# Gaming Commission Comedy of Errors …

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Harley, Jun 26, 2015.

1. black3car, Jan 27, 2016

### black3car Member

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Actually starting to enjoy this discussion again. Much more respectful. Thank you all. Of course TDV and eagleeye2 are having issues but after what has already been said that is understandable and I guess it will have to play out. But good show on all parts..or as Ed Sullivan used to say...good shew...really good shew!

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2. Onautopilot, Jan 27, 2016

### Onautopilot Member

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Try a bit of a different approach........

One biased die, heavy on the 6 face. The "known" percentage of bias produces the following expectations:

The 1 is expected to show 9 times in 36 rolls.....producing 1.5 sevens of the 1-6 combination. (Bias)

The 6 is expected to show 3 times in 36 rolls.....producing .5 sevens of the 6-1 combination. (Bias)

The 2 is expected to show 6 times in 36 rolls.....producing 1 seven of the 2-5 combination. (No bias)

The 3 is expected to show 6 times in 36 rolls.....producing 1 seven of the 3-4 combination. (no bias)

The 4 is expected to show 6 times in 36 rolls.....producing 1 seven of the 4-3 combination. (no bias)

The 5 is expected to show 6 times in 36 rolls.....producing 1 seven of the 5-2 combination. (no bias)

Total of all combinations...... 36

Total of all sevens................. 6

Ratio of 7's to rolls.................1-6

No increase or decrease in the expected frequency of the 7

The numbers 2,3,4,5,6 are bias favored.

The numbers 8,9,10,11,12 are biased negative.

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3. Onautopilot, Jan 27, 2016

### Onautopilot Member

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O.K., if you are introducing dice with two different biases, yes. And the possible combinations of biased dice are virtually endless. mixing weighted dice, mixing shaved dice, mixing both together.................Mixing any of those with fair dice..................an exercise in futility! I for one, am not going there!

Much like trying to identify a specific bias in a short term observation.

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4. black3car, Jan 27, 2016

### black3car Member

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Lightbulb is shining brightly here! Thank you sir! Just so my blood pressure stays at an acceptable level this is based on expectation as stated. On a real life crap table length of any one or more sessions will skew the numbers for that session...please, please, pretty please say YES!

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5. SevenOut, Jan 27, 2016

### SevenOut Member

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I spent nearly six years walking the hallways of two Universities... Schools of Higher Learning. Mostly wasted years.

The MATH people with PhD's and MS degrees have no more idea how to beat Craps, nor more likely to understand How to play a competent Craps Game than a compulsive gambler having more time at the table.

Their premise is the Mathematics and Statistical side of Craps. They understand that Craps and Mathematics are unbeatable in the long run. Even in the short run, unlikely. They would see themselves as FOOLS and discredit to their higher degrees if they stepped up to a Craps Table.

How do I know? They write BOOKS on how to WIN. Even that is not very profitable today. John Scarne was a master of gaming. He admits that Craps is already the winner when considering the Correct Odds and Casino Odds for payouts.

Go to a Gaming Math site. They open their notebook to their notes on Craps and recite the same numbers, over and over and over.... ad finite.

Bias Dice. Dice Influencing. This is pure nonsense, although many find it interesting to jump in and get kicked in the groin. Next time wear a... cup. The cup is a Mathematics Guy. They will say... do not play. The GAME is not FAIR... not the dice bias. If the Game were Fair... the Casino would shut the table down, layoff the dealers and add more Penny Slots in that space.

"Rile up the Ignorami" was a quote found in the Wall Street Journal this morning. Ignoramus but in the plural. Both sides of the ignorami have been aroused, as usual. One side is correct. This side is not Biased. It is the right side of the debate.

If I were to say which side, I would be Biased... and I will remain biased.

Casino Dice do not prefer any up face, other than the "smiley face" you will see when the dealers rake in the losing chips and pick a new... sucker to impress the ignorami....[/QUOTE]

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6. Settingcanthurt, Jan 27, 2016

### Settingcanthurt Member

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Are you sure the die moved ... or ... did the pips move on the die???

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7. Onautopilot, Jan 27, 2016

### Onautopilot Member

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Absolutely! Probability is before the fact, it just gives you what the odds are of something happening, not what will happen, especially in a short craps session. (Variance swamps HA in the short run!).

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8. eagleeye2, Jan 27, 2016

### eagleeye2 Member

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OAP,

One can make up whatever distributions they wish, (as you did above) but face reality & Open Your Eyes when a Dice Bias is in place, on a CRAPS TABLE & see how WRONG those #'s you Post are!

Then & Only then will you be able to bank some Casino Cash.

My Opinmion, of course, but it works for me!

eagleeye2

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9. Onautopilot, Jan 27, 2016

### Onautopilot Member

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My numbers are correct...I think! It is a "probability" exercise.....showing the correct odds of something happening, not what will happen!

But, played out over time those odds will hold true for the most part.....a mathematical confidence level that the probability exercise was in fact accurate.

(Short term variance swamps HA).......but it does not change the mathematical odds!

What works for you is the only way to go....I agree!

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10. Settingcanthurt, Jan 27, 2016

### Settingcanthurt Member

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[/QUOTE]

Sevenout a question on your premise. You state Craps and mathematics are unbeatable. in the long run. I would lay odds that there are plenty of players out there who do not agree with this because they are beating the game. They just do not spend time here or anywhere talking about it. They are out there. I am getting to my question.
Again stated if the game were fair the casino would close it down. From your eyes knowing what you do it sure seems to be true but to the greater majority of players/suckers who try to get lucky, they just don't care. Which brings me to my question.
This a numbers game. A small percentage of throwers know what they are doing. The majority just drop their bets and chuck the dice. Do you think if this game were mathmatically FAIR there would be enough of these losers playing to keep the tables open??? I do.

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11. Onautopilot, Jan 27, 2016

### Onautopilot Member

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I am sure sevenout can handle his own response to this, if he chooses to do so.

But here is how a fair game is expected to play out for the casino. (Mathematical probability)

The "aggregate" of all players are expected to break even.

The casino is expected to break even.

The individual player is expected to break even........but, the actual distribution of individual winners and losers will be skewed.

This is predicated on the casino having an unlimited bankroll, and the total "aggregate" of all players have an unlimited bankroll.

The long term results will be very close to the "break even" expectation....with some deviation, both negative or positive for either side. Neither side holds an edge, either with the odds, or the bankroll.

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12. black3car, Jan 27, 2016

### black3car Member

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But of course it is not a fair game. See I'm learning Oap!

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13. SevenOut, Jan 27, 2016

### SevenOut Member

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settingcanthurt.... OAP already is on track. He should have emphasized the "all players and an UNLIMITED Bankroll". This takes us back to the Dark Ages of "Fading Craps games", when a Bank was not the general practice of scammers and hucksters. Scarne covers them as well. The Faders needed to back up the opposite part of any and all wagers being made so a winning wager could be paid, and the operator of the game kept a percentage for themselves.

If the player has a "limited" Bankroll, they will leave as the loser and the Casino even with Correct Odds paid to the player, will ultimately win. How long that would take would depend on how poorly the Players System and Betting might be.

John Scarne, deceased, has a couple great books out in the "used" book market. He made his money consulting, nor by wagering any Casino game. Does that tell you anything? It should. I posted those on as a Thread back in the Stone Age of the Forum...

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14. SevenOut, Jan 27, 2016

### SevenOut Member

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John Scarne... Books

Scarne's New Complete Guide to Gambling
Scarne on Dice

These are my most valued books concerning gambling with my money. These are my ONLY two books on gambling. You can also collect the older editions as a fruitful pastime, rather than pandering towards others on the Crapsforum, i.e. "someone who caters to or exploits the weaknesses of others".

I have NO others gaming books, other than some Casino Dealer Class Manuals. ANY self promoting books are a waste of your money. Of course, in my humble opinion. They could actually distort your sense that any Casino table game has an inherent weakness. Would a Billion Dollar corporate giant not notice the inherent weakness found in a book selling for less than \$25, or \$10... included shipping? I find these as interesting fiction and I do not read fiction to support the reality that John Scarne offers for much less and not fiction.

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15. Pressit, Jan 27, 2016

### Pressit Member

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LOL
I just assumed from reading the original post, which is posted on the never ending bias dice thread, that both dice are bias but for 2 different reasons. I'm going to write a book, "The Strange Tale of Bias Dice, Dice Infuencers in the Age of The Captain"

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16. Pressit, Jan 27, 2016

### Pressit Member

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Both dice show a bias, but 2 different biases.

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17. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 27, 2016

### The Midnight Skulker Member

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As has been noted elsewhere, the number of rolls necessary to detect a bias with a given level of confidence varies inversely with the amount of bias present. A follow-up question would be: How many rolls would it take to achieve a 95% confidence level that a bias sufficient to make at least one bet player-positive was present? I'm guessing more than 30 but admit that is only a guess.

Another problem is the practical application of the test to a live game. Away from the maddening crowd's ignoble strife one could test dice one at a time; at the table one would need a way to identify each die and separate the recorded results by die, or track 5x30=150 rolls and assume each die in play had been thrown 30 times, and accept the results as an average. Still, after an hour and a half of recording rolls one would at least have some data to make a SWAG on.

A tip o' the hat for an informative post, Sahib.
You are not alone in your wrong rightness. Many times I have heard, "The math does not apply to the short term, and I play in the short term. Therefore the math does not apply to me."

Probability is a package deal. The math tells you what is expected. Actual results come very, very close to this expectation for casinos because of the large number of trials they experience. (BTW this is called the Law of Large Numbers, and was developed and refined over a couple of centuries by people who apparently did not have much of an imagination for naming mathematical laws.)

Not so much for players, who do not live long enough to get to the "long run". Nevertheless, their actual performance is still expected to be the same as calculated by the math, but with a "fudge factor". A player's distribution of results is not as tightly packed as a casino's around what is expected, and how spread out it is is quantified by variance. In actuality variance also applies to casinos, but it is so small (when expressed as a proportion) that it is typically not of any concern. Hence the misconception that the math applies only to the casino.
In this visualization did you by any chance notice, just before die launch, if the boxman bore a strong resemblance to Humphrey Bogart, glared daggers at the stickman, and said, "I said, 'Seven out, line away.'"?

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18. TDVegas, Jan 27, 2016

### TDVegas Member

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I would guess a pretty heroic feat in itself...forgetting that is only step 1 of the process.

I might need my Superman vision.

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19. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 28, 2016

### The Midnight Skulker Member

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Myself, I'd down a can of spinach and pump up the forearms with twelve- -- no, make that 32- -- ounce curls. Less conspicuous, particularly at one of Lone Irish Digit's tables.

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20. eagleeye2, Jan 29, 2016

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