Hedge Hog System / Away to Avoid the Comeout Roll?

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by flbtigger, Sep 4, 2010.

  1. flbtigger, Sep 4, 2010

    flbtigger

    flbtigger Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2010
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hello Everyone,

    We recently in Pennsylvania in the past few months have gotten table games and I have developed an interest in craps. Unlike the other table games, I feel this game to be more relaxing pace and more interesting than the other table games.

    After losing a few hundred during my first few times, I have order books and been searching for methods and strategies in order to minimize my losses, enjoy more times at the table, and hopefully walk away with more than i started at the beginning of the session.

    The one strategy I was looking to try involves placing $10 on the dont pass line(at a $5 min table), waiting for the point to be establish, then two $6 place bets on the 6 and 8. Pocket the first place bet win and continue to make additional place bets to fill up the numbers every time a place bet wins, hoping the shooter will continue hitting everything but his/her point and a 7 and reap the profits off it.

    My question is it possible to bet against the point after the come out roll has been made instead of placing the $10 on the dont pass line? The reason I ask is to avoid the loss of the $10 if a 7 or 11 is made on the come out roll and minimize my losses

    Thank You For Your Help
     
    #1
  2. zerophonik, Sep 4, 2010

    zerophonik

    zerophonik Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2010
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Yes, you can lay against the point.

    For the 4 & 10
    - $20 + vig will pay $10

    For the 5 & 9
    - $15 + vig will pay $10

    For the 6 & 8
    - $12 + vig will pay $10
     
    #2
  3. flbtigger, Sep 4, 2010

    flbtigger

    flbtigger Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2010
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    0
    Thanks!

    However, It seems that laying the establish point after the come out roll will increase my losses if a bad streak continues based on the point:

    Example #1 - Worst Case (if laying instead of dont pass)
    Shooter comes out and rolls a 4
    Lay the 4 for $20 and two place bets, the 6 and the 8, at $6 each
    Shooter makes the point without hitting any of the place bets (Loss the Lay Bet)
    Shooter comes out and rolls a 9
    Shooter then Sevens Out

    Net Loss: -$32 if laying 4/10 ** -$27 if laying 5/9 ** -$22 if laying 6/8 **

    Example #1 - Worst Case (No Laying - Just Dont Pass)
    Place $10 on the dont pass line
    Shooter comes out and rolls a 4
    Place the 6 and the 8, at $6 each
    Shooter makes the point without hitting any of the place bets (Loss the Dont Pass Bet)
    Shooter comes out and rolls a 9
    Shooter then Sevens Out

    Net Loss: -$22


    My question: Which is the better strategy in the long run to minimize loss? #1 Skip the Dont Pass Line and Lay the Points or #2 Play the Dont Pass a hope to overcome the Roll Out ?
     
    #3
  4. basicstrategy777, Sep 4, 2010

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    8,927
    Likes Received:
    7,953
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    The lowest vig to hedge the DP line is to play the doey-don't.

    If you have a DC bet already up on the come out you already have the DP line line bet hedged and can avoid betting the PL bet and, hence, make a straight DP line bet.

    If you are a 'right' player the idea of betting the DP and placing the 6 and 8 is a good holding strategy, until you see the table turn.
    I would take one or two hits onthe place bets and than take them down and then wait for the 7. Don't be greedy and remember, this is a holding strategy not a make alot of money strategy. Once you commit to sending it in, than you can load up the table.

    777
     
    #4
  5. dustedone, Sep 4, 2010

    dustedone

    dustedone Member

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2010
    Messages:
    398
    Likes Received:
    79
    Location:
    Las Vegas, NV
    The one thing most players don't really know about playing from the darkside(The don"t pass line) is that you don't have to take action on the point once it has been established.

    I have played the darkside for years and only taking action on the DON'T when the point established is a 4 or 10. If any other point is established I simply call out "no action on the don't pass" and remove my starting bet. I then would return to the pass line bet depending upon what the point had been established.(most likely a 5,6 or 8) I always here casino teachers( I'm using this term loosely, cause the employee has the best interest in the casino to bring in new players to the games) say that you should dedicate to either the pass or don't pass; and the casino promotes the pass line heavily and when it comes time the explain the don't pass line, the host just says,"it the oppisite of the pass line."

    The thing to remember is that you CAN NOT add to the don't pass line(except your free odds) and you CAN NOT take away from the pass line. So flip flop that and you take down the don't pass and place a pass line bet after the point has been established.

    *I have gotten into a arguement or two with dealers on this fact when I am the shooter. And the simply resolve was to bring in the pit boss. It is tough work breaking in new craps dealers I tell you.
     
    #5
  6. basicstrategy777, Sep 4, 2010

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    8,927
    Likes Received:
    7,953
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    If I was standing next to you I would ask if I could give you the amount of your DP 5,6,8, or nine and I assume the DP bet i.e. it is now my bet, my money.

    I am not knocking your strategy but you are relinquishing a strong position by taking down your DP bet after it made it thru the comeout roll.

    777
     
    #6
  7. dustedone, Sep 4, 2010

    dustedone

    dustedone Member

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2010
    Messages:
    398
    Likes Received:
    79
    Location:
    Las Vegas, NV
    In the past some say the point 5 is as hard as a 4 to win, then so the same could be said of the nine; Yet the odds don't truly show that correct? I would also say that the casino does frown upon buying ones active bet(s), even if it is on the sly. I would not need myself or yourself to be barred from any casino, mostly a casino with a long arm to reach to say ban us from playing in MS, IA, CN or anywhere in the US. And as that matters possibly the world?

    Here is the senerio, I play the darkside comeout with a $30 PLACE bets working on both the SIX and the EIGHT working on the comeout(no one get paid without a hard days WORK). And $40 on the DON'T PASS Line. *optional bet $4 2-way hop on the FIVE(which I now play pretty much all the time now) or a $20 PLACE bet on the FIVE.

    With a 4 or 10 as the established point, I would take full odds on the point and continue my play.

    The 9 would be a call of no action and I would remove the DP bet.(this is where as the shooter the dealer would get in my face and say that I have to keep the bet if I wanted to continue to shoot, he is WRONG.)

    The point of 5 I am on the fence though, I can play it either way. On the DP point 5 with just double odds with the 6 and 8 still active a $40 DON'T COME bet and $10 PLACE on the NINE w/ $10 FIELD and $10 HORN HIGH YO. The table is hedged agaist the SEVEN and everything else is covered but the FIVE. And again I would only take action on a 4 or 10 DON'T COME point, all others would be NO ACTION and continue w/ the above bets.

    THe point of 6 or 8 is easy I would call NO ACTION and play the point from the PASS LINE. As would if I choose to play the point of 5.
     
    #7
  8. Sancho Panza, Sep 6, 2010

    Sancho Panza

    Sancho Panza Member

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2010
    Messages:
    430
    Likes Received:
    18
    Having also played the don't side for many years, I would ask whether anyone has experienced or seen heat applied in the case of taking over someone else's bets?
     
    #8
  9. The Midnight Skulker, Sep 8, 2010

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    3,906
    Likes Received:
    3,976
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    Don't Pass carries a house advantage of 1.40%; lay bets carry a nominal house advantage of 2.44%-4.00% if the vig is payed up front, or a nominal house advantage of 1.67%-2.27% if the vig is collected on wins only (from http://wizardofodds.com/craps). I say "nominal" because these percentages can be decreased by betting amounts that will win just under the amount on which the house will charge another dollar. For example, a lay bet of $78 (to win $39) on the 4 or 10 has a house edge of 1.27% providing the house ups the vig only on $20 increments. As a rule of thumb, however, lay bets have a higher HA than Don't Pass bets, which argues for your strategy #2.
     
    #9
  10. goatcabin, Sep 17, 2010

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2010
    Messages:
    863
    Likes Received:
    112
    Of course the five/nine are "easier" to win than the four/ten. If the casino "frowns" on someone taking over your DP bet, it's because they loooooooooooooooove to see players throw away an advantage. Your DP flat bet on 5/9 has a 60% chance to win, which means a 20% player advantage. On the 6/8, you have a 9.09% advantage. From the casino's viewpoint, what's not to like about your taking those bets down? By pulling your flat bet on 5,6,8,9, you are increasing the house edge to over 17%! Keep in mind that the DP has a 45.45% disadvantage on the comeout roll, and that only 25% of the points established are going to be 4 or 10.

    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #10
  11. Andrew, Nov 9, 2010

    Andrew

    Andrew Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2010
    Messages:
    5
    Likes Received:
    1
    If you want to see 4's and 10's come up just Lay againest them.
    I did and they came up like daisies in the Spring.<wink>

    Andrew
     
    #11
  12. goatcabin, Nov 12, 2010

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2010
    Messages:
    863
    Likes Received:
    112
    As always, ASK the dealer where the round-up point is so you can get the best deal for yourself. Also, keep in mind that the advantage of the casino collecting the vig only on wins is much greater on buy bets, because buy bets win less often than they lose, and lay bets win more often than they lose.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #12