# Heding the don't come point with a place bet.

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by dpdiver2004, Dec 30, 2009.

1. dpdiver2004, Dec 30, 2009

### dpdiver2004 Member

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The average number of rolls per shooter is about 6 rolls. We all know that it is pretty uncommon for seven to come up on the roll following the establishment of the point...So I have a decent hedge strategy of making a don't come bet immediately after the point is established (the following roll), then once I establish my don't come point, make a place bet on the same number. Once the point is established you are guarenteed to break even or gain if the point is hit before seven. What do you think? If you are comforatble that 7 won't hit here, that don't come bet is in your favor as 2 and 3 will hit more times than 11 (with 12 a push).

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2. rj.laroza, Jan 15, 2010

### rj.laroza Member

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this strategy is called the D.C. Hedge. i was reading about it last night in get the edge in craps book. the primary use of this strategy is to bet on random rollers. the only chance of really losing would be on the come out for the dont come bet if a 7 or 11 comes. in the book it talks about using the strategy on other shooters while you wait for the dice to come back to you so that the dealers don't bother you about taking up table space and milking comps.

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3. goatcabin, Feb 8, 2010

### goatcabin Member

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Average number of rolls for a shooter is 8.52; average number of rolls for a decision (pass or come) is 3.375.
On the roll following the establishment of a point, the seven will show, on average, one time out of six.
A DC bet on the roll after the pass point is established is expected to lose on the next roll 22.2% of the time, just like any DP or DC bet. I don't understand why you say it's "uncommon" for the seven to show right after the comeout establishes a point. "Point-seven" is a pretty common term, for a good reason! >

As to the hedge, once you have a point established on the DC, the odds are in your favor, because the seven is more likely than the point numbers. Yes, the place bet protects you in case the point is repeated, but it also takes away your winnings if the seven comes first.

When evaluating any hedging strategy, keep two things in mind:
1) each bet carries its own house advantage, so you are "paying twice"
2) offsetting bets have the effect of reducing "variance", that is, you will tend to lose less, but also win less

You can reduce variance to its minimum by making minimum bets on the pass line. This will tend to keep you at the table, but it's not very exciting, either.
Good luck,
Alan Shank

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