I got 2%, not 1%

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by TR31, Dec 23, 2017.


  1. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    I was at the promo and ran about $7,500 coin-in through Aruze Craps and I thought I would get $75 in free slot play (FSP). Image my shock when I checked with the kiosk and got instead $150 in FSP.

    The way the promo worked was $1 coin-in was worth 1 penny in FSP so $100 in action was with $1 FSP. Once you get the FSP, you play either video poker or video blackjack and get 95% to 97% of your FSP into cash.

    Since I didn't understand what happened, I went to the slot club where a nice person told me since I had recently gone up a slot tier level, the promo was worth double. I had no idea that the promo was that good or I would have bet more.

    The bad news was that was the last day of the promo so it was a nice extra $75 FSP that I had not anticipated.

    Did you know if you bet $15 on the pass & don't pass level and if the shooter rolls an 8, you could place $30 odds bet on don't pass and $25 odds bet on pass for a $85 in total action worth $1.70 in FSP at the 2% level. Usually, when I get 2% in FSP, I just bet $30 pass & $30 don't pass with a $1 on box cars for a guaranteed $1 loss when a boxcar doesn't show up (35 out of 36 rolls). When the point is 8, you get $170 in action that is worth $3.40 in FSP but lose $1 in 35 out of 36 rolls. Even if the series ends on the Come out roll, it is $60 of action worth $1.20 in FSP, which is still greater then the $1 boxcar insurance bet.

    Unfortunately this place enforces one machine per player which is why I only ran $7,500 coin in. I played two sessions shooting 6,7,8 and lost $16 in the first session but won $20 in the second session. I already had $100 FSP from my mailer so the $150 extra FSP was a nice bonus.

    Happiness is working hard to learn dice control at Aruze Craps and spending time hunting down good promo's to put my dice control skills to good use. I love playing with a huge margin of safety in a casino.
     
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  2. von duck, Dec 24, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Dice control? You would have to be joking. Two dice, bouncing simultaneously , changing angles every microsecond, a delay on the button, an unknown launch velocity, and an unknown invisible force acting on the dice. This statement, does not fit, with the other valid things that you say, and in my opinion brings either your sanity, or your intellectual prowess, into serious doubt. Your post and a few others lead me to believe that "DI" is actually a mental illness, something like an excessive/ compulsive disorder. Dice influence on the Aruze bubble, definitely, but it's not by the guy pushing the button, this I can absolutely guarantee you. :cool:
     
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  3. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    The only thing the shooter has control of in Aruze Craps is WHEN TO PUSH THE BUTTON.

    If you haven't figure this part out, then you are the one who has mental illness.

    In statistics, the term we use is "Rho" to help denote autocorrelation. Find the "Rho" and that will tell the shooter when to press the button. With "Rho", you don't need visual ballistics.

    Btw, I am 35 for 45 in shooting (6,7,8). Rho is my friend and helps me make $$$$. The $$$$ proves I'm not the one with "mental illness".
     
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  4. von duck, Jan 3, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    OK, let's take up your points, one at a time.
    1 "The only control you have is "when" to push the button". Anybody, has figured this out, even TDV, I think. Your making the statement as if it is some kind of revelation. OK, so elaborate on this statement. When DO you push the button? What is your indicator, that enlightens you, that the time to push the button is right now?
    2."if you find the Rho, it will tell you when to push the button". So what exactly is Rho, or is this a concept, that only a "statistical genius" would be able to grasp?
    3. You are 35 for 45 shooting (6,7,8). I'm not sure what exactly this statement means. These three numbers represent about 44% of all possible outcomes. In this example you have hit about 78%. This represents an anomaly, though a pretty short test example. Also missing, is the proportion that each number showed. Another peace of missing information, is an explanation, of how you bet, to take advantage of this anomaly.
    4. "Rho is your friend, and helps you make money". It might be helpful to know, how much money. It would also be helpful to know what Rho is. The only thing proven in your post, is that you will make vague statements, and claim them as "proof".
    In previous post you have indicated that 6 and 8, are the numbers that you can't make money with. You have also indicated, that rounding the "breakages" down instead of up, would eliminate your profit, so your profit could not be much. Using your 45 rolls as an example, the breakage difference would amount to no more than 45 cents. My question would be, how long did it take you to "pull down" the 45 cents, and, what are you going to spend it on. :)
     
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    Last edited: Jan 3, 2018
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  5. basicstrategy777, Jan 3, 2018

    basicstrategy777

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    Breakage.......give me a friggin break.

    Math comes up with correct answers but , frequently, not correct solutions. Following math can lead you down a wrong path. What good are answers if they don't fix stuff. "Yes Mrs Brown, the operation was a success but your husband died."

    It's kinda like saying DI is theoretically possible ; for sure it can be done. And you have someone that can do it rolling the dice.....and he loses money. The guy next to him is making money. Both are betting Do.......why is this? What this tells me is there is something else in the equation that makes the difference. And that something else is something you can control much, much better than DI. The focus should be on this something else because it is manageable and doable.

    IMHO, learning when to bet...how to bet.....how much to bet.....when to walk.....intuition.....experience......is much more valuable than being a DI .

    Having a great nose will serve you much better than being able to influence the dice and being a tremendous mathematician.

    777
     
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  6. The Comeback Kid, Jan 3, 2018

    The Comeback Kid

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    The nose analogy is good, but I feel it's too close to the head. We are too much in our heads & not enough into our feelings. Get out of the head & into the gut or solar plexus area; a ganglia of nerves that is the network center of emotion. It will tell you all you need to know. We've been trained out of this important internal guidance center. Dice influence is life influence. We are always influencing our experience in what happens, both wanted & unwanted.

    Remember the classic movie Double Indemnity? E.G. Robinson's character talked about this feeling in his gut. He could feel something wasn't right. He called it his "little man".

    Next time you get the double wammy of not getting what you want & losing what you have; chk your gut. That churning inside can move mountains. Learn to respect it.
     
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  7. TDVegas, Jan 3, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    The gut feel. Intuition....

    This will work...sometimes.

    Sometimes it will not.

    The difference on the plus side will not be enough to drop everything and concentrate on making craps a career....there will be "plus times" and there will be "minus times" for the gut.

    If it could be "bottled".....we would. For ourselves.

    It's a great feeling when intuition works and I'm sure people feel good about that decision. My "gut" tells me when it fails...that person kindly puts it out of his mind and waits for next time.

    If you've truly got this sixth sense...not sure what you are doing here. I would be looking at green felt as much as humanly possible.

    TR31 Is likely looking for "up" numbers or "up" sets (facing up) when he pushes the button...hoping that the confined size of the bubble and the large dice limit the "ability" of the down face numbers to appear when the dice finally rest. You would have to do some calculations, collating, etc.

    I've got 5+ years on the bubble, thousands upon thousands of results.....
    My answer to this "phenomenon" in bubble craps is.....
     
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  8. Mssthis1, Jan 3, 2018

    Mssthis1

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    My answer is it's the same as on a live table when you set with the 4's on top and the result is a 6/2 both die off axis 8. I meant to do that. :oops:
     
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  9. basicstrategy777, Jan 3, 2018

    basicstrategy777

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    It seems like in sports, especially in baseball, managers are deep into math and statistics. It "tells' them what to do in particular situations.

    Old school managers, if there are any left, go by their gut instincts.

    It would be interesting to know which way does best.

    My gut tells me the tighter the ballgame, the higher the stakes, the more I would rely on my gut to guide me. Statistics and rules are like a stop sign at an intersection in the desert.....yeah, yeah the statistics, the rules tell you what to do and you won't be wrong if you obey, but its 2 o'clock in the morning, you can see for miles in all directions and you see no headlites,...........your gut tell you screw it and you don't hit the binders to slow down from 180.

    Some of these close football games could have used a minestrone of gut calls combined with some balls and courage. It's just so, so satisfying to be able to kick the math geek/coach in the nuts, have his clip board go flying, and win the game because you had the courage of your convictions.

    Old school verse math.....I guess this can apply to many areas in life.

    777
     
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  10. tabletop123, Jan 3, 2018

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    BS777....you nailed it buddy! The how much, & when you bet trumps everything.
     
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  11. TDVegas, Jan 3, 2018

    TDVegas

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    Moneyball...a lot of teams utilize it. Takes "gut feeling" and throws it away. They even made a movie about it;)

    I'm inclined not to be so rigid...but still am unsure of its relevance.
     
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  12. basicstrategy777, Jan 3, 2018

    basicstrategy777

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    There is no question math has its place.......but at the exclusion of all else, I believe is a mistake.

    Some things you just cannot explain, yet you see it every day.

    People need to keep an open mind.

    777
     
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  13. Onautopilot, Jan 3, 2018

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    I believe most of the managers / coaches do use their instincts on occasion, I see it used more than one might think. But the statistics, and past data, play the bigger role most of the time for the pros.

    If it worked or didn't work in past situations to a percentage that gave you confidence in that decision....most of the time you go with it.
     
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  14. Onautopilot, Jan 3, 2018

    Onautopilot

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    No doubt that a "gut" feeling has validity, why, is the unanswered question for most........but then we don't really need a why if you trust it, do we? :)
     
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  15. basicstrategy777, Jan 3, 2018

    basicstrategy777

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    OAP.....my guess is you play a strong game of craps.......my other guess is you make gut shots more than you would like to admit. I could be wrong....but I'm not usually wrong.

    777
     
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  16. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    Why don't you throw 35 (6,7,8) in 45 tries and post photos to see how difficult it is to do this feat. I don't recall anyone else doing this if what I am doing is so "easy".

    Von Duck's comments are silly. There is 15 seconds to shoot (some machines are set to 10 seconds and others set to 20 seconds). I pressed the button 45 times and got 35 (6,7,8). So I was doing something right for 35 rolls.

    To make the claim I did 35 out of 45 rolls "due to gut" is a bit of a stretch.

    I have written extensive about how to beat Aruze Bubble Craps. I have shared this info for free -- I have never charged for this info because I believe in sharing info on a public forum. I made a lot of money from this game and want other people to make money as well.

    If you research my posts, I made it clear you have got to find the machine in the "right mode" and I gave extensive clues based on my experience.

    What I am doing isn't hard -- just work backwards. I am doing something that gets me 35 (6,7,8) in 45 rolls meaning I know "WHEN TO PRESS THE BUTTON" despite dice rotation, delays, etc. The knowledge of when to press trumps the dice rotation speed, delay, etc.

    I will put up more photos showing more successful rolls and you will nonetheless probably still believe it was still due to my gut.

    I will end with this comment: This is America, the land of opportunity. All I can do is to show photos aka evidence that people are making money from Aruze Craps due to non-random rolls. It is up to you to figure out "WHEN TO PRESS THE BUTTON" during those 15 seconds (or 10 or 20 seconds). Sadly, most people won't figure it out. It doesn't matter if you have 5 years of experience. All it matters is if you can figure out how to exploit a weakness in Aruze Craps as the shooter. I've taught people with ZERO years of experience so experience is the dumbest argument to make.
     
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  17. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    And I meant to get 35 (6,7,8) in 45 rolls.

    And look at all those red 7's -- we all know a 7 happens in 1 in 6 rolls. I am rolling 4 red 7's in 15 rolls. And I meant to do that too.
     
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  18. Onautopilot, Jan 3, 2018

    Onautopilot

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    Certainly I make gut shots, always have, and probably always will.....mostly on bet amounts, not the bet its self. In other words...."Press it", "Let it ride", etc. when I get that "feeling".

    The only thing I have ever said, is that I do not believe, or think, I have increased my bottom line by doing that....maybe, but I don't keep score on those individual bets.

    I don't think any gambler could say they never listen to the "little man" once in a while.....just not the nature of a gambler. :)
     
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  19. Settingcanthurt, Jan 3, 2018

    Settingcanthurt

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    If ya blow on em you can control em...
     
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  20. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    Do you know why TD keeps making dumb comments.

    1. For someone who claims to have 5 years of bubble, he missed the most obvious detail: Aruze moved to a 3 second window so it can have more time to randomize the rolls before the shooter can press the button.

    2. I moved to the (6,7,8) shot approach AFTER the 3 second change. If TD had sufficient IQ, he should realize the 3 second change did not affect my approach to non-random rolls, but WHAT NUMBERS I AM NOW TARGETING FOR NON-RANDOM ROLLS.

    Before the 3 second rule, I TARGETED (4,5,6) with the occasional NUCLEAR OPTION of Red 7's. Now, I TARGET (6,7,8) AFTER THE 3 second rule (this includes the NUCLEAR OPTION)

    Therefore, TD's logic of me targeting "up" sets ARGUMENT is bovine manure.

    FOR THE RECORD - I said I was looking for a set, I never said it was an "up" set. TD is ABSOLUTELY CLUELESS as to how I shoot.

    3. In America, we have a saying: PUT UP OR SHUT UP.

    Given TD's vast 5 years of bubble experience, he should have no problem putting up a photo of 15 numbers were:

    1) 12 or more of those numbers are 6,7,8 AND
    2) 4 or more RED 7's as part of the 12+ numbers.

    I did it twice. Surely, TD could do it twice as well.

    I didn't put up any 12 numbers, I made sure it had at least 4 RED 7's to confirm the Nuclear option -- that min 4 red 7's is my signature. There is a reason why I put 4 red 7's in the photo because low IQ people won't pick it up.

    -TR31

    PS anytime someone says what I am doing is easy, I just say: Okay, let's see you do it.
     
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