Field Bet Martingale..Math help

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by basicstrategy777, Jan 3, 2012.

  1. falcon, Jan 27, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    6
    kst: The question was mostly rhetorical. Everyone's opinion and conversation feeds into the thread and can be accepted or rejected as one's intellect might process. There is no need to trouble yourself and your valuable time for a Powerpoint presentation. The math is what it is and it is all gambling.

    falcon/tuttigym/DB+W
     
    #41
  2. kaysirtap, Jan 27, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    483
    Likes Received:
    22
    falcon: I was joking.
     
    #42
  3. falcon, Jan 27, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    6
    kst: I best just get hammered. Hold on while I drink another O'Duels.

    falcon
     
    #43
  4. guido1, Jan 28, 2012

    guido1

    guido1 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2011
    Messages:
    88
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Newport Beach, CA
    No problem.
    I gots some sim data. Not much interesting from my side but you will enjoy the data. That has to come later this weekend.
    You hit your $500 win goal about 85% of the sessions played. Even had a win streak of 48 sessions.
    More to come...
    Oops
    forgot the photo
    [​IMG]
     
    #44
  5. guido1, Jan 28, 2012

    guido1

    guido1 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2011
    Messages:
    88
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Newport Beach, CA
    My daughter did the colors. Thanks
    Hey, we sound like brothers!
    I too am short, fat, dumpy, old, computer dude!

    Yep. Most times I buy in for $4k. You want to know how I play?
    I bet everything, not at the same time and I bet for complete sets of bets for a distribution of a certain number of rolls between 3 and 72.
    Maybe I start a new thread one day.
    I love variance, but I know that most bets I make I can not do all the time or I will get crushed by the house edge.
    I just had a long work week. Will respond later.
    I do make both bets by the way.
     
    #45
  6. falcon, Jan 28, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    6
    [q=guido1]: Hey, we sound like brothers!
    I too am short, fat, dumpy, old, computer dude![/q]

    I wrote "computer illiterate." I am nowhere in your class of proficiency.

    [q=guido1]: Yep. Most times I buy in for $4k. You want to know how I play?
    I bet everything, not at the same time and I bet for complete sets of bets for a distribution of a certain number of rolls between 3 and 72.
    Maybe I start a new thread one day.
    I love variance, but I know that most bets I make I can not do all the time or I will get crushed by the house edge.[/q]

    Without going into great detail, does "complete sets of bets for a distribution" mean wagering patterns, i.e., multiple Place bets simultaneously after the point is established? A simple short answer will do, if possible.

    falcon,tuttigym/DB+W
     
    #46
  7. guido1, Jan 28, 2012

    guido1

    guido1 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2011
    Messages:
    88
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Newport Beach, CA
    A complete set. I look for the wait time. How many rolls until all events happen at least 1 time.
    Example for place bets.
    Betting for all the place bets, not every roll, until all 6 hit at least 1 time.
    or
    Betting for all the place bets, not every roll, until all 3 groups (4&10; treated as 1) hit at least 1 time.

    I also break the table into 2 bets. Field and 5678
    The field is the easy bet. The 5678 can only be made as an 11 unit hop bet.

    I also break the table into 3 bets. Field and 568 and 7.
    Now the Field is easy to bet, the 7 can be made any 7 or a 3way 7 or with combos using a lay or lay bets.
    Also the 568 can be placed but there is way more variance in hopping the 5 6 and 8.
    I do not always bet all 3 bets at the same time, but sometimes I do, depending on the actual distributions of the sets that I have seen.

    I know the averages, but more importantly the variance and actual distribution numbers.
    There are also many other bets I use as a "set"
    I can even expand the 3 bets to 4 or 5 bets.

    It is easy once you understand everything I do, but that requires one to understand the math behind each bet within a complete set.
    Of course I can never change the house edge, but I use the variance of the bets to produce winnings knowing that I am limited in the actual number of bets I can make in my lifetime as ev/sd is always there.

    Yes, I use negative progression sometimes, positive progressions sometimes and flat bet sometimes.
    edit:an example coming soon.
     
    #47
  8. Mr7-11, Jan 30, 2012

    Mr7-11

    Mr7-11 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2010
    Messages:
    207
    Likes Received:
    13
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    NJ
    Whatever your system, try it instead on the passline where the odds are much better.
     
    #48
  9. falcon, Jan 30, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    6
    Mr.7-11: When you bet the FO associated with your PL wager, do you bet a minimum of 5X the PL bet? On a $10 table with a $10 PL bet, is your minimum FO bet $50?

    falcon
     
    #49
  10. guido1, Jan 30, 2012

    guido1

    guido1 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2011
    Messages:
    88
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Newport Beach, CA
    Why 5X min odds?
    What math is behind this?

    No odds = 0.014141414 *100 HA
    5X odds = 0.003263403 *100 combined HA
    Is it because of the difference of 0.010878011 or 76.9230769% between the 2 bets?

    Now,
    Single odds lowers the combined HA by 40% from the HA of taking NO odds.
    5X odds only lowers the combined odds by 15.38% from the combined odds of 4X.

    I like 40% better than 15.38%. Don't you?
    Taking too large of odds with small bankrolls, as most Craps players are horribly underfunded, even the high rollers,
    is a formula for a very high Risk of Ruin.
    or am I twisting the numbers to favor my view?

    Free Odds just adds variance without expected loss.
    And any FREE variance is a good thing. (as long as one does not over bet the bankroll)
     
    #50
  11. kaysirtap, Jan 30, 2012

    kaysirtap

    kaysirtap Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2011
    Messages:
    483
    Likes Received:
    22
    If I were to guess... I would say that we're about to hear the argument that despite the "mathematical gymnastics", the Pass Line is only better than Place bets after taking 5x odds, since that is when the former pays better or equal to the latter.

    But of course, that argument (3-4-5x) would be valid for comparing Place bets to Put bets... not Pass Line bets.

    But again... I'm just guessing.
     
    #51
  12. guido1, Jan 30, 2012

    guido1

    guido1 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2011
    Messages:
    88
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Newport Beach, CA
    OK, that is clear.
    Many craps players like to compare come bets with odds vs. place bets. But they are 2 different animals.
    Like comparing an apple to a bowling ball.

    To quote WinCraps Help section:

    "We can compare bets with commensurate risk."(different bets that is with different rules and rates of resolving)

    "This means we can compare bet amounts that will produce, on average, the same amount of action per unit of measurement."

    Just like betting the pass line with no odds and with odds. The expected loss is the same, so many say it is stupid to make an odds bet.
    But a $5 flat bet compared to a $5 flat with 2X odds are not the same unless we make the flat bet $11.67 which is the average bet for $5/2X.

    Or the field bet with a 2.78% HA to place 5 with a 4% house edge.
    Is not the Field a "better" bet because the HA is less than the place 5?

    But even after attempting to explaining this,
    a man still hears what he WANTS to hear and disregards the rest.

    (from the song)
     
    #52
  13. DeMango, Jan 31, 2012

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2010
    Messages:
    5,532
    Likes Received:
    2,348
    Gender:
    Male
    Good one! There are many "Boxers" on this site (Oh Rudy!)
     
    #53
  14. falcon, Jan 31, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    6
    If one chooses to bet the PL on an 11% chance of winning that bet (22% chance of a 7 or 11 - 11% chance for a 2,3, or 12), that is fine. The betting of odds can only occur after the point is established which happens 67% of the time. When the PL player wins at Come out that is great. If I choose not to play the PL, then I lose out on that 11% chance to win that first roll bet, and I am behind him in winnings. I would have no problem with that simply because of the choice I made.

    However, if I were a PL player playing 2X odds and not the shooter and the point is a 10, wouldn't it be nice to know that a Place bet for the same $$ amount is going to pay more than the combo PL/FO at 2X? A $10 PL + $20 (2X odds) will pay $50 and that $30 Place bet on the 10 will pay $54, and I did not even "buy" the 10. In MS when the 10 does hit on the Place bet, I can "buy" it for $1, which the PL/FO bettor can not do, and my reward is an extra $5 net $4 - total win is now $58 net or 14% over that PL/FO winner, and the $$$ risk is identical.

    falcon
     
    #54
  15. guido1, Jan 31, 2012

    guido1

    guido1 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2011
    Messages:
    88
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Newport Beach, CA
    You are still confused as are most place bettors.
    You still are comparing a place bet to the 2nd stage of a pass/come bet. That is so sad.

    You can not do that. It is a felony in every point in the known craps universe.

    One can only compare place bets to put bets, since each bet is a standing wager against the 7 and neither had to go thru the come line.

    It is OK NOT to understand a two staged bet comparing to a one stage bet for whatever reason.
    The only fair way to compare two different bets is by total action (resolved bets). period. No Enron accounting allowed here!

    you do not want to do that, so live with it.
    It is OK to see the world only through your eyes. That is why most of us have two of them.


    It is true that many place bettors dislike come bets for this reason and that reason, all in the place bettors Bible, making it look like pass and come bets are the real sucker bets, direct from Satan, compared to place bets.

    The smart craps players do know the truth.
    come and place bets baby! mix in place bets for down with odds and press to the table limit.

    Place bettors are still revered by all pass/come bettors because the place bettors pay way more for the nice casinos that are built these days than pass and come bettors ever could.

    Let the race war continue.
     
    #55
  16. falcon, Feb 1, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    6
    [q=guido1]: You can not do that. It is a felony in every point in the known craps universe.

    One can only compare place bets to put bets, since each bet is a standing wager against the 7 and neither had to go thru the come line.[/q]

    I am currently serving my "time" in an alternative craps universe where logic rules and the simple "easy to teach" math is king (no Dewey Decimal System here) .

    Let's try this approach:

    1. Odds bets cannot be made until the point is established for the PL and Come.

    2. 67% of the time the PL bet is inert and provides no "comfort" or foul language.

    3. Therefore, the PL wager, 67% of the time, now becomes a "put" bet.

    4. And therefore, the 1X, 2X, & 3X PL/FO 67% of the time gets the "short change" shaft from the house on its payouts.

    5. To complete the brainwashing, the craps establishment has fostered and ingrained a fact that somehow an 11% chance (net) of winning a table minimum (for the most part) wager (your so-called "two-stage" bet) will overcome Place bets of equal $$ amounts 67% of the time.

    [q=guido1]: It is OK NOT to understand a two staged bet comparing to a one stage bet for whatever reason.
    The only fair way to compare two different bets is by total action (resolved bets). period. No Enron accounting allowed here![/q]

    6. Since the point can only be tossed once, the Place bettor's two, three, four, etc. "stage" bet becomes the press which will continue to outperform the usual one time FO wager for that point. As long as the shooter throws numbers that are not the point, the Place bettor will reap victory after victory at the rate of two to one even against the Come/O bettor. However, when that 7 does show up, I fear all left on the table save one Come bet is lost.

    [q=guido1]: It is true that many place bettors dislike come bets for this reason and that reason, all in the place bettors Bible, making it look like pass and come bets are the real sucker bets, direct from Satan, compared to place bets.[/q]

    You mean they are not??? Wow, go figure!!

    [q=guido1]: Place bettors are still revered by all pass/come bettors because the place bettors pay way more for the nice casinos that are built these days than pass and come bettors ever could.[/q]

    Man, and all this time I thought that it was the slot players, carnival card game players, and the roulette folks that got us the ambiance.

    falcon
     
    #56
  17. The Midnight Skulker, Feb 1, 2012

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    4,066
    Likes Received:
    4,275
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    OK, let's do try this approach.

    1. So? Odds bets are separate from the flat Pass/Come bet, made at different times under different conditions.

    2. I have no idea what you're saying here. A PL bet is always working, never inert.

    3. More precisely, during the point phase, which is reached 67% of the time, a PL bet functions like a Put bet.

    4. I say again, Odds bets are separate from the flat Pass/Come bet, made at different times under different conditions. They have nothing to do with the comparison of flat PL bets to Place bets. Both get short changed, as you put it, and during the point phase the flat PL bet gets the greener weenie -- because it did not get resolved on the comeout roll where, if it had been resolved, it would have won twice as often as it lost.

    5. You are going to have to show your work on this one. Mine is at http://www.crapsforum.com/viewreply/6002. Remember to make both bets on the comeout roll and have the Place bet working.

    6. And so the Place bettor is in effect making more bets than the Pass/Come bettor, and if those bets win is making more profit than the Pass/Come bettor. An observation to put Yogi Berra to shame: You win more when you win more. :bug: Who'd a-thunk it!
     
    #57
  18. Southern-Comfort, Feb 1, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2011
    Messages:
    850
    Likes Received:
    31
    Oh my god. You're not stating that the Dewey Decimal System is math are you???
     
    #58
  19. The Midnight Skulker, Feb 1, 2012

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    4,066
    Likes Received:
    4,275
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    Well, he did say alternative craps universe, which presumably has no relationship to reality. I understand accountants do their time there as well, you know, where 2 + 2 = whatever you want it to be.
     
    #59
  20. falcon, Feb 1, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    6
    The MS:

    1. So? Are you saying the different "conditions" are rain, sleet, and snow? 67% of the time the different "condition" is that the flat bet did not win or lose. It is at that time that the odds bets are pushed out on the green unless that player falls asleep; is checking out the cleavage on the nearest hostess taking orders; or is passing gas.

    2. When the PL bet does not win or lose on the come out, it is moot or inert 67% of the time -- nothing happened to change its condition unless the player wishes to fondle it; pray over it; or provide hand signals prior to the next toss.

    3. Well guess what you and I agree.

    4. I am not sure what exactly you mean by the "greener weenie." Is that better or worse than the Place bet win? Your repitition of # 1 is addressed by my #1. Admitting that the PL flat bet gets "short changed" is not going to make guido1 very happy. He emphatically stated that PL players never get "short changed" at "ANY" time. That last "statistic" is really nice, but you need to be sure to inform the others that "won twice as often as it lost" is a whopping net 11% of the time.

    5. I have trouble making sense of what the craps establishment believes let alone "show(ing) my work." Having the Place bet working at Come out is nonsensical. Which number is working or are you suggesting that one should bet across the board and have them all working at Come out against a single PL wager at the table minimum? I don't think I will buy into that one.

    6. Not sure what #6 means - see #5 above.

    7. So why did you not address the odds better at 1X, 2X, & 3X vs the Place bet on the same number with the same $$ amount at risk 67% of the time? Oh, I forgot, you did, you stated that they get "short changed" 67% of the time along with the Place bettor, but you did not say that the Place bettor makes more money. Why is that???

    falcon
     
    #60