EXPECTED VALUE

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Linaway, Sep 19, 2017.

  1. James Hall, Sep 22, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Nothing like a little self love
     
    #141
    lone irish digit likes this.
  2. twodicebilly, Sep 22, 2017

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    Top


    I don't remember saying I was taking the little
    joe class....do you

    As far as the other, I am just not as talented
    as you are. Life just sucks


    tdb
     
    #142
  3. tabletop123, Sep 22, 2017

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Wrong! You are probably MORE talented than I am. Matter of fact, I claim absolutely no talent. I am just one of MANY that has spent countless hours perfecting my delivery.

    Only difference is that I understand the limitations associated with attempting to influence the dice. At some point in time, ya realize that the Toss is only part of the equation, & probably the least important component that leads to success!

    Why? Simply because your toss Mechanics ( even though finely tuned) WILL fail you, ( mostly when ya least expect it),& ya never know when that dang Seven out is coming.
    That's why it is so very important to bet the game correctly!

    Regarding the Little Joe Class.....my apologies. I automatically assumed ( premature...I know) that you'd be taking another class, since ya mentioned it. No harm no foul!

    Regarding talent, or lack thereof......I claim NOTHING! No more talented than you, or anyone else that attempts to influence the dice.
    Admittedly so, there WAS a time that I THOUGHT that I was one of the best tossers in the Country!

    I no longer have that thought, simply because the Casinos have humbled me on MANY Occasions. The hardest part for most precision shooters is to Detach from gambling ( wagering improperly), & trying to toss long hands, instead of concentrating on making a profit, & pulling your bets down at the earliest opportunity.

    Loading the bases, & pressing at Every opportunity is NOT the optimal way to win at craps.
    However, you could never say that to a guy that practices their toss, because they believe that the Toss is EVERYTHING!
     
    #143
  4. superrick, Sep 23, 2017

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    TDB, you are just wasting your time with TDV, you saw how he plays, why in the world would you waste your time on him? You're never going to win at this with him! I could send him photos of my wins like I have been doing with a few of the guys and he would write that they were not my wins!

    There never will be a conversion of TDV to your way of thinking so what you are doing is nothing more than arguing with someone that has a closed mind and thinks that there is no way that anybody over the long run can be a winner at craps.

    You should have seen what you were up against when you watch how he played the bubble craps machine. Winners do not play craps that way. What he is doing is just killing time in the casinos and hoping to win a few dollars if he gets lucky!

    I see nothing wrong with the way that he plays if that is what makes him happy! We all play for different reasons, some guys play for entertainment and playing a dollar bubble craps machine will make them very happy.

    I play to win at the game and have spent a lot of time finding out how to do just that. I went out a got every book I could on the game and on casino management so I could understand what I'm up against every time that I walk into a casino! Some guys on this forum will not even pick up one book on the game!

    Now, it would be stupid of me to go out and play tennis without knowing something about the game. The only way for me to learn about it would be to buy some books or take a few lessons! Then if I wanted to be any good at it to practice the game on the tennis courts.

    Common sense should tell you that is what you would need to do if you wanted to be any good at tennis! Well, the same thing goes for craps, but you see I already know that TDVegas is going to come back and say that no matter how much you practice you will never be able to beat the game in the long run!

    I'm always looking for new ways to beat the game of craps and reading anything I can about the game to see if there is something that I can do to improve the way that I play the game! Now, I know that I could never win if I was betting do and don't and then betting just the 6 and 8 playing craps, if I did that I would be on a suicide mission playing that way!

    You need good wins to keep you in the game because there are days that you should have stayed home in bed but you can limit those days by the way that you play and how you take advantage of a good roll when it's happening!
    There will always be good rolls on the tables and if your timing is right you may catch one of them. But when one is happening you can't be the guy that never press his bets and after an hour roll walks away with nothing to speak of! I've seen so many hour rolls and you will see guys on the table that when it's over with they have a pass line bet and that is it!

    The next time you have a dealer tell you about an hour roll ask him how much money the table dumped, it will shock you to find out that those hour rolls in most cases don't hurt the casinos. Most players on the table make almost nothing on those rolls!

    If I was you I would put more time into my game and forget about TDV, isn't it all about the money? Do you really care what some guy that you will never have anything to do with thinks about how you play the game?
     
    #144
  5. Mssthis1, Sep 23, 2017

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    If you bet across and don't press until you have your initial investment back you have to have an SSR of 8 to come out 1/2 of a bet ahead. That is assuming horn numbers are a random occurrence.

    If you press right out of the gate you have to have a higher much higher SSR to breakeven unless you can afford the huge money swings until you finally catch a long roll.

    I've only met one person who can consistently do that in a casino environment and it isn't me.
     
    #145
    tabletop123 and yacraps like this.
  6. twodicebilly, Sep 23, 2017

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    SR

    I don't care in the least what TDV thinks.... what matters is what I
    think about what I am doing , it is my money.

    I personally think that all of us on here have a few screws loose.

    This is worse than childs play.

    But it is what it is..... I got some craps to play this weekend


    tdb
     
    #146
  7. superrick, Sep 23, 2017

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    Well, do what you do and win some money as you know for the most part I won't play on the weekends so I'm off to a car show with the wife!
     
    #147
    basicstrategy777 likes this.
  8. TDVegas, Sep 23, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    I don't think he can stop.:confused:
    Oh, no, no, no...please don't. I've already seen that done with Harley and James Hall.
    Likely right. You will not get me to convert to delusions (mistaken beliefs). This is fine...after all, this is craps---not some religious conversion.
    Long term winners are definitely possible. It's a small number, but possible. I'm not sure why you continue to repeat this lie. Delusion? Mistaken belief? I'll have to consult with BTL on the proper terminology on this one;)
    As we all are.:)
    TDB's wins are bigger than mine. Gargoils wins are bigger than yours. I'm sure there are players out there whose wins are bigger than all of us combined. What's your point? A few months ago a player won $300,000 off the Bellagio tables. Is he a "real craps player"...but you are not?
    He does not need to practice to be net positive in the long run, IMO. On this I kind of agree with table top. He enjoys doing this and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. No one is "beating" the game...technically speaking. These are your delusions (mistaken beliefs) and you are of course entitled to them. Winning in the long run is a different story. That is possible. Being in the casino a lot..I see MANY people win.

    I'm going to try and ween myself off the word delusion and use "mistaken beliefs" instead. More user friendly.:D
    Negative. A good roll HAS happened..not IS happening. There is no way to know what is coming next. You've said that yourself.
    Absolutely. Timing is everything. Well, almost everything.
    This is EXACTLY what I have advised him to do.:mad:
     
    #148
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2017
    DeMango, yacraps and betwthelines like this.
  9. betwthelines, Sep 23, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    Hammer:
    The Nail:
    Head:
    Hit:
    Right on.

    displaying past results plays upon a human universal, superstition, present even among renaissance men and the Enlightened.

    it does no harm.

    but it does increase play, ergo house handle

    no fools these casino operators

    tom p
     
    #149
    yacraps and James Hall like this.
  10. James Hall, Sep 23, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    learning to use this information is very difficult , however done correctly pays large dividends
     
    #150
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2017
  11. betwthelines, Sep 23, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    yes. i agree. "mistaken beliefs" is better.

    yer right...delusions does have too much of a negative connotation AND THAT WAS NEVER WHAT WAS INTENDED by me...sure, i have tried to explain what i meant and that while delusional thinking is usually a bad thing or is unhealthy, in the case of a silly thing like craps, it really does no harm AND INDEED MIGHT EVEN BE A GOOD THING in the fun and diligence it provides for many...but this goes over the heads of the subjects who see only negatives--- --- and besides, if ya hafta 'splain it, lucy, you are probably not communicating clearly in the first place...lol

    so right. "mistaken beliefs" it is...well, of course, this too does not have exactly a positive connotation...lol...but it is something that no one can deny everyone holds some of and it is, yes, less "loaded" a term than delusional.

    even so no matter what terms are used some on here will perceive even the mildest of disagreements as an "attack" or an "insult"...only agreement or affirmation will do for these tender souls.

    so in the end i am not going to worry overmuch about it all.

    tom p
     
    #151
    TDVegas, random_roller and Druck like this.
  12. James Hall, Sep 23, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    there will be others who will also pick up on this and use , "MISTAKEN BELIEFS"
     
    #152
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2017
  13. betwthelines, Sep 23, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    well...maybe... ...after all i am quite original... ...imitation being the highest form of flattery, no? (ok...ok...pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! never mind that i picked this one up from tdv...lol)

    i see that you yourself have started to call your tormentors "delusional"...not very original, do you think?

    your recent usage reminds me of its practice in both the intellectually dishonest area of politics, where partisans routinely accuse their opponents of things which they are guilty of themselves and--now--apparently--on craps forums.

    hm...well then if that's the case and it's going to be copy-cat-ism then, maybe i wont use it.

    i prefer "fool's paradise" anyway. positive connotations be damned!

    :cool:

    tom p
     
    #153
    TDVegas and James Hall like this.
  14. James Hall, Sep 23, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    I don't call those folks copy cats , I call them , "THE REPEATERS" you used the term delusional then TDV picked it up and then the "REPEATER TRIO" followed suit
    Then you metioned people accusing their opponents , that is a trick that saul alinski liked to teach politicians . Some of them have learned that
    to the point where the Liberals & conservatives are now locked in an all out war of perpetual INVESTIGATIONS
    Well that trick actually began on craps forums . Sauk Alinski was a big fan of craps forums
    He's now dead you know
     
    #154
  15. Linaway, Sep 23, 2017

    Linaway

    Linaway Member

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    James,

    I call them myths. Get a kick out of busting them.
     
    #155
  16. TDVegas, Sep 24, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Yesterday...New Dallas Cowboys themed felt for football season...

    That is a craps layout...
    Those are chips in the background...
    Those are rubber pyramids on the side...
    That's a chip rail in the lower right...

    In case James Hall has forgotten what they look like;)

    image.jpeg
     
    #156
    James Hall likes this.
  17. superrick, Sep 24, 2017

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    Oh, then I have to stop out and see you with that layout on their tables
     
    #157
  18. James Hall, Sep 24, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    I do remember and I appreciate you taking the time to think of me and pointing all that out . At my age there are some things
    I don't remember very well , but when it comes to craps , it all remains crystal clear
    I did notice one thing however , YOUR CHIP RACK IS EMPTY, did you have a bad roll ?
     
    #158
  19. TDVegas, Sep 24, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    I guess you didn't notice the chips are locked down. That is another little feature that was put in use a while ago to secure chips on a closed table. I understand your lack of knowledge on this front....you don't play;)

    No harm.
     
    #159
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2017
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  20. James Hall, Sep 24, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    I noticed the chips , locked down I also noticed that the table is in need of repair
    You assume I don't play because I don't spend half of everyday in a casino
    I don't have to play , I have the luxury of playing when I want
    Unlike you I am not driven by the need to be in casinos everyday engaged in the impossible task of recouping
    a lifetime of gambling losses
    I hope that at some point you can get back even so you can once again play for just the enjoyment of the game
     
    #160