Hard Way Place Bets!

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by DeMango, May 31, 2017.

  1. von duck, Jun 27, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Lose on 7 win on hard way that you have placed, is there more to it then that, Suppah? Don't be "nice" bring it on.
     
    #41
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2017
  2. von duck, Jun 27, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    The math, is what counts to the casinos, and their winning record, is one hell, of lot better than yours. Any bet can win at any given time, but the fact that you would "tout" a bet with such horrendous H/A, tells me enough. There is a very good reason why the casino will let you bet less than minimum on these bets, and it's not because they don't want you to bet more.
     
    #42
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2017
  3. von duck, Jun 27, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    The math ALLWAYS wins out man. It is how the casinos determine what a winning bet will pay. They trust the math, and that trust has served them WELL. Oh, and just for the record, I do not hold the casinos in any where near, the high esteem, that you do. You are FAR too kind in your criticism of them.
     
    #43
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2017
  4. $nakeEye$, Jun 27, 2017

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    The MATH of the GAME - STOPS - with the casino's odds on the payouts -

    Which are LESS than the TRUE odds -

    The casinos also RELY on the RANDOMNESS of the game to enhance/ ensure their ODDS / CHANCES of winning -

    WHEN one can ALTER the odds / outcomes - even ever so slightly - from total randomness -

    THAT CHANGES the game immensely !

    $...eE..$
     
    #44
  5. superrick, Jun 27, 2017

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    These guys will see someone making the hard eight ten times and they will still be betting just the passline bet and wonder why they lose!
     
    #45
  6. von duck, Jun 28, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    When one CAN alter the outcome, yes, that would change the math. I'm not so sure they, the casinos, rely entirely on randomness, and it's the math, that tells me something isn't quite right,
     
    #46
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2017
  7. von duck, Jun 28, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    I've seen runs of hardways, but I don't know which one is the tipoff, that it good idea to bet them. The bet just seems to have too big a H/A to be a "target bet" for DI. If you are in fact making money on them though, I would say, bet the shit out of them.
     
    #47
  8. $nakeEye$, Jun 28, 2017

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    WHAT is NOT quite right - as you so succinctly state -

    Is the FACT that the casinos are CHEATING YOU and ME with EACH and EVERY wager / bet that we place on the layout -

    THEY are NOT paying what the TRUE ODDS are - THAT is THEIR RAKE / CUT of the pot each hand -

    THAT is HOW these multi Million / Billion buildings are being built -

    THEN - WHEN you WIN a few sheckle eckles - these MF'ers come down on your shit like flies on warm feces !

    But - IT is an EASY way to make a HARD living ! :)

    $...eE..$
     
    #48
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  9. von duck, Jun 28, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    I don't have a problem with them short-paying the bets "vig" as this would be necessary, for their existence. In the ten years or so that I played in Nevada, I really didn't suspect a problem. The last 15 or so years, playing in the east, I began to see things that I believe, wouldn't happen randomly. I've also noticed that certain things that should happen, do not, or at least not with the frequency,that they should. There are certain places, where I believe, that the game is DEFINITELY not random, this is MY opinion, and I have a pretty keen EYE, you can take it for what it's worth.
     
    #49
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Jun 28, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I have them beaten Baron, long term, but am not dumb enough to expect this will last a lifetime. So far, so good.
     
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  11. superrick, Jun 28, 2017

    superrick

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    Okay, Harley is back, but as I told him many times over shut up about it and bet on the numbers that you shouldn't be seeing!

    By the way anybody that hangs out with Harley is a sucker just like I was for all those years I should have Listened to all of those telling me about him.

    DeMango, was spot on when he was writing about Harley and specially Snakeyes.

    But back to the facts, you can make money on any bet on the table if those numbers are being rolled.
     
    #51
  12. von duck, Jun 28, 2017

    von duck

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    Yes, this is absolutely true, if the numbers you are betting on are rolled, you can make money. What you are saying is quite obvious, it's about the same as a stock broker saying, buy low, sell high. If you can do that, yeah, you should make money. Your statement,though TRUE, is completely meaningless.
     
    #52
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  13. von duck, Jun 28, 2017

    von duck

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    Being ahead with 1300+ buy-ins, and the aggressive betting, that exposes more money to H/A, is possible, but a little "difficult " to account for. Your not a "closet D/I", are you? Hell, if you left a $5 tip, that's $6500.
     
    #53
  14. DeMango, Jun 28, 2017

    DeMango

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    Thank you Mad Professor!
     
    #54
  15. superrick, Jun 28, 2017

    superrick

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    No, it's not if you are only betting by the math of the game you're going to be a loser. Hell, the math of tells you that but most here on this board insists on playing by the math of the game.

    All they can see is what the casinos want them to see and that is a few of the bets have a few low house edge bets. But the trouble with that is like the pass-line bet they lock you into that bet.

    Then let's not forget the 6's and 8's that most will bet on and just about every book tells you to bet on. But the one thing they do not tell you is those numbers have to be rolled to win money on.
     
    #55
  16. KokomoJoe4, Jun 28, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I attribute it to luck Baron. Had 4 or 5 LARGE winners to provide a nice cushion.
     
    #56
  17. von duck, Jun 28, 2017

    von duck

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    I have occasionally had a dealer, "help" me with a bet or two, when I needed it. Not sure if it was accidental, or intentional, but it seemed to be intentional. A "royal flush" or two in the mix, always helps, if you don't get crazy.
     
    #57
  18. TDVegas, Jun 28, 2017

    TDVegas

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    These are ALWAYS after the fact claims....AFTER several hard 8's have ALREADY been rolled. Well, of course someone could have, should have been on them. The reality is you cannot predict the hard 8's will continue AFTER you decide to make that bet...anymore than I say "now bet the hard 6"....

    The reality. Past data offers no useful info for future rolls...DI aside. I'm willing to submit my statement of fact to a test..any table, any casino, any amount of rolls.

    If a player feels since hard 8's have rolled...we should see more coming? So, you bet it.

    I will do the complete opposite and bet the hard 6.

    I say the hard 6 shows before the hard 8....and over the next 50 (100) rolls more hard 6's show than hard 8's. In fact I'll do this for any number declared as "bet it now". I do the opposite AND keep track...FULLY understanding I could get it wrong. I accept the "test", nonetheless. A larger sample size would be truly fair to both sides.

    These are gambler statements...nothing more. "If something is rolling...you should now bet it". It's not going to necessarily hurt or help you. It MAY hurt you if you pull money off the hard 6 to bet the hard 8....and then the hard 6 starts showing. You don't get to dismiss that outcome as you wait for the hard 8.

    If you say "bet both the hard 6 and hard 8"....I will simply pull my bets off the table. You get both numbers. In fact, take all the hardways if ya want...I'll wait for a 7. If 7 shows first, then I'll say "aha, you are now -4 units".

    Some gamblers forget about those outcomes. I don't.

    If past data provided any useful information for future rolls...first off, he ain't in here talking it up. He's in the casino. Secondly, if he is talking it up...I question the wisdom of attempting to kill the golden goose.

    In either case, these issues can be settled on the table...any table, not the forum. I'm willing to "see it work". I just can't be bullshitted with fast talk. Each and every bet is noted. As is mine.

    Sometimes predicting will work in your favor..sometimes not. You have no idea when it will or won't. These are always "after the fact" claims.
     
    #58
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2017
  19. superrick, Jun 28, 2017

    superrick

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    I will take you up on that you have my phone number, just to shut you up on what you don't know.

    HISTORY is something that isn't taught enough in schools nowadays. What happened in the past has a lot to do with what will happen in the future.
     
    #59
  20. TDVegas, Jun 28, 2017

    TDVegas

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    Not for dice. Other things, yes. We can learn from history. Not for dice.

    Sure on this test/challenge.
    These are my parameters...if you have any thing to suggest/change, do so.

    You pick a number after any amount of rolls you have witnessed--take as long as ya want. I will pick the opposite number.

    You pick hard 8. I will pick hard 6.
    You pick hard 10. I will pick hard 4.

    you pick 4-5. I pick 9-10.
    You pick 2-3. I pick 11-12.

    You say 8. I pick 6
    You say 12...I pick 2

    You go with 4-5-6. I will go 8-9-10.

    You have FULL CONTROL on picks. On/off. Change. Whatever.

    If you pick multiple numbers where I cannot choose an equal opposite, then this will NOT work. (although I would allow you to choose up to 18 combination of numbers. I will choose the other 18)

    You have FULL control over all your picks. I will simply pick the opposite. If your number hits before mine, you get a +. If my numbers hits, I get a +. All other outcomes are meaningless. Let see who gets to 25 +'s first.

    Bring pad and pencil.

    I'm available all week. Results reported here.

    I think who gets to 25 first is fair. Let see who is "right" more often. This can be done on a casino table, practice table, bubble or even on Dave's homemade table. It does not matter to me. Obviously, if you want to wager on your picks...that's entirely up to you. Money won or lost is not the purpose of this test/challenge.

    A practice table would be great because it allows you to roll ALL outcomes if you like---or I can roll. Makes ZERO difference to me. Plus, it would be quicker to get to 25.
     
    #60
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2017