I play a special method on Pass Dont Pass.

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Stuart Brandt, Apr 27, 2018.

  1. TDVegas, May 3, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    True.
    Uh, they have the mathematical edge over the short haul too. It's called house edge. It's called paying winning bets at less than fair value and taking losing bets in whole.
    True.
    Whether he plays for 2 minutes or 24 hours...his bets are STILL subject to the vig.
    see below...your (his words)

    "Craps is a totally random, non-dependant, negative expectancy game of chance"

    well, which is it? totally random, non dependent or one can spot a trend? These two statements from Tony are totally at odds with each other.
     
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  2. eDiceGuy, May 3, 2018

    eDiceGuy

    eDiceGuy Member

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    I am cursed with an obsessive-compulsive disorder which pushes me to research any subject that I am currently interested in. In addition, I tend to retain what I read, which helped me to be successful in my technical career. I co-wrote a number of technical publications.

    I know other members have mentioned teaching craps, etc.

    Just curious.
     
    #162
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  3. Mssthis1, May 3, 2018

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    They are not 50/50. The 12 on comeout rolls assures that just as the 0's do in roulette.

    You are correct. Casino's have no fear of guessers and all systems are nothing more than sugar coated guesses. You're guessing that a catastrophic to the bankroll run won't occur while you are playing.

    PS: I play systems a lot. I also know they are not bulletproof. You are always potentially one session from ruin.
     
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  4. Stuart Brandt, May 3, 2018

    Stuart Brandt

    Stuart Brandt Member

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    YOU FORGOT THE 12 IS A PUSH ON THE COMEOUT IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE DONT PASS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,THIS IS CORRECT YES.?????
     
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  5. Stuart Brandt, May 3, 2018

    Stuart Brandt

    Stuart Brandt Member

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    ALL IN CRAPS, BACCARAT AND ROULETTE IS AN EDUCATED GUESS, YOU WANT GUARANTEES PLAY THE STOCK MARKET,,,,,,,,,,,,,,OOOPS YOU CAN LOSE YOUR A$$ THEIR TOO.
     
    #165
  6. Mssthis1, May 3, 2018

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    That is correct If you're playing the don't pass. If you guessed the pass side it's a loss. That is why the house edge is half of 2.78% on the don't side. A bet that is a loss on heads and a push on tails is not 50/50.
     
    #166
    Last edited: May 3, 2018
  7. KokomoJoe4, May 3, 2018

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    It stands to reason that there are ways to gamble whereby you will ALMOST NEVER lose.

    By necessity, this involves the use of progressions upon a loss, designed to recapture some/all of the previous losses.

    Call the progressions whatever you will, they all work by the same principle.

    As we all know, the problem with these systems that almost never lose is the one time they do lose. Until this is encountered, the statement "I never lose using this system" IS accurate.

    Why don't more people use this system of play? Likely because the wins will be small, occurring finally after chasing down consecutive losses with larger bets.

    There is NOTHING wrong with a lot of winning sessions, but there isn't much excitement in chasing losses until you get a head by a few chips.
     
    #167
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  8. James Hall, May 3, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Don't worry about spotting a trend , simply be on at the beginning and ride it till the end
     
    #168
  9. von duck, May 3, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    That's good advice SIR. :)
     
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  10. James Hall, May 3, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    I try to help
     
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  11. The Midnight Skulker, May 3, 2018

    The Midnight Skulker

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    It was called the Hunter System, and the smoke and mirrors showed the system worked IF the "fuzzy logic" used to determine which side to bet on wins 99.4% of all sequences. That IF was the part that got buried in the verbiage.

    On the old Usenet newsgroup Jim Ferr originally claimed but then recanted that his Jim's Parlay Method (JPM) "seemed to work" when there were 3-6 players at the table. I have no idea if the Ellis-Stuart progression is anything close to what JPM uses, but the description of what streaks the method is designed to exploit suggests Avant Dernier rather than the Hunter System's TAT is used to select what to bet on.
     
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  12. yacraps, May 3, 2018

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    They use the Avant Dernier (before last) to take care of the (what they call the opposites banker player red black pass dont pass ect) then Ellis came up with opposite-time-before-last (otbl) to take care of the terrible twos the book I mentioned to Stuart that was written in 1910 the author uses or suggests to bet one for the run and then one for the intermittence with a kind of a
    D'ALEMBERT (dull-um-bear :)) 1-2-3-6 progression on even chance bets I use it a lot with a different progression...1910... ya... and we think we are so advance I luv when people re-invent the wheel...o_O
     
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  13. Stuart Brandt, May 3, 2018

    Stuart Brandt

    Stuart Brandt Member

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    Nobody has reinvented anything Ellis is a good guy and helps people to we hope to win instead of losing, nothing we are doing is NEW remember Ellis is 78 years old guys.
    But people need to be Teachable And Coachable even myself Ellis helps me a lot and has spent hours on the phone with me as I played real money at BetPhoenix with his voice coaching me as I was playing.with awesome results.
    Actually, the phone coaching helped BIG time to get me to the next Baccarat level and so I have learned in a couple of months what others take a year.

    Ellis is a good guy and is trying to help folks don't make it like he is a bad guy in any way he would not spend his last days teaching if he did feel he could help others.

    NOW ELLIS is 78 years old and HAS HAD A STROKE THEN A HEART ATTACK AND A FEW MONTHS AGO HE GOT CDIFF, so I did ask him and who knows but his methods do work for me when I play craps or Baccarat, in fact, he has been on the phone with me for a couple of sessions on Betphoenix playing real money on baccarat and he told me what and how to play and I told him the exact results and was shocked at how good he was at Baccarat.
    He had his little scorecard and told me what to play by the results the table offered.



    Stuart
     
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  14. yacraps, May 3, 2018

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Stuart my first reply to you I said Ellis was a neat man... my post was in no way knocking Ellis or even you..way back when.. I knew Ellis was getting up there in age and thats why I responded to you I am glad he was still standing and not dirt napping what I stated was nothing but fact and I wish you all the good fortune when you start applying this way of betting craps...you see what I posted was to help you not ridicule you the 1910 version accomplishes the same thing you are doing the only difference its much simpler Ellis"s twist with sap counts and net betting up1 dn 2 is all good just a little more complex I like to keep things simple
     
    #174
  15. tabletop123, May 3, 2018

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Excellent Post Stuart. After coming off of a very nice win, & reading your post....I might just have to stay...Spot On!
    Dice Influencing is a farce when ya bet every number, or four numbers, or even three numbers. Just too much exposure to the Seven Out!
    A TRUE Dice Influencer SHOULD be able to catch a point use the appropriate Dice Set to " Target" ( I DID NOT SAY SNIPE) the point number & the Sister number.

    I have always believed that tossing dice JUST to avoid the Seven Out is like going through a dark tunnel with only a VERY DIM flashlight!

    If you were to ask 10 Dice Influencers....they would say: I just toss to avoid the Seven, because that's what Dice Influencing is all about! Lol.

    You see....they believe that since you can't "SNIPE", hop numbers, that using a chosen dice Set to Target TWO specific numbers ( parent, & sister number, ie 5/9, 6/8 etc is a futile attempt.

    I even read a Old Post wherein Howard RocknRoller said: " I just let the numbers fall as they may" as I'm Just trying to avoid the Seven.

    I just think the "Better" shooters concentrate on zeroing in on 1-2 numbers, & bet appropriately.

    I will be the FIRST to say that there's not much influence in a Dice toss, but ya better believe that I will ALWAYS toss the dice Focusing on hitting 1-2 numbers. I might NOT succeed, but none of that " lets see what the table will give me" betting style.

    Now, I am not saying that I'm gonna let a number keep hitting & just ignore it. I am simply saying that I toss with more intent than just " let's see what happens"!

    Ya gotta have a SPECIFIC purpose BESIDES just avoiding the Seven out & hoping your number/s appear.

    Might as well just play Bingo if your just HOPING your number/s FINALLY appear. Most rolls are generally short so ya better have a better plan than tossing long hands.

    Now, remember....I just had a very nice win so my opinion on things are " Gold"!.......UNTIL the next Nut Clipping! Lol
    Funny how Ya got this game all figured out when you're winning huh?

    Craps.....a dangerous game that we play!
     
    #175
  16. Stuart Brandt, May 3, 2018

    Stuart Brandt

    Stuart Brandt Member

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    Wow, great post tabletop123 good stuff.

    Stuart
     
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  17. DeMango, May 4, 2018

    DeMango

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    Top, I have found out the hard way that sister#s may not be the way to go. I am now concentrating on high or low. Think 8,9 or 5,6. Let the come out roll determine your direction!
     
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  18. Mssthis1, May 4, 2018

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    I agree. Sister number is not the way I would go. If you happen to be influencing the dice, it may only be one die. If one die is landing on 6 more often you don't want your money sleeping on the low numbers.
     
    #178
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  19. tabletop123, May 4, 2018

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    I wish you well, but that's just the way that I do it.
     
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  20. KokomoJoe4, May 4, 2018

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I expect to lose because the math expects me to lose, but I play in a way that will maximize a win when the dice tumble the correct way for me.

    Incidentally, like you, I also use only the P, DP, C or DC; no place bets or sucker bets for me. In this sense, both you and I have a damn near 50% chance of winning on every single bet.
     
    #180
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