Good advice on playing craps?

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by KokomoJoe4, Sep 16, 2019.

  1. KokomoJoe4, Sep 16, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Of course we all have different reasons for playing, but two things I am pretty sure are high on everyone's list are (1) winning as much $$ as possible and (2) losing as little $ as possible.

    In 2004, as someone who became sick and tired of losing damn near every time I played when on vacation, I read a couple of books on the game (pretty sure both were Scoblete), and concluded I would still lose using this advice.

    Thought about the game and decided I should convert to being a Don't player in order to give myself the best chance of winning, but realized I did not want to play that side, where once established on a bet as favorite, I would be risking more money to win less money.

    Next came the realization of the commonness of losing multiple bets all at one time. Quickly realized the only two ways around this are (1) stop playing the game, or (2) place only one bet at a time. Decided on the latter option.

    Relying solely on the math of the game, decided up front that a line bet, either Pass or Come is a "better" wager than a place/buy, unless buy bets can be found where the vig is paid ONLY on the winner, and where the amount bet can be increased without an increase in vig by the allowed rules of the house.

    I had long ago already decided that parlays on my come out winners were a smart bet, as long as I did NOT risk odds behind the parlays if/when they went out on a number.

    So at this point in time, my "method" involved using one of two plays, either (1) Line bet with or without odds depending on parlay, or (2) a single outside buy bet, only if conditions for this bet were acceptable at the location.

    As soon as I began to use this method of play, winning sessions became much more frequent. No, not all the time, probably not even the majority of the time, but nearly half the time.

    At some point after a nice winner where bets became larger because of winners, decided to design an aggressive progression to use if/when winning was happening.

    This was designed originally for the 2x or 3-4-5x odds typically seen on vacation.

    When the Rivers in Pittsburgh got table games in 2010, craps came with 10x odds, so I modified progressions in order to use these odds.

    When I last went to Vegas planning on play using Cromwell's 100x odds, you can bet your ass I had a modification ready for this, but never did get to try it there, as every session went up and down. Never had a string of winners to start progressing.

    I have NEVER seen anyone but DeMango who plays one bet at a time when at the craps table. I'm pretty sure that he knows this is the best way to minimize big losses.
     
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  2. basicstrategy777, Sep 16, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    I think most people around the table play craps because of the action.

    People go to the circus to watch the hi-wire guy, waay up in the air, without a net......the guy with the net, not so much.

    If you knew you would make money every time you played craps.....you're playing with a net..........I think many people would switch games....no fun.......

    Is my thinking off base ?

    777
     
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  3. KokomoJoe4, Sep 16, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    777,

    My entire point about finding a "best" way to win centered on the fact that I almost NEVER had winning sessions playing "typical" craps.

    Still have plenty of losers, but it is a hell of a lot better when the cash is not being regularly sucked out of the wallet.
     
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  4. TDVegas, Sep 16, 2019

    TDVegas

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    Isn't this really not seeing the forest thru the trees? Yes, you are risking more....but you also have the advantage. There is a very good and rational reason why you risk more by taking odds. You have an advantage. That can't just be ignored or summarily dismissed.
     
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  5. TDVegas, Sep 16, 2019

    TDVegas

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    If the desire is two fold....playing regularly and giving yourself the best shot to be net positive...I would agree with the latter option.

    If someone rarely gets to the tables (i.e., once, twice a month).....he might want a bit more action. With that comes the caveat of your first point...losing multiple bets on one outcome. Based on what I witness as a regular player and those playing regularly...multiple bets "out of the gate" is a tough hack.
    Sure...but if you are truly utilizing math, you are still expected to lose more money.
    No issue. I'll do the same.
    Fair enough. What I see "as a regular" on multiple bets across.....not really good overall, IMO. Infrequent play? Anyone can catch a hot roll.
    Sure...but if you are risking profit by going aggressive, you will walk break even vs. walking with smaller profit more often. Ipso, fatso....to each his own.

    if someone can live in Vegas, play 3+ times a week, all across and or multiple wagering and possibly bonus bets and stay strong profitable year over year.....god bless. From what I've witnessed from regular play...no way. Best advice...play as you wish.
     
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  6. Mssthis1, Sep 16, 2019

    Mssthis1

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    Typically I probably have more numbers working than you but, this is the change I made to my game that gives me the most satisfaction.

    Sunday before last on the bubble I got a $10 pass line bet to $195 (max bet on that machine) and hit it twice before I took it down to 10 because I'd hit my win goal. Those are fun and exciting even though a comeout craps will often rain on the parade. With the exception of 1 roll bets the line is where the action is. You're going to win or lose 1 out of 4 rolls on average.

    I occasionally get odd looks when I have a large pass line bet with less in odds than the flat. The current degenerate gambler trend at Prairie Meadows is to circle the machine slowly like a vulture to see what and how much everyone else is betting and then bet the opposite.
     
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  7. basicstrategy777, Sep 16, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    What happened on the third 10 dollar bet ?........I know what happened.

    777
     
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  8. Mssthis1, Sep 16, 2019

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    You made me go back and look. it hit one more time on a comeout 11 and lost to the next point 5.

    On the regressions, I've learned to ignore what happens afterward. Sometimes the next roll is mister nasty and sometimes the roll goes on.

    There's only one letter difference between Hero and Zero.
     
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  9. TDVegas, Sep 16, 2019

    TDVegas

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    LOL....good god. Is his name duck?
     
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Sep 16, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    There have been plenty of times where I see several successive one roll winners. One day a few yrs ago in particular, started progressions at a quarter, and turned it into $200 on 3 rolls of the dice (someone else was shooting), then my $35 line bet turned into $280. So on six consecutive winning rolls turned $60 into $480.

    Don't remember details of this same session (will have to look it up in my spreadsheet), but also had a $100 into $400, this time with only two parlays. So there's nearly $600 all from parlayed come outs.

    When the 7's and 11's are coming, I will always convert my progression into playing double odds, so that the flat portion of the progressing bets will be large as possible. Sometimes, this works very well!
     
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  11. von duck, Sep 16, 2019

    von duck

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    No Man, your exactly right. People hate winning. :confused: Get well, get well soon............:)
     
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  12. The Midnight Skulker, Sep 16, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I have seen at least two TV shows -- one was an episode of The Twilight Zone: A Nice Place To Visit -- that used a story line of having everything you ever wanted. The problem the protagonists had in these stories was that there was no challenge, hence no feeling of accomplishment. Victories were hollow because they were assured. I suppose you could say that that meant they were no fun, but I don't think "fun" is the applicable concept, at least not the primary one.

    However,a monetary reward for winning has extrinsic value; it can be used to improve one's situation, with the purchase of a desired service or object for example. Again, "fun" may be of some importance -- it certainly is more fun to win than it is to lose in my experience -- but I contend people would continue to play even if they knew they were going to win. In fact I believe some DIs here have claimed such a skill level as to all but guarantee a profit, and I do not recall any of them reporting a plan to give up the game.
     
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  13. basicstrategy777, Sep 17, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    The idea of being in a great battle with a superior foe and comming out on top is exremely satisfying.......extremely satisfying.......Ali may not have thought so at the end of the fight but his win against smokin Joe in the third fight had to be his best....he nearly died in that fight..........everybody has a plan, but like iron Mike said..." everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face".......you got a plan till the 7 outs smack you in the face....then what happens to your plan.......many dig in for more money...or chase......their plan goes out the window.......craps will test you....and reveal you.

    What I am trying to put across is that human nature reveals itself at the craps table......most people there are there for the action..IMHO....sure they are there to win money and would like to leave a winner, but 70% of them are ahead at some point and they don't leave.....greed and action, the best 2 allies of the casino......sloppy, no discipline players,,,the casino eats them up...........don't tell me that people here play craps only to win money....they play because it's fun, and they like the action and the thrill they get playing and winning.....satisfaction indeed...........now I concede I may be wrong in my thinking..........as I go to the casino to meet my friends, wearing my lucky hat, with a pocket full of beni's, in great anticipation of a fun nite , a little screaming and yelling, hi-5's, and a feeling of invincibility when I know I am KING of the table and nobody...nobody and no stinkin casino can beat me.......winning money is great but it doesn't beat THE FEELING.......money comes and goes......it's only money.............to me, a shared great time is hard to beat............I'd hate to think people go play craps just to win money.....they are not real bright if they do that...IMHO.

    777
     
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  14. twodicebilly, Sep 17, 2019

    twodicebilly

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    I go to beat the table...period.....its competition
    I played BB and baseball in college, and after till I was 50, fishing is the same,, you
    pit what you know against what some one else knows....

    Now the craps table is far harder to beat...but that is the point, your not supposed
    to be able to beat it....

    TDB
     
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  15. TDVegas, Sep 17, 2019

    TDVegas

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    I would say the above sums it up. Not all will admit to it...but you have, IMO, hit the bullseye.

    Action, fun. No one, IMO, has taken on craps as a money making endeavor. If they have, without a good job and/or other regular income....they will be sleeping in their car sooner rather than later.

    If an extra $5,000 comes your way by end of year via craps and you want to spend it on loved ones (fur coat---do people buy those anymore?, jewelry, vacation, etc.) or yourself....enjoy.

    If it "cost" you $5,000 to play craps for the year....consider your statement. "Fun, action, thrill".

    Counting on the former to happen each year and going out having or needing to make it happen?....see car, mattress, sleep.

    It's a great game...regardless. You can play it tight, enjoy yourself and if Lady Luck hits a bit (or DI or however you feel it happened)....walk out with a few dabloons....if not, think of the old golf saying. A bad day on the golf course is better than a good day in the office.
     
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  16. KokomoJoe4, Sep 17, 2019

    KokomoJoe4

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    Where'd you go to college TDB? Were you better at BB or bb? (That was a joke).
     
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  17. DeMango, Sep 17, 2019

    DeMango

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    This thread, especially the thoughts of BS, are so foreign from the thoughts expressed on Wizard of Vegas Forum. I think the sports betting system thread going on is worth reading, where some punter is betting usually less than a dollar on events, to test a system. The howls coming from the AP’s is so opposite of what’s here.

    The bottom line is can you make a profit using di? Or as TD famously asked, “You no like money?”
     
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  18. The Midnight Skulker, Sep 17, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    No bout adoubt it, and as you mention in the next quote the casino loves the hard hats/red necks who can't accept that they are fighting a losing battle. I have even seen not-so-hard hats and not-so-red necks become frustrated almost to the breaking point when nothing works, and [blush] admit to going near tilt myself on thankfully rare occasions.
    Action: definitely, though perhaps not as much as before the proliferation of casinos nationwide; greed: a little less so IMHO, though certainly a factor with some players. Nevertheless, I think the main reason players are reluctant to leave a winner after a short time is what is still called "the hidden house advantage", the fact that players have allocated a minimum amount of time to playing and have no alternate plan for something to do if things go too far south or north. If you're going south, when you're out of Schlitz you're out of pier, or so the saying goes; when you're going north the pier doesn't end, it merely doubles back on itself.
     
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  19. TDVegas, Sep 17, 2019

    TDVegas

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    No question, IMO. See it all the time. Guy starts with $50 with some off the wall, high house edge, prop betting and turns the $50 into $300 after 12 rolls.

    9 times out of 10.....continues same betting, $300 goes to reaching for the wallet.

    The casinos thrive on it.
     
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  20. The Midnight Skulker, Sep 17, 2019

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Of all the tales of whale and flea, the saddest are these: "It wasn't to be." --With apologies to John Greenleaf Whittier

    Here is my contribution.
     
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