How much is your real bankrolls?

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by Taymac25, Feb 22, 2015.

  1. Onautopilot, Feb 22, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    I don't find anything wrong with betting on "hunches", in fact, I think that's what it's all about. We sure can't bet on sure things at the craps table. Trying to be in sync. with the numbers, is the hope of all players, and it's most always a "guess". :)
     
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  2. Onautopilot, Feb 22, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    When you get ahead, I think you should step back, take a deep breath, count the money, then decide what the best way to use that money is. I call it the utility, or value of my money, at the time sort of thing. Ask yourself, what is the best way to spend this winnings....buy something, save it for next trip, do something for someone else with it, or would I rather keep playing a while longer? The honest answer should be your "stop" guide. Just a thought
     
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  3. Onautopilot, Feb 22, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    That depends on how serious you are about winning the $1,000, and how much disposable money you have available to accomplish that goal. With a $1,000, you have less than a 50/50 chance, as you increase the bankroll, your chances increase, but the risk of going broke never diminishes to zero. Some people like the idea of a large bankroll, small win goal, better odds of accomplishing that goal. Others like the small bankroll, big win goal approach, a long shot, but smaller dollars at risk. In relation to each other, both goals carry similar long term results. One gets you a lot of small wins, with the rare huge loss, the other one gets you a lot of small losses, with the rare huge win. Ya bets your quarter, and ya takes your chances! :)
     
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  4. goatcabin, Feb 22, 2015

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    That's only true of you intend to invest the whole bankroll. Also, the degree of variance is an even more important factor.
     
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  5. Onautopilot, Feb 22, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I think discipline when it comes to gambling, is more in knowing what motivates you when you gamble. I personally, have a couple different motivations at play when I'm in a casino, and they are hard to separate sometimes. One, is the rational side...I came to enjoy a few hours of conservative gambling, with the hope of winning a little, and being satisfied with that. The other motivation, is the "adrenalin rush" of a large win, the action, staying in the game! As long as I can keep those separate, I have no problem, but sometimes I find myself changing horses in the middle of the stream. I am getting a lot better over the years. I start out by deciding which type session I want, if it's enjoyment, and a small or modest win, if that happens, I found out by stepping away from the game, even walking outside, that lets me stay in the rational state of mind, and I leave satisfied most of the time. If it's an adrenalin rush thing, I take only the amount of money I expect to lose, if I get ahead, that is "ammunition" for the go for it mindset. If I happen to get insanely lucky, it's a wild trip home, if I don't, I just say, "You took a shot, and that's what you came for, no big deal.", and I drive home in a better frame of mind. Hard to do? Yes, I have a lot of "gambler" in me, but if you plan on enjoying trips to the casino, this is something to really consider....trust me on this one. :)
     
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  6. MustangSally, Feb 22, 2015

    MustangSally

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    Both are required factors I do say

    an example comes to mind

    $1000 start bankroll
    win goal = $100 or 10% (make that every day right? hehe)
    if the bets were paid fair, success would be 1000/1100 or abouts
    90.91% (keep this in mind)

    $5 flat bets
    chance of success (using the Gambler's Ruin formula - all gamblers are liars but not all liars are gamblers - I gets for success
    56.7106822%
    and lots of bets required too
    average number of those = 5,320.29530 (copy/paste boys and girls)

    more variance needed!

    $10 flat bets
    74.2149768%
    1,298.56359 bets

    looking better

    $25 bets
    84.9740277%
    184.66525 bets

    now look who is talking
    variance to the rescue, I says

    $100 bets
    89.5698400%
    10.41746


    can we do even better?
    How about bold play, bet what it takes to hit the win target
    start with $100 flat bet and no odds
    I get in Excel
    90.41069%

    and a faster test using R
    and also the don't pass
    > pdoub = function(br,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob=1) {
    + if (br < 1 | prob < thresh) return(0)
    + bet = ceiling((goal-br)/odds) # bet needed to reach goal
    + limit = min(br,max_bet) # limit = max bet possible
    + if ( bet < limit )
    + pwin + (1-pwin)*pdoubb(br-bet,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob*(1-pwin))
    + else
    + pwin*pdoubb(br+odds*limit,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob*pwin) + (1-pwin)*pdoubb(br-limit,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob*(1-pwin))
    + }
    > require(compiler)
    > pdoubb = cmpfun(pdoub)
    >
    > p <- pdoubb(1000,1100,2000,949/1925,1,0.000000001)
    > p
    [1] 0.9041483 <<< don't pass
    > p <- pdoubb(1000,1100,2000,244/495,1,0.000000001)
    > p
    [1] 0.9041069<<< pass
    >
    only a few bets required with this method on average

    I am certain adding in odds could do even better but that part of my code is not all finished, yet

    point again
    bankroll and variance go together in hitting win goal targets

    no craps layout was damaged doing these calculations

    have fun playing craps
    Sally
     
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  7. The Midnight Skulker, Feb 22, 2015

    The Midnight Skulker

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    IMHO your absolutely highest priority has to be to lose this attitude! If you do not then there is no point in asking for advice on money management; you will leave behind whatever you brought, so you must bring only what you can afford to leave behind.

    You might be interested in a thread on the rec.gambling.craps newsgroup with the subject "Most Craps Palyers looser all the time". (Note the misspellings for that is the actual subject.) In particular I direct your attention to my post of 1/18/05 and the discussion related to it. BTW if you read the thread in its entirety you will see some of the same names there that you see here...and that back then we were all just one happy family, agreeing with each other over a few drinks, same as here. (NOT!)
     
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  8. Morgue, Feb 22, 2015

    Morgue

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    Don't bring more money than you intend to lose to a casino. If you bring what you intend to play with and then find yourself at an ATM, feel ashamed...feel very ashamed.

    To answer the thread title question, my usual bankroll is $500. If it evaporates, I head off. My goal is to play for 5+hrs, winning a couple hundred would be handy too. I constantly reevaluate my stop limits while at the table depending on how long I've played and what my current bankroll is.

    Playing regularly for about 9 months I am up $1050 (at time of print ;) ) that is my OVERALL craps bankroll. If (ok...when) it evaporates, I'll reassess my session bankroll.

    For my style of play $250 would not be enough, there have been MANY times I've dipped below that and managed to claw my way back to even, close to it or even a small profit. My overall win/loss would look a lot different if my bankroll was halved.

    I've lost the full $500 before and it hurt like a MF... Would I have felt better if I brought $1000, lost half and coloured up $500 and left? No. I'm not stupid, I've lost the same amount in both scenarios, I can't fool myself that easily.
     
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  9. basicstrategy777, Feb 23, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    I think what I said is on the mark. I am surprized you disagreed with it.

    If I bring a lot of money and my win goal is low, variance won't matter.It might just take a little longer to hit my goal. My good variance will come DUE. It slices both ways. My money will outlast variance.

    777
     
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  10. goatcabin, Feb 23, 2015

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    I was just pointing out that you cannot calculate your chances on the basis of a certain bankroll if you intend to stop after losing half of it, as some have advised.

    "a little longer?" See Sally's post above. As the size of the bets increases, the probability increases and the average number of bets decreases. Variance is the key.
     
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  11. Taymac25, Feb 23, 2015

    Taymac25

    Taymac25 Member

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    What attitude are you talking about? Lol
     
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  12. Grizzoola, Feb 23, 2015

    Grizzoola

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    Sally, Alan: Help me clear my mind. When you use "variance" in the above posts, do you mean "volatility," as in "bet more, win/lose more; bet less, win/lose less?"
     
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  13. goatcabin, Feb 23, 2015

    goatcabin

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    I use the term variance in a general way, not the technical term that means "average of the squared differences from the mean". The standard deviation is the square root of the variance.

    So, yes, variance and volatility are more-or-less interchangeable words.
     
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  14. MustangSally, Feb 23, 2015

    MustangSally

    MustangSally Member

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    in the example i used, i meant it as increasing the bankroll moves by simply increasing the bet

    it it like using the word
    bomb
    or
    bad

    what do they mean? you have to take them in context

    also the example I used only had $1000 bankroll
    so by you saying bet more win/lose more is not quite correct
    I can only lose $1000, no more

    Sally
     
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  15. Grizzoola, Feb 23, 2015

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    You explained this in an earlier thread, and thanks for the refresher. "Volatility," to me, describes these discussions better, avoiding my confusion w/ the technical "variance." Thanks, again.
     
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  16. Grizzoola, Feb 23, 2015

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

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    What I meant was size of the swings between wins & losses during a session, whether the session ends w/ a win or a loss. To me, this is a measure of volatility, rather than variance. Alan has cleared this up for me, saying both terms are interchangeable, except when using variance in its technical sense.
     
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  17. The Midnight Skulker, Feb 23, 2015

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I have highlighted my answer below.
    It's tough to be a winner when you always leave the casino without "some money", and if you are loathe to leave with some money increasing your starting bankroll will only increase the money you are not leaving with.
     
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  18. Taymac25, Feb 24, 2015

    Taymac25

    Taymac25 Member

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    Ok I can see how that could of been taken that way I'll watch how I post in the future
     
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  19. Taymac25, Jun 28, 2015

    Taymac25

    Taymac25 Member

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    Omg that's the same way I play but I do it every time. I love the rush I used to be a dilaudid addict which to those that don't know is a fast acting opiate (pain killer). You might think I shouldn't be gambling but to those of you who think that I say give me something I'm not stealing or selling any of my stuff to gamble I work hard for my money. And I am not rich at all, I work pt for UPS. I love craps it's the most fun I've had since I did drugs. But I have learned that if I want to call myself a serious gambler I've got to develop some new habit and most of all some discipline. Like leaving with money (Grinds teeth) that's hard for me. Don't know why tho I guess it's cuz I want to use every last bit to try and win big and when I get down to my last $10 I bet only hi lo. Before that I would play 6 on the 6,8 and 5 pass with 2x odds starting out and every win i press never regress. The ammunition is the perfect word because I feel like I'm on the attack. The one thing I don't like is being watched by the boxman And pit bosses. I get very anxious and I feel like it affects my game. So what I'm asking for hear is not tips I've heard a lot of those lately and i need to sit on these for awhile. I'm a slow learner. What I Want is reasons to bet less aggressively or reasons to come home with money or go for the small win and be happy with it.
     
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  20. Onautopilot, Jun 28, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    You will have to supply the "reason" for what decisions you make at the craps tables. If you are addicted to gambling, that is a very difficult position to make rational decisions from. You are the only one that knows that, so I will assume for now that you just enjoy the action, and have the capacity to make a rational choice.

    It is all about "utility", how much value you place on your money at any given time! You look at what ever chips you have in your rack, and decide what that money means to you...right there, right now. If you would like to take that amount home with you, and spend, or save it for something you value more than additional time and excitement at the table....leave, and come back another day. I suggest if you have a hard time doing that, then take a break, cash your chips in, walk around, count the money in your pocket, think about it....then make the decision to stop, or play some more.

    It also depends on how many times you visit the casino, leaving is hard to do if you don't get to a casino often, and get ahead quickly....you just hate to leave before satisfying your playing time for that trip. Mostly, this is something you need to figure out for yourself, you are the only one that knows your mind set while gambling. But believe me, you need to figure out what is right, and comfortable for your craps playing experience, it is no fun always saying, "Why didn't I leave!".....learn to leave when it's the right time to do that!
     
    #40