Gaming Commission Comedy of Errors …

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Harley, Jun 26, 2015.

  1. black3car, Jan 26, 2016

    black3car

    black3car Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2015
    Messages:
    618
    Likes Received:
    226
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Indiana
    Thank you Oap! I appreciate a respectful answer when a respectful question is posed. That isn't the norm for some on here and it looks like I'm going to have to take the advice I've been given before. Use the official "ignore" link and I won't have to deal with it anymore. Again, thank you for your answer. It is sincerely appreciated. The person answering like a smart arse claims to not be a math expert either. It would seem that person would treat a fellow non math expert with just a tiny bit of respect...I guess not though! :)
     
    #41
  2. TDVegas, Jan 26, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,886
    Likes Received:
    10,742
    Ok, as polite as I can be...for probabilities in craps, there is no other method in determining expectations other than the math. You seem intelligent, I'm surprised you asked the question in the first place. This is why I gave you a ridiculous answer. The bottom line is that there is no other credible method.

    I mean, what else could there be?
     
    #42
  3. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,765
    Gender:
    Male
    I think a lot of the confusion comes from only looking at one aspect of the thing.

    Probability deals with expectation.

    Statistics deals with actual results.
     
    #43
  4. TDVegas, Jan 26, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,886
    Likes Received:
    10,742
    which Harley post?

    The weighted 6 dice was being used in conjunction with a good die...
    The expected outcome would be 1-1,1-2,1-3,1-4,1-5,1-6.

    Obviously anything can happen..but these are expected outcomes.

    If two bias dice trend toward 5/2 and 6/1 sevens. That suggests the 3 and 4 faces have less chance of showing than the others. Point numbers of 5 and 9 cannot be thrown without a 3 or a 4 showing. One would simply lay those numbers.

    Harley and his bias dice cohorts got hung up on betting don't pass and then made arguments against it...when the real answer was right in front of them.
     
    #44
  5. black3car, Jan 26, 2016

    black3car

    black3car Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2015
    Messages:
    618
    Likes Received:
    226
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Indiana
    Ok I agree...however, not everyone relies on the math when looking at things. It makes sense to those who are not math focused that in the short term more 7's could appear if one dice has a weighted bias like the example. It could happen that in a short session on the craps table you could get killed and it could happen in a short session that a player could not be affected at all. That is when my frustration sets in when someone relies solely on the math to prove a point.

    Sure over thousands of rolls the math people will be almost right on. Refer to the link to the study in post #477 on the bias dice thread. Again, in the short term in my simple mind, the math goes out the window and could go either way. This leads me to another conclusion that I make (right or wrong) that the continuous debating over something like this gets old because one side uses apples the other oranges. Nothing will get solved and the same things get rehashed.

    I guess that is when I need to move away from the thread so the onus is on me. But this is an open forum I feel like I have the freedom to respond in the way I have ...deep breath...done. :)
     
    #45
  6. TDVegas, Jan 26, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,886
    Likes Received:
    10,742
    Anything "could" happen....that isn't the basis of their claim. Their claim is rooted in "expected" to happen and tries to justify the claim using math. Not only are they faulty, they are wrong.
     
    #46
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2016
  7. SevenOut, Jan 26, 2016

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,322
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    89005
    Craps mathematics is the Rosetta Stone used to set Correct Odds of a pair of six sided dice and the outcome pyramid has been on this Forum a number of times for those who do not want to read long explanations.

    Mathematics are available for ALL DICE with any number of faces, already. Check it out. At what point is Dice Bias eliminated and at what number of faces does this Bias disappear entirely?

    Any deviation within a Statistical Error of actual use is what WE, as players are looking for outcomes. This is how a Craps Player can win... Deviation of the Expected Outcomes. I have that in a number of my OLD Threads.

    No one claims Bias if a Hard eight is rolled twice in a row. Statistically the Mathematics has that a Hard Way is "expected" to roll X times per X rolls.

    Deviation of Outcomes. Bias Dice Outcomes. Statistical Deviation of Bias Dice Outcomes.

    If you do not have a handle on the mathematical side of Craps, you cannot use "Assumption of Dice Bias".

    The black3car Post #477 under Bias Dice Question show some "variance" of outcomes, as well.

    Although all of this is fun to banter around... most of the arguments are based on the white pips having the weight of lead or gold to Acetate.

    When a turbine is installed into a passenger jet... what tolerance is permitted to be within the range of perfect? A grain of sand stuck onto a turbine fan...

    I make the statement that those dice used at a Craps Table ARE within the range of perfect dice and the outcomes are not outside the expectation of the mathematical and the statistical error of "variance".

    All of these subjects and terminology have been used on this Forum.
     
    #47
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2016
  8. black3car, Jan 26, 2016

    black3car

    black3car Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2015
    Messages:
    618
    Likes Received:
    226
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Indiana
    Okay thank you for your respectful reply on the second try. My question has been answered respectfully 2 out of 3 times and that's a pretty good average. As far as wrong or right, in this instance, that is for you and the folks you are debating with to ponder. I will respectfully excuse myself from this now.
     
    #48
  9. Pressit, Jan 26, 2016

    Pressit

    Pressit Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,582
    Likes Received:
    1,196
    Gender:
    Male
    Back on the bias thread. In the absence of the 3 & 4 where you have 1 die weighted to the 6 producing a 1, that means your chances of rolling a 7 , --6, is 4:1
     
    #49
  10. black3car, Jan 26, 2016

    black3car

    black3car Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2015
    Messages:
    618
    Likes Received:
    226
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Indiana
    I raise my hand in agreement. Respectfully I might add! :)
     
    #50
  11. eagleeye2, Jan 26, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,411
    Likes Received:
    572
    Gender:
    Male
    Good to see some of the folks bringing Statistical Probabilities into the picture again.

    What the Non Believers (TDV& crew) fail to consider about Statistical Probability & Dice, is that it is based upon ZERO Bias in the Dice under consideration.

    Where one sees Weighted Bias on Dice, (as is being discussed herein) entering the picture, established Statistical Probabilities go out the window, & one has to rely upon their own observations.

    In my experience, we have both a Primary & Secondary increase in the # of 7's that occur when employing Biased Dice. The Primary being with the Heavier Side Down, the Secondary being with the Heavier side up, as I have explained here previously.

    Some here (TDV & crew) will say B.S., but open your own eyes & ask yourself, with the predominant weighted side appearing to be the 6, why do we see so many 7's, as 6 - 1's & 1 - 6's?

    Also, why the noticable decrease in 3's & 4's; which correlates with the above concept & in no way matches the Generalized Statistical Probability, with Non Biased Dice.

    Nuff Said, Chew on the above.

    eagleeye2
     
    #51
  12. TDVegas, Jan 26, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,886
    Likes Received:
    10,742
    One die is weighted to the 6 producing a 1...got it
    The 2nd die is weighted to either 1,2,5,6...thereby not showing 3-4?

    Chances of rolling a 7 would depend on the bias number (weighted). If the 2 was weighted, you would expect 6. If the 1 was weighted, expect 7. If the 5 is weighted, expect 3. If the 6 is weighted, expect 2.

    No, under that scenario....it would not be 4:1. Only if the 1 was weighted....thereby the expectation would be 1:1...a 7 rolled everytime.

    Now, if the bias non 3-4 dice was biased in a manner where the other 4 numbers come up as expected...then, yes it would be 4-1. Then the question becomes how would die be biased to ensure you don't see the 3-4...but do see the other four numbers as per random?

    A math guy can correct me if I misspoke.
     
    #52
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2016
  13. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,765
    Gender:
    Male
    I know you do not want to hear this, but there is no way to ignore the math when it comes to the game of craps....it is predicated on the math.

    Every bet on the table has a "value", that value is established using math.

    The casino uses math to establish their edge, by paying a percentage, less than true value for every bet on the table (excepting odds).

    The dealers use math in calculating correct payouts.

    The player uses math when deciding how much to risk on their bets.

    When evaluating different betting schemes to establish the probability of success or failure (how much luck is needed), the math is essential.

    When calculating your present position as to bankroll, it's a math counting thing.

    When trying to establish the probable results of a known flaw in the dice, it is absolutely predicated on probability mathematics.

    When evaluating the results of observed actual past rolls, statistics / math, is the only option.

    When playing hunches, acting on superstition, listening to the little voice in ones head, or playing while inebriated.......NOW, there is the time that math can be completely IGNORED! :)

    Don't take this too serious, I'm just funnin' a little while your popcorn is in the skillet! :)
     
    #53
    SevenOut likes this.
  14. TDVegas, Jan 26, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,886
    Likes Received:
    10,742
    Whoa, whoa, whoa. We went from claims of bias with mathematical probabilities used as a basis for your argument to "own observations, open your eyes and in my experience"...

    I thought you were stupid before. Now I'm convinced.

    Why didn't you just state from the start.."this is my opinion"...?????? Or "based on what I observed" or "this what I think might happen".

    You should have never mentioned probabilities or expected outcomes.

    Harley, Rick, he's all yours. Smh.
     
    #54
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2016
  15. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,765
    Gender:
    Male
    They may go out your "window", there is no doubt about that! But then you must have two "windows", one you keep open to throw "probability mathematics" out, and one you keep closed to reality!

    But if you really believe what you are proposing, as to statistics and probabilities, and have made up your mind that there is no other possible "truth".....then I have no problem with that in the least.

    But I suspect there is more to it than that, for you!

    It seems to me that a graduate engineer from a big 10 school, would welcome a rational, and logical discussion on this subject......without reposting the same proffer over and over again, or ending sentences with DUH as an exclamation mark.

    Another thought might be that you are TROLLING, if that is the case, you have accomplished your objective in hooking a few of us. If that is the case, and it amuses you, that's o.k. also, we all get our pleasures from various activities.....if I contributed to yours, you're welcome!

    After all, there is a certain limit to discussions about the game of craps, then it becomes a rote exercise....but a new "twist" will always be offered by someone, some more "twisted" than others...yours an example in point! :)
     
    #55
  16. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,765
    Gender:
    Male
    You might want to recheck your math on this one.
     
    #56
  17. black3car, Jan 26, 2016

    black3car

    black3car Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2015
    Messages:
    618
    Likes Received:
    226
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Indiana
    I agree with every single thing you said. It helps a player to know what to expect over the long haul. Short term or session anything can happen. That is all I have ever claimed when having a discussion with a math person. As I've stated before, there is an apples and oranges comparison here. For the 83rd time I understand that everything in craps is based on the math. Short sessions changes the expected to the unexpected. The one session then you die scenario speaks specifically to the math. I agree with the hunches and such but session length also affects the math expectation.

    Edit* I have absolutely no issue with you Oap. You are respectful, witty, knowledgeable, and all around nice guy on here. Hey, if I can dish out the "having fun" part with people I can surely take it. I just have an issue with people who seriously personally attack people and start the name calling. When that starts, any respect I may have had for the individual goes out the window until they earn it back. If they don't want to earn it back, that is fine by me but then I make adjustments on my approach and my willingness to converse with said person. :)
     
    #57
  18. Onautopilot, Jan 26, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,765
    Gender:
    Male
    Yep! And that session with a positive "variance"is what we play for! :)
     
    #58
  19. black3car, Jan 26, 2016

    black3car

    black3car Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2015
    Messages:
    618
    Likes Received:
    226
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Indiana
    Absolutely! The respectful, knowledgeable, and witty people on here have taught me that! Thank you! :)
     
    #59
  20. hartzehn22, Jan 26, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2015
    Messages:
    989
    Likes Received:
    392
    Black3car- yes you are right! Obviously there is randomness to a roll so sometimes you will see a seven out show within 2 or 3 rolls. Or you could have a longer roll that might last for 25 tosses without seeing an actual seven.

    TDV is sticking strictly with "expectations according to the math". This is NOT applicable to a real craps table game with a bias dice and a non-bias dice. Expectations can and will become abnormal.

    I would bet money on it that most math oriented people on this forum would always argue that short term variance is often mistaken for bias dice by people who claim bias dice exist. That's why showing the statistical analysis of the numbers/data of actual live casino rolls is so important in proving one's point that in fact bias dice actually do exist!

    When the proof is NOT shown - then the pudding can not be tested or tasted. Yes, it is up to us the bias dice folks who are ridiculed for "making this stuff up", to either show them the $$$ or shut up!

    Well OAP already stated that the 61 combination would cancel out the 16 combination, so for the purposes of the argument that has been raging now for 500+ posts- one would, I believe, theoretically not see an increase in 7's. But this valid definition of "mathematical expectations" is completely not taking into account trends, short term variances or the bias dice!

    "Normal" distribution/expectations are based on fair and balanced dice but "normal distribution" is not applicable when you have bias dice. Once you have a large enough sample size of tosses and you see the abnormal distribution of the numbers, then you can in fact claim bias dice or dice influence.

    Because I am intuitive and born from a Craps god, I believe that you can detect bias dice based on the patterns and combinations that you see from each and every shooter over a relatively short period of time on the craps table. You can start to see deviations from the expected norm and this is when I start to jump on the bias bandwagon..... conductor hat and all. Toot toot!

    Those bias dice are like little uncontrollable devils that pair up and reek havoc on the craps table. They quickly drain the right sided bettor and they toy with the dark sided player, egging him on to lay odds just one more time on that 10 or four that has now hit back to back to back. They come in the form of 3's, yo's and big daddies. Or they will repeat 31,31,31,11,11, 41,41 and then 61 or is it 16....you know - like that irritating rap song over and over again! You might first think that the table is simply cold or choppy but then you realize the dice are doing their Dante's Inferno I've got bias dice for you dance!

    You are simply giving an example of expectations according to the math correct?

    I'm sincerely not siding with anyone here just trying to understand. Remember I have a simple mind! :D[/QUOTE]
     
    #60
    eagleeye2, SevenOut and black3car like this.