Gaming Commission Comedy of Errors …

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Harley, Jun 26, 2015.

  1. Harley, Jan 26, 2016

    Harley

    Harley Member

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    Onautopilot - not so fast my friend, this is where you have read too much fantasy and fiction from irish, TDVegas and Heavy:
    Sample size is overrated especially since biasness can be observed in as little as 30 rolls according to a "well-known "Pearson's chi-square" hypothesis testing procedure."
    http://deltasdnd.blogspot.com/2009/02/testing-balanced-die.html
     
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  2. TDVegas, Jan 26, 2016

    TDVegas

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    Absolutely. No one is arguing that point. Variance allows for just about anything..short or long term rolls.

    So then why did they bring up expectations and apply numbers/resulting expectations? You can't have it both ways. If it's NOT applicable in your mind, then we should not have any discussion based on "expectations"---probabilities if you will. This was NEVER a case study argument or what I observed argument or what I tracked argument. This was simply an expectation argument.

    How does one distinguish between short term variance results and bias dice results?
     
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  3. black3car, Jan 26, 2016

    black3car

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    [/QUOTE]
    Respectful informative post as always! Greatly appreciated hartzehn22!
     
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  4. TDVegas, Jan 26, 2016

    TDVegas

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    As has been pointed out to you MANY times..if you can determine bias in 30 rolls and not be able to profit to the nth degree....you are beyond help.

    Whether it was Midnight pointing out the stats or anyone else here, if there is a bias to certain combinations of 7, that means there is also a bias of certain numbers not appearing. Apparently that advice went over your head. As usual.
     
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  5. Harley, Jan 26, 2016

    Harley

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    TDVegas - I understand biasness and I also understand that there are 5 different die on a table .... not all die are created equal .... one pair of dice can be weighted or biased in 26 different combinations .... what part do you not understand that the combination to the vault can change from shooter to shooter ... what you bet on 1 shooter may not be the same way to bet on the next shooter, etc.

    How do you know that Shooter Z has the same exact pair of dice as shooter X ??!! .... evidently that concept goes way over your head

    see http://www.crapsforum.com/threads/dice-can-be-weighted-26-different-ways.8678/
     
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  6. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    What is "normal" distribution? That is probably not the best definition, we would better referring to it as "expected" distribution, given the parameters of the dice.

    Fair dice are expected to produce a distribution of the 36 possible outcomes that reflect the mathematical odds of each numbers expected frequency. We could call that a "normal" distribution for fair dice.

    Biased dice are also expected to produce a distribution of the 36 possible outcomes that reflect the mathematical odd odds of each numbers expected frequency. That frequency of the different numbers differs from fair dice

    So we look for the "expected" distribution that applies to the "new parameters" associated with the know bias.

    With one biased die weighted on the 6 side, we would expect a distribution very different than with two fair dice.

    Logic tells us if more 1's show up on the bias dice than any of the other 5 sides, we are going to have a distribution that favors all numbers with a 1 face up. And less numbers with a 6 face up.

    We would have to know the exact amount of bias to accurately determine the probability of all different combinations of numbers. If we knew the exact degree of bias, we could establish a "normal" expected distribution for that bias condition! Creating a whole new game for us, while enjoying the bet values established for a "fair" dice game! YEA!

    BUT, knowing there is some degree of bias for the #1 showing more than any other number on the bias dice, one can logically expect to see a certain increase in the frequency of all numbers with a 1 face combination......1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6. And less of all number combinations requiring a 6 face showing.

    This is a result of examining the "probability" of distributions. This is done with mathematical calculations. It does not predict the actual results of any number of dice rolls, It does however, give you the information that allows you to select best bets based on the calculated odds of those numbers showing, and the bet values established by the casino.

    In the case of one bias die weighted on the 6 side, those best mathematical bets include, but not limited to the following:

    The field, buy 4, lay 10, place 5, lay 9, place 6, and lay 8. The don't side would be attractive also, since you have some options of picking up certain bets that have a new higher probability of rolling, and leaving those bets with a lower probability of rolling.

    All of this is hypothetical, and only an attempt to show the "expected" results of some known bias if it existed.
     
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  7. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    I agree totally, if you can't determine the bias, then you definitely can not take advantage of it! But most of the recent conversations addresses some known bias, that continues to exist (Hypothetical at best).

    Mixed bias dice in a choice of 5 dice, would be virtually impossible to identify any one of the multitudes of possibilities. You would have to have the 5 dice contain the same bias, for a chance to eventually identify any bias strictly by observation alone. And other than all "flats", that would also be chore, a mixture of weighted dice could give you fits. :)
     
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  8. TDVegas, Jan 26, 2016

    TDVegas

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    Well then why are you wasting time and effort trying to figure out the suspected bias of 2 dice when 3 other dice also can be put into play per shooter??...thereby making a new bias. In fact there are now multiple combinations of dice. Then how does the casino even know how you are going to bet? What if your betting, just by luck happened to be on the side of the bias? What if the rest of the table was betting that way as well. Suddenly the house has now introduced dice that have given the benefit to the player.

    You still never answered Midnights question. If the bias is indicating a 6-1, 5-2 bias for 7's. That means less 3 and 4's. Lay the 5 and 9!!!

    In the end it's all nonsense because what you are suggesting is a MASSIVE cheating scandal that would bring Vegas to its knees....and for what?

    I reiterate, NO ONE who can determine a bias in 30 rolls is in here complaining. He is simply relieving the casino of their cash.
     
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  9. Settingcanthurt, Jan 26, 2016

    Settingcanthurt

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    I was thinking the pips might be moving around on the die to the houses advantage
     
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  10. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    Those that wish to forego the probabilities and math involved in both fair dice expected results, and biased dice expected results....and just bet according to what you believe, or feel is unfolding with the dice rolls, no problem.

    You are probably just as well off, since fair dice are what they are, and the bet values are fixed. And for all practical purposes, most people couldn't identify a small degree of bias in the dice anyway. If it was obvious enough to identify in a short observation, it wouldn't exist for any length of time...or the casinos would find themselves on the short end, in quick fashion! Not all players would pick up on it, but there would be enough to put a pretty good leak in the boat. :)
     
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  11. SevenOut, Jan 26, 2016

    SevenOut

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    OAP... I can relax my case and go back and hibernate into my cave. You can carry the message as well as anyone on this Forum!

    Attention Bias Dice supporters:

    WHY must you concentrate on the SIX PIPS creating the Bias? TDV in post #53 explained that if that your entire proof and example of Bias... you have nothing. Now you have to explain multiple die biases. How does that complicate your mathematics and outcomes?

    The Six would be heavier than the One face.
    The Five would be heavier than the Two face.
    The Four would be heavier than the Three face.

    OK... now explain this dilemma. NOW Dice Bias has an argument presenting TWO EQUALLY CONCLUSIVE alternatives against the SIX-ONE die bias.

    Then explain if the Hot Stamping creates any Bias when applied to the one pip. A serial number on the six pip.

    TDV and my insistence of What is the source or sources of die bias... has come up with the coup d'etat in a graceful manner without causing physical or mental anguish towards an opponent.

    OAP has perfected the Mathematical Theory as well as anyone could, without peer review and altering his premise.

    A Craps Player can only leave the Craps Table as a winner ONLY when the dice outcomes can deviate from the mathematical and statistical expectations. Otherwise, why participate by wagering at a Craps Table?

    I have expressed my ideas on WHY a die could be or become biased. It reaches deaf ears and a blind eye to the message. Why... because it cannot be ignored in a debate, but is conveniently ignored as it totally disproves Dice Bias is a negative in ALL examples. It is not, as TDV posted in #53 and OAP... you deserve to be the moderator of future Die Bias Threads with TDV and myself protecting the flanks from attacks that have no merit in this discussion.

    Die Bias has been defeated using their 6 heavy and 1 light pip theory.

    I do not know WHERE dice bias comes into the die. Is it the cube ready to have pips drilled and filled? Or the imprint of the hot stamping. Or is the bias such that it is so negligible to be of no contribution to bias, at all.

    This is where I have found myself with credible evidence and the Dice Bias supporters with NOTHING to offer but repeating a losing example.
     
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  12. SevenOut, Jan 26, 2016

    SevenOut

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    Settingcanthurt... the most plausible explanation next to a shooter slipping a blank polished die onto the table and the Boxman exclaims... "Who slipped that bias die onto the table?" Lacking pips, hot stamping and value.

    It may not even be illegal to drop a blank die onto the table. Even the Dealer's hand book and manual never mentions that. Maybe 7uwin will come forward and toss out an opinion. Without die bias, of course.
     
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  13. SevenOut, Jan 26, 2016

    SevenOut

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    MY biggest threat after point is the Point Seven Out. That is only one roll after point. Someone had posted that a Seven appeared later... than the next roll after point.

    I am just too lazy to hunt that quote down, fillet it, fry it and serve it upon a dice cup to OAP and TDV as a snack.
     
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  14. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    I have way too much time on my hands right now.......I exhausted my gambling allowance for the month earlier than ""expectation" would have indicated! :)
     
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  15. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    Reminds me of a story....a shooter tossed three dice down the table, supposedly trying do a "switch" of one of the dice, and the palmed one came out also The total on the three dice added up to 14. The box, slid two of the dice back to the shooter, and said, "Point of 14!". :)
     
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  16. TDVegas, Jan 26, 2016

    TDVegas

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    That's great!
     
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  17. Settingcanthurt, Jan 26, 2016

    Settingcanthurt

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    I have thought of having the blanks tested by placing roman numerals on them with a sharpie and having the tosses be recorded, if possible.

    If a die were to be biased it has to be in the cellulose. A bar of "bottom heavy weighted" to be cut into a die could produce many biased die and this could be just a random part of the mfg process.
    It goes unnoticed. It is unintentional and they get made for any casino. There is no conspiracy, the dice are just not perfect. I would bet that if we could do this it would show my hearsay has weight.
    The only way to test each die at a table would be to spin it say 7 times on precision holders by two corners using a tiny tip the corners fit into perfectly. It aint happening.
    Even if this testing was done some loser would squawk. Personally I believe the dice to be imperfect which points to the dice. Saying they are biased points unfairly to the house.

    Why would the house do this and how would it work to their benefit. Again. 5 dice, how many biased? To produce what? It's senseless and no amount of posts will change this.
    Regards to all. Its been entertaining and educational. Lets all get along and act like adults. And drink to disagree. Cheers
     
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  18. Settingcanthurt, Jan 26, 2016

    Settingcanthurt

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    Dice have come a long way. If no one has, look closely at my avatar.
    The white dice are bone. hand made and probably from the 1800's. Some are certainly buffalo they all look very primitive. The smallest ones are close to 1/4 inch or less...
     
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  19. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    I'm not worried about "peer" review, I am worried about those with a heck of a lot more expertise in probability math....like The Midnight Skulker, saying, "WHOA, wait a minute OAP!". :)
     
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  20. Pressit, Jan 27, 2016

    Pressit

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    One die shows a bias of producing more 1's, the other die shows a absence of 3 & 4's, those are not absolute results, they don't occur on every roll of the dice, but if the 7 should show, the likely hood should be a 1-6. Where am I wrong?
     
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