Hardway Bet Strategy Simulator

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by OGplug, May 18, 2017.

  1. OGplug, May 18, 2017

    OGplug

    OGplug Member

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    I think I have a good Hardway bet strategy. Ive been charting rolls on live tables for the last couple days as I am from California and don't like craps with the cards (don't trust casinos). I have been researching simulators but have not been able to locate one that I can use or better understand. the closest one ive come across Is the winscrap simulator. Is anyone familiar with it and able to chime in on how to use or any other simulator. just wanna see how many times it busts on a 50,000 roll scenario. Thanks
     
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  2. KokomoJoe4, May 18, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    What is your strategy?

    I think that a good way to play a method using the HW's is to use a conservative increase, say $1, on each losing bet.

    Say you decide to start each bet at $10. 7-out will force you put each out on $11, whereas an easy way loser will require only the replacement of that number, adding a buck to your bet.

    For winners paying 9:1 or 7:1, a winner will off-set a fair number of losses, but you know how things can go at the craps table. These bets paying 7 and 9 to 1 actually should pay 10 and 8 to 1, so you are getting shorted pretty severely every time you see a winner.
     
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  3. OGplug, May 18, 2017

    OGplug

    OGplug Member

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    Yes its roughly similar to that strategy. Table limit is 2000 each hardway so im mainly concerned with how many times does a hardway lose. Easy way and 7. So far from me running live tables i havent seen it lose past 16 times.in a row Which would roughly put you around 30-40 dollars around the hardways depending on where you started.
     
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  4. OGplug, May 18, 2017

    OGplug

    OGplug Member

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    I dont have a set strategy yet as im still trying to gather all the data to make an educated one. Thats why i wanna run it thru a simulator to see how many times it goes over 15x i find live casino play to be a more accurate representation than computer generated. I would then take this data to see how much you make over an hour. Or a session of play. Find out how many sessions you need to cover a bust. See if you can make your cover 3-5x your bust amount. Then execute with real money.
     
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  5. Onautopilot, May 18, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    A simulation is just going to show that you will probably end up a loser after some extended play, with that high of an EV, and a negative progression.

    That does not mean you can't "dance" between the rain drops without getting wet for some sessions.

    Using a negative progression has one advantage....you are likely to get ahead at the start, and probably stay ahead for some given amount of sessions.

    But that has a flip side.....if you quit playing for good after some winning sessions, great, but there is an old saying that BTL's coined. "It's all one long session, then you die.". :)

    You can get lucky though, and maybe stay ahead, but with the high EV bets, you have to get very lucky to do that over any extended time.

    I don't mean to discourage you, but I wouldn't count on making bank with any betting scheme over the long haul.
     
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  6. OGplug, May 18, 2017

    OGplug

    OGplug Member

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    Thanks for your reply. I am definitely aware that betting strategies are mathematically flawed under the payouts the casino has set up around the table. I am also aware that this will bust and you wont win every time. I personally just see hardways hit all too often to not have a set strategy around it.
     
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  7. Onautopilot, May 18, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    With your mindset, no problem. You know the parameters of the bet before devising some plan, and that's all that matters.

    And if your observations tell you something about how you want to risk your money, again, no problem.

    I think all of us try and come up with something that we think will give us a decent chance at walking away a winner...at least on some % of tries.

    Good luck with it, and let us know what you experience!
     
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  8. DeMango, May 18, 2017

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    More fun would be to hop 'em! All 6 of them, a buck @ Odds are one in 6, same as a 7!
    Or just the traditional ones, a buck each. Odds are one in 9! Have fun!
     
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  9. Steen

    Steen Member

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    Someone contacted me recently about a Hardway strategy. It sounds like it was you.

    Your strategy was not very clear but I sent you some code just to get started. As I understood it, you wanted to increase one unit on all Hardways whenever an easyway rolled and three units on all Hardways whenever a 7 rolled, and you wanted to bump up to the next level after 8 consecutive losses. Now that I look at it again, that code needs to be tweaked a bit more. Try this:

    Code:
    If initializing script Then
       cs1.bet.amount = 1 :
       cs2.consec.losses = 0 :
       autohandle winning bets = "take bet and winnings" :
       autohandle losing bets = "no bet"
    EndIf
    
    If any(hardway bets lose) Then
       add 1 to cs2.consec.losses
    
       If dice total = 7 Then
          If cs2.consec.losses < 8 Then
             add 3 to cs1.bet.amount
          ElseIf cs2.consec.losses < 16 Then
             add 6 to cs1.bet.amount
          Else
             add 12 to cs1.bet.amount
          EndIf
       Else
          If cs2.consec.losses < 8 Then
             add 1 to cs1.bet.amount
          ElseIf cs2.consec.losses < 16 Then
             add 2 to cs1.bet.amount
          Else
             add 3 to cs1.bet.amount
          EndIf
       EndIf
    
       bet cs1.bet.amount on all(hardway bets)
    
    ElseIf any(hardway bets win) Or hard4 = 0 Then
       cs2.consec.losses = 0 :
       cs1.bet.amount = 1 :
       bet cs1.bet.amount on all(hardway bets)
    EndIf
    Just copy and paste this code onto the auto-bet screen in WinCraps.

    Steen
     
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  10. DeMango, May 21, 2017

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Let me say thanks Steen, and just as I mentioned on WoV, a dummies book would be appreciated!
     
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  11. von duck, May 22, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Half the numbers one might throw, will beat at least 1 of the hard ways. These bets have "prohibitive" odds, so you would be better off looking elsewhere for a play. Keep working. Don't let "Big Stick" hear you say that thing about "not trusting casinos", he thinks you SHOULD.
     
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  12. Steen

    Steen Member

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    My pleasure. Here's a variation that increases 1 unit each time an easyway is rolled but only on the corresponding hardway that lost, and 4 units on each hardway after a 7 is rolled. Increases ramp up after 8 and 16 consecutive losses..

    Code:
    If initializing script Then
       cs2.consec.losses = 0 :
       autohandle winning bets = "take bet and winnings" :
       autohandle losing bets = "no bet"
    EndIf
    
    If any(hardway bets lose) Then
       add 1 to cs2.consec.losses
    
       If dice total = 7 Then
          If cs2.consec.losses < 8 Then
             cs1.increase = 4
          ElseIf cs2.consec.losses < 16 Then
             cs1.increase = 8
          Else
             cs1.increase = 12
          EndIf
          bet last Hard4 + cs1.increase on Hard4 :
          bet last Hard6 + cs1.increase on Hard6 :
          bet last Hard8 + cs1.increase on Hard8 :
          bet last Hard10 + cs1.increase on Hard10
       Else
          If cs2.consec.losses < 8 Then
             bet last Hard(dice total) + 1 on Hard(dice total)
          ElseIf cs2.consec.losses < 16 Then
             bet last Hard(dice total) + 2 on Hard(dice total)
          Else
             bet last Hard(dice total) + 3 on Hard(dice total)
          EndIf
       EndIf
    
    ElseIf any(hardway bets win) Or hard4 = 0 Then
       cs2.consec.losses = 0 :
       bet 1 on all(hardway bets)
    EndIf
    
    Steen
     
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  13. basicstrategy777, May 22, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    Strategy:.......don't bet until you see a hardway rolled.......then bet the hardways.

    777
     
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  14. easymoney, May 23, 2017

    easymoney

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    i've tried the method of increasing the hardways $1 on loss and kept the same on win quite a few times. lots of fun and adreline high. lost some and won some. all luck.. the problem i encountered was my winnings were not that large. i won often but my losses were large. had my hardways up to $30.. a lot of times i couldn't get my investment back. i started at $5 and increased it $1 on loss as stated.
    the best way to use this method {my opinion} is on win, regardless of amount is to start over. that's the only way i showed a profit.
    i've also found that when i start at $2 instead of $5 and still add $1 on loss, i win more when i stop and restart on win.
     
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  15. yacraps, May 23, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    D am I reading this right? invest 6 bucks to win 30 to1, 9 to 1 or 7 to1
     
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  16. von duck, May 23, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Definition of "fun": losing ones ASS in a hurry. Ha ha ha ha...............
     
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  17. von duck, May 23, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    4 winners, 18 losers, sort of like playing V/P, your waiting for a "royal" run of hard ways. Love the avatar, why have you been so scarce?
     
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  18. yacraps, May 23, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    I reread my reply the hop on a hard way must pay more than 15 to one
     
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  19. Onautopilot, May 23, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    All the hopping hard ways pay the same....30 to 1. But I'm sure you know that, so maybe I didn't read the whole thread before adding this.
     
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  20. yacraps, May 23, 2017

    yacraps

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    Thanks JB I have never hoped the hard ways so I wasn't sure I remember reading one time that they paid 30 to 1 just wasn't sure
     
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