# Gaming Commission Comedy of Errors …

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Harley, Jun 26, 2015.

1. black3car, Jan 27, 2016

### black3car Member

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In my simple mind this is exactly where I have trouble making sense to a math guy. I have stated before I understand the math is right on over the long haul. It's the short hall where I come to a fork in the road with the math folks...they seem to go left and of course I'm right!

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2. Pressit, Jan 27, 2016

### Pressit Member

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Well I am sure OAP will provide a clear, understandable and to the point reply.

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3. eagleeye2, Jan 27, 2016

### eagleeye2 Member

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How does one distinguish between short term variance results and bias dice results?[/QUOTE]

TDV,

That one should be relatively straight forward!

Biased Dice tend to be consistent in their BIAS, repeating the same abnormal incidents.

Short term variance, on the other hand, is just that, with #'s that should not appear popping up when they are not anticipated, but not consistently.

eagleeye2

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4. Onautopilot, Jan 27, 2016

### Onautopilot Member

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There is another factor that some do not consider, there will be more 1-6 sevens, since the biased die will show a 1 more often than the other numbers, 2-3-4-5.

BUT, there will be less 6-1 sevens because of the 6 heavy side. 6 being the least likely number to show.

This results is a normal expected distribution of the sevens with a 1 and 6 combination on either dice. You would not notice the excess 1-6's and the reduced 6-1's unless the two die were of different color.

The conclusion is....1-6 / 6-1 seven combinations will be expected to produce a normal, overall distribution of sevens.

The other combinations of 2-5 and 4-3, are expected to maintain their expected normal distribution of sevens.

There is a bias, but not for an increase in 7's.

An increase in 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6

A decrease in 6-6, 6-5, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1

All other combinations of numbers is expected to be a normal distribution.

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5. TDVegas, Jan 27, 2016

### TDVegas Member

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You're not wrong. Based on what you said, in the absence of 3-4...the die showing a 1 bias will pair up with either 1,2,5,6 on the other die. If 6 shows...you get 7.

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6. Harley, Jan 27, 2016

### Harley Member

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Pressit .... your thoughts are on the right path !! ... you need to consider also what was stated in the Link you provided (in your quote below):
Let's assume in this example that the 6 is weighted heavier - With the 2 major forces in play creating the more absence than normal of s and s, you have remaining these 4 faces spinning:

... so your 7s are tilted to these possible combinations more often

Likewise, your 6s () and 8s () are also made up more of these 4 die faces (what I call the Horn faces - die faces that make up all the Horn numbers) if any one of those 4 dies are weighted more than the others .... that is why Hard 6s and Hard 8s will disappear in comparison to Hard 4s or Hard 10s (depending on the weight distribution and how much out of balance)

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7. Pressit, Jan 27, 2016

### Pressit Member

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The problem as I see it is how we come together to agree on what defines a term.

In the short term, who knows what that mean, but lets say short term means 36 rolls.
Absent means not showing, but "lack of" isn't exactly clear, but it sure doesn't mean never.

Just so we are both on the same page. If one die is weighted towards the 6, that suggest the 1 is more like to show. But we don't know by how much. so for this example lets assume that means for all 36 rolls. So for the next 36 rolls that die is always going to produce a 1.

The other die has shown a lack of 3 & 4's. But lets assume lack means absence, so the other die only produce 1, 2, 5, 6.
So all rolls then should produce one of the following outcomes; 1-1, 1-2, 1-5 and a 1-6. A total 4 combinations. Also in your above explanation you included the 3&4. The 3 &4 are never seen. Gone, forgotten for this example.

So out of these 4 combinations, and all things being equal for the next 36 rolls, the 7 (1-6) should(?) appear once in every 4 rolls. 4:1 4 to 1.

I know this is a pipe-fitters dream, and such out comes are few and very far between, but we are dealing with number of possible maybes.

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8. eagleeye2, Jan 27, 2016

### eagleeye2 Member

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TDV,

Most here know that you do Not or Can NOT READ!

Try the following, DUH...

Good to see some of the folks bringing Statistical Probabilities into the picture again.

What the Non Believers (TDV& crew) fail to consider about Statistical Probability & Dice, is that it is based upon ZERO Bias in the Dice under consideration.

Where one sees Weighted Bias on Dice, (as is being discussed herein) entering the picture, established Statistical Probabilities go out the window, & one has to rely upon their own observations.

In my experience, we have both a Primary & Secondary increase in the # of 7's that occur when employing Biased Dice.

The Primary being with the Heavier Side Down, the Secondary being with the Heavier side up, as I have explained here previously.

Some here (TDV & crew) will say B.S., but open your own eyes & ask yourself, with the predominant weighted side appearing to be the 6, why do we see so many 7's, as 6 - 1's & 1 - 6's?

Also, why the noticable decrease in 3's & 4's; which correlates with the above concept & in no way matches the Generalized Statistical Probability, with Non Biased Dice.

Nuff Said, Chew on the above.

eagleeye2

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9. Onautopilot, Jan 27, 2016

### Onautopilot Member

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Apples and oranges! I am using "probabilities", you are using "what if's". The two do not intermix. Probabilities just computes the odds of something happening....what is expected based on a mathematical calculation.

What if's, are trying to guess, or supposing some scenario will occur.

Probability does not predict nor guarantee anything....it is mathematical exercise designed to show "probable" results!

Until one separates variance from probability, they might have trouble comprehending how each are totally independent of one another.

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10. Pressit, Jan 27, 2016

### Pressit Member

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The professor started his reach was based on the number of times the 1 showed. The dice he was using produced the 1 showing on average 29% of the time, when 16.67% is the norm. Even Caesars when he contacted them suggested their finding reflect a better that 19. plus% of the time a 1 will show. This professor findings came from 144,000 rolls of the dice, not exactly what anyone could label as short term.

Here is something others may be able to hang their hats on. Using a very short term approach, with the professor's 29% finding, bet the field, 5 and 6 after every 7 rolls where a 1 doesn't show for 1 to 3 rolls. Would it work, I have no earthly idea, but you may be at the tables for awhile before this situation presents itself.

Personally my biggest math challenge comes when watching the dealer's payouts, especially on crowed tables. Not suggesting they intentionally short change me, but when they are hurrying to dole out the chips, sometimes they do make mistakes.

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11. Pressit, Jan 27, 2016

### Pressit Member

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And if I am not mistaken I think that was original scenario. The 7 would appear 4:1.

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12. Pressit, Jan 27, 2016

### Pressit Member

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BINGO!!!!
Tomatoes or Tomatos
LOL.

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13. TDVegas, Jan 27, 2016

### TDVegas Member

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Nonsense. If it's a strict heavy 6 bias....the absence of 3 and 4 would be no different than absence of 2 and 5. Unless you are introducing a 2nd bias into the die beyond weighted 6....you're wrong.

Gravity and centrifugal force doesn't pick which number it likes or doesn't like better. In this case your 3-4. All things considered, the 5-2 would be under the same umbrella in terms of absence.
There would be no difference in the a sense of 3-4 and 2-5 UNLESS another, different bias beyond weighted 6 is introduced. You never stated a 2nd bias to that die.

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14. TDVegas, Jan 27, 2016

### TDVegas Member

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Who was questioning your thesis?

The original basis was one die weighted to the 6. The other random.
1-1,1-2,1-3,1-4,1-5,1-6
We will get a 6 expected every 6 rolls. 6:1

The 2nd basis was one die weighted to the 6. The other weighted to not show 3-4.
Then 1-1,1-2,1-5,1-6
We will get a 6 expected every 4 rolls 4:1

Do you know how to bet it is the question?

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15. black3car, Jan 27, 2016

### black3car Member

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You can say that again! But please don't!

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16. Pressit, Jan 27, 2016

### Pressit Member

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I bet the bias, if I can read the dice, if not I bet what numbers are repeating, and I always bet the 4 & 10. Well not always this something I just started in the last year or so.

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17. Pressit, Jan 27, 2016

### Pressit Member

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In this example both dice have a bias. one dies doesn't produce any 3's or 4's, the other die only produces 1's.
So you'll never have a 1-3 or a 1-4. In this example you can't have numbers that never show. So the probabilities in this what-if scenario are reduced to "4" combinations, one of the 4 combos is a 1-6.

Taking my dog to have her nail cut, then going to get my hair cut.

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18. TDVegas, Jan 27, 2016

### TDVegas Member

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remember, we are talking probabilities...not definite-alities.

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19. Bases loaded, Jan 27, 2016

### Bases loaded Member

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I'm visualizing a dice roll that comes up in my favor - 3/6 Niner, niner... then suddenly the die showing 3 flips up in the air and its now a 1... 1/6 ... LINE AWAY.

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20. TDVegas, Jan 27, 2016

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