a negitive progression will be successful more often than most any other strategy. Even with the Iron-cross, you still lose 1 time in 6, so three loses in a row should occur about 1/ 216 times. How much money do you figure to take down in 216 throws, and, how much would this bum scenario cost you? :cool:
     
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  6. von duck, Aug 7, 2019

    von duck

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    One correction here. If it worked, NOBODY would be doing it. :cool:
     
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  7. RouletteGhost, Aug 7, 2019

    RouletteGhost

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    The plan I had in mind and executed flawlessly on the wizard simulator was as follows

    Once point it set

    - bet iron cross

    On any win take the bets down and wait for another point to be set. So if you win on field you pull everything down and wait until 7 out or the point being hit and a new point being set. If 5, 6, or 8 hits same thing, pull off and wait till new point


    It is a little different than a martingale but what I did was if I lost I doubled up and on a win stayed at that level before going back to the base $10 bets.

    So if you have enough for 4 steps to lose it would have to look like this

    Attempt 1

    -Point set
    -iron cross bet
    -7 out

    Attempt 2

    -new point set
    -iron cross bet
    -7 out

    Attempt 3

    -new point set
    -iron cross bet
    -7 out

    Attempt 4

    -new point set
    -iron cross bet
    -7 out

    With the above scenario I don’t think I’ve even seen in my times playing a 7 out happen right after the point is set 4 times in a row. I’m sure you guys have seen it though I haven’t played nearly as much as the people here

    It would be really unlucky to 7 out immediately after the point is set four times in a row I’d think.

    This will probably be another failed thought I have regarding gambling. But I do believe playing a “martingale” on the iron cross can at least pay for a few dinners. It’s not betting every time it’s only after a new point is set. One bet. Pull down then wait for new point. Only way to lose is a 7 out each time.

    I think iron cross fails because you bet too much and it takes too long to recover. It’s like betting 35 numbers on roulette. The loss is terrible

    That’s why I advocate for limiting exposure and only doing it after a new point is set one time and then wait again for new point
     
    #7
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2019
  8. von duck, Aug 7, 2019

    von duck

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    You need to define which "iron cross you are using, there is more than one version. :cool:
     
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  9. Mssthis1, Aug 7, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    The odds of a seven in a random game is 1 in 6. The odds of 4 consecutive point sevens is 6x6x6x6=1296 or once every 1296 attempts or hands. The thing with occurrences like that is you may see it 3 times in 100 attempts or you may not see it for 5000 or more attempts. There's no way to know, that's why it's called random.
     
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  10. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 7, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Correct; what Mssthis1 said. Unfortunately, when you win on 5, 6, or 8 you win only $4 (with $74 $44 at risk). Takes a lot of those to recoup a single loss.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 7, 2019
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  11. von duck, Aug 7, 2019

    von duck

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    4 straight PSOs, will only happen about once in 1300 points, but, if you remain at the same bet after the first win, then you also have to deal with the problem of cumulative losses. Give me an example of exactly how much you bet, on which numbers, at the ten dollar level. Assume a point of 5. :cool: Another problem I see, is that it take more than one winner, to cover the previous loss. Fill in the "blanks" and ill crunch the numbers for you. :)
     
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  12. RouletteGhost, Aug 7, 2019

    RouletteGhost

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    Thanks for the replies

    At work right now so really can’t crunch numbers

    I was thinking, if the one iron cross bet loses then double up after the next point. When win stay at that level after next point is set. THEN go back to base bet after the second win

    A negative progression would need to be used for this to work

    It’s not a static bet every throw of the dice it’s only after a point is set then pull down. Maybe good for the bubble.

    A lot of the wins will be field as well

    The iron cross bet martingale only after a point is sent one time

    To start
    $10 on 5
    $12 on 6
    $12 on 8
    $10 on field


    Can be aggressive and just hope the 7 doesn’t show 4 times in a row immediately after point is set
     
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  13. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 7, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    My bad in Post #10, which I corrected; I was placing across, not just the non-field numbers. Nevertheless, with a weighted average win of $8.20 (assuming 2x2/3x12 field) you need over five wins to recover from a single loss without a progression. Without running any numbers -- thank you von duck for volunteering to do that -- I have to think it will take a pretty hefty bankroll or zero losses to avoid perdition unless all you're looking for is a trip to the all-you-can-eat buffet.
     
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  14. DeMango, Aug 7, 2019

    DeMango

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    In conjunction with a legitimate influenced toss it will work. But that toss would be better served attacking the ats. Throwing that 2 and 12 pays a lot more than 2,3 to 1.

    Or, almost as good, learn to throw horn numbers and attack the crapless table!
     
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  15. RouletteGhost, Aug 7, 2019

    RouletteGhost

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    This is from another forum

    He is doing exactly what I’m talking about

    Betting once after the point is established then taking the bets down until the next point is set. A one time bet only after the point. “Martingale” the loss

    “waiting for the point to be established, then placing the 5 for $10, the 6&8 for $12 each, and the Field for $5 (Level 1). After the next roll, pull down and wait for the point to be hit OR the 7-out.
    IF the point is hit, wait for the next point to be established and start over...
    IF the the 7 pops and you lose the 39, Martingale to a $60 5, a $72 6&8 each, and a $40 Field bet (Level 2).
    Next roll take all down and begin anew.
    IF a 7 pops, then the next Martingale is a $425 5, a $510 6&8 each, and a field bet of $300 (Level 3).
    My buy in is for 2,200 and only play once every other week or so, that may not be considered consistent play.
    I have been to Level 2 more times than I can count, and Level 3 once a session, Two sessions I hit Level 3 twice.
    I only play for 3 hours and I cash out. I guess the tables run 75-100 rolls per hour.
    My sessions have netted 224, 238, 189, 259, 315, 203, 231, 238, 133.
    I have not busted in these last 9 sessions??”
     
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  16. DeMango, Aug 7, 2019

    DeMango

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    Lucky him, hopefully lucky you.
     
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  17. RouletteGhost, Aug 8, 2019

    RouletteGhost

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    Hey, I can dream can’t I?

    I think the reason iron cross isn’t a bet the pros suggest because it’s high risk low reward. And that’s understandable

    But who has actually really tried it this way? Not every roll

    I’ll try it with a small bankroll on bubble craps. One by me pays 3x
     
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  18. von duck, Aug 8, 2019

    von duck

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    :confused: On the bubble, you will have a near zero chance of success. Remember who told you. :cool:
     
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  19. mynameisgambling, Aug 9, 2019

    mynameisgambling

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    I also think your chance of success is close to 0%
     
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  20. RouletteGhost, Aug 11, 2019

    RouletteGhost

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    i dont know much about bubble craps....but i do know i have won on it, lol

    its like airball roulette, is it rigged? who knows
     
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