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Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by DeMango, May 31, 2017.
Would that not be a negative expected value of 14.28571428571% ???? I could be off a tad!!!!
The difference between your style of play and mine is essentially -
YOU are burdened / influenced by the MATH of the game -
I am depending on the reality of what occurs at the table !
In your above stated example I might lose a few dollars with the reduced payout schedule as opposed to the center action HardWay bet -
But - MY $30 wager does NOT fall to an Easy Way, ONLY to a 7 - Out !
THAT, in my book , has MORE value as opposed to losing the ENTIRE $30 using YOUR Mathematically Correct style of play !
Sam Grafstein grudgingly gave advice to players he called "intelligent idiots" as to how, if you must, bet the hard ways.
This involved pressing from $5 to $25 to $125 to table limit.
Since the hard way places did not exist for him to comment on, you guys are safe, although I think he would like these bets even less than the ones paying 7 or 9 to 1.
If you can remember the night that I induced you to Snakeyes and Bill, the three of us were betting on the hardways because Snakeyes was rolling them!
Also Bill, was betting one of the worst bets on the tables and making money on it. FUNNY THAT THE SHORT BUS KNOWS HOW TO MAKE MONEY, and most on this board just dream about it!
I don't have a problem with you liking the bet for what ever reason you choose. All I was doing was pointing out the bigger EV for that bet verses the regular hard way bet.
I don't play the game by the math, I just use it to get an idea of my chances, for the bets I do choose to make is all. That doesn't mean I always choose the lowest EV bets, but when I do make higher EV bets, I know what my chances are of winning them.
In reality it would be nice to have opinions from folks who actually play at The Orleans, and get their take. Remembering 10 years ago only Sam's Town, Vegas, had the ATS. Now almost everybody does. Also the 4 rolls no 7 which I never heard about being installed anywhere else. So who knows if this bet will fly or not.
What, you don't think that we know the odds of us winning any bet that we have chips on hell that is why we bet on them? If snakeyes has the dice I know to bet the hardways he is betting on! I can say the same thing for everyone of the guys I go to the tables with.
That's the difference between guys like us and the guys that think you need to make the bets with the lowest house edge. We know that the math of the game is only for the casinos to figure out the Vig they need to take out of each winning bet!
The math doesn't make you a winner, rolling the numbers you have your chips on does!
OR - to say the SAME thing in a different tone of voice -
BET on the NUMBERS that YOU are THROWING !
This is actually, very sound advice. The problem is, I throw, all of the numbers.
The bet has been on their tables for a couple years now and is a great bet if you are rolling the hardways.
Funny that someone started a thread on the bet, but what do expect from guys that play three times a year over on the Wizards board, it has nothing to do with DeMango, because he can't hit every table in Vegas when he comes to Vegas.
Once again if you are betting the numbers you have chips on the math means nothing to you.
But DeMango alreadys knows that!
1. Steal a table
2. If ya can't get hands on a table post pictures of phony wins and stories until ya do.
3. See number one.
Harley anything to dream about.
Then you HAVE to BET ALL of the NUMBERS !
OR - Play a Bona-Fide Iron Cross strategy -
NOT the one that TDVegas professes -
But a REAL Iron Cross strategy where you win at least table Min on Each roll !
Which is 1X on the Field and 2X on the 5, Six and 8 -
You win 1X each roll of the dice min - Except on the 7-out !
The other hard way bet is even BETTER, if your rolling the hard ways? You have to place the bet, BEFORE, you know if your " rolling the hard ways".
Yes, the I/C, and the one you suggest is also my choice, though it takes a while to dig this one, out of its hole, about 6 hits to break even, unless you can catch the, double or triple.
OK, , I'll show you why this is a bad bet. First of all, the bet is not NEW, it has always been there. What is NEW is the $5 min. on this bet. If you took $13 and bet $6 place 8, and $7 hard 8, you have the same bet. You would lose only on 7 win only on hard 8. When the hard 8 comes you win $63 on , plus $7 on your place 8, for a total of $70. A $13 hard 8 place would pay only $65, both bets would lose the same on rolls of 7. This is exactly why a player SHOULD do the math. Place hard, is a very bad bet. This bet has always been there, you just had to bet in $13, or $14, units, depending on the number.
The hard way places DID exist for Grafstein, go to post #35 in this thread, I laid it out.
Excellent point re doing the math Baron.
Sam considered the hard ways idiot bets. Of course one could play them in conjunction with the place bets as you describe. However, the 5:1 payment on the "newly marked" bet takes the word idiot one step farther, doesn't it?
Perhaps Twelve4's will chime in here with reference to his IQ chart.
12/4s is pissed at me, cause I made a wisecrack about his avatar. May not hear from him.
To start with before you start posting on any bet you have to understand the bet.
So to be nice about this I put the link up so some of you that never saw the bet or have never used the bet to make money can understand stand it.
What did "somebody" miss?