EXPECTED VALUE

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Linaway, Sep 19, 2017.

  1. Linaway, Sep 19, 2017

    Linaway

    Linaway Member

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    Expected Value

    What would your reaction to craps be if you could find a number of ways to know what to expect at outcome?

    Would these results be at a mediocre or an encouraging rate of occurrence?

    Using probability as a yard stick, one might try this link to test it for reliability. If you’re using Firefox as your browser, the graphic results of each hand sample will not show, only how number outcomes will be displayed and frequency. Chrome will allow Adobe Flash to work to provide a column graphic. You could turn this into a Parto chart where dual Y axis could be represented as quantity on one side and percentages on the other.

    https://nces.ed.gov/nceskids/chances/

    Wong’s theory on correlation might be better tested if a responder can see beyond the top two die faces. There are three axis to dice!

    Just so you know before a response, The Table of 36 “basically” is only good for how numbers can be displayed. No, there are not 36 numbers, only 11. Then the tricky part. If you look closely at the triangulation or pyramid of the table of 36, you see diagonally across the square 15 numbers in upper R/H side, then followed by 6 number pairs, followed by 15 more numbers. Wait, those last 15 numbers are not more numbers, they’re inversions of those in the upper R/H part.

    Hmm, that’s only showing 21 primary ways a number can be shown without inversion or summed repetition. If we are going to be convinced there are 36 numbers, then we also have to believe the other two axis of the three possible must also be considered and how they're applied.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 19, 2017
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  2. Mssthis1, Sep 19, 2017

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    Thanks for the link.

    You do know some people are going to put in a 10 roll sample and say the dice in the RNG are loaded.:);)
     
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  3. twodicebilly, Sep 19, 2017

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    LINAWAY

    as we discussed this morning with that set that you and I like. If you want to change your set
    to arrive at somewhat different outcomes we can change the faces we see on top several ways and
    still have the same 7 set in the x axis. This is important if you only want to tweek your set.

    The type of shot also makes a huge difference in talking about sets.
    The GTC guy looking at a 35 36 set will have 6/1 2/5 in the x axis and the same set rotated to shoot
    in a LJ style will have the same 6/1 5/2 in the x axis but have a different set of numbers in the tossing plane.
    One constant is if using the LJ shot it does not matter if you pick up the dice on the left top corners of the
    dice or the right top corners, you still have a front or back face of 6/1 2/5 .

    Now if we could just take our practice table to the casino.

    tdb
     
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  4. Linaway, Sep 19, 2017

    Linaway

    Linaway Member

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    TDB,

    Your right when you point out the "locked Axle Variable" of any given preset being tweaked or observed at outcome.
     
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  5. Linaway, Sep 19, 2017

    Linaway

    Linaway Member

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    Mssthis 1,

    Hope you find the link will show you how fickle probabilities are. You also can use the link to set up an imaginary table session and practice your strategies.

    Note....this post continued in next response. I kept getting a server error message.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 19, 2017
  6. Linaway, Sep 19, 2017

    Linaway

    Linaway Member

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    continued...
    About the loaded dice in the RNG. Believe it or not, I have designed and built several Electronic Dice devices. They can be used in most games requiring a dice outcome.

    Tweaking circuitry creates altered results. It's called bias in electronics where you insert controlling components over various functions to behave to your intent. I've tweaked my design to prevent the user from attempting to time outcome results. Yet the device can be used equally well as a random chucker or a rhythm roller. These functions make for interesting results but fair as an RNG goes.
     
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  7. PropBet, Sep 19, 2017

    PropBet

    PropBet Member

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    Linaway to the netherworld, can you hear me now.

    Beam me up Scotty.

    His flux-capacitor powered tin foil space helmet can communicate with the planet of Dice-speak. It will receive signals in dice code that tells you when the dreaded devil is about to roll.

    For $29.95 mr dice-speak will ship you one anywhere in the continental united states. As he says above each helmet can be tweaked so the airwave frequency can be matched to the latitude and longitude of the casino you're in.

    OMG and people believe this shit.
    Just toss the frickin dice!
     
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    Last edited: Sep 19, 2017
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  8. Liman

    Liman Member

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    I love this shit.

    is it locked axle variable or locked axial variable?
     
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  9. superrick, Sep 19, 2017

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    Maybe, you should try it before the two of you go on the war path!
    I would love to see either one of you on a real live table!
     
    #9
  10. Mssthis1, Sep 19, 2017

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    It was actually more fickle than I expected. I always assumed 3600 rolls would be a large enough sample to prove or disprove a theory. Looks like I was wrong, it takes a much larger sample.
     
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  11. Linaway, Sep 19, 2017

    Linaway

    Linaway Member

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    Mssthis 1,

    We share differences of opinion about rolls to qualify worth of our intent. There are certain specifics about dice properties many are not aware of. Taking numbers from an RNG source is not a true way of evaluating a shooters proficiency acquiring certain components of dice. An RNG only sees two entities as die1 and die2. Each die has an independent clock that can only see 1 to 6 count, then begins all over again. When the RNG is stopped, both dice come to rest forming a number but it only is residing in the Y axis [top]. X and Z axis is not considered.

    Data coming from an RNG will not allow the user to determine on or off axis. You must have 4 die faces to be able to read dice. IMO this link I gave is primarily there to show how fickle probability is. How any particular shooter skews probability in many instances can several ways be consistent giving the shooter a high percentage of EV.

    Dice behavior from a practice rig and a live table is quite different as are the dice. You must acclimate to these conditions on every table or fail.

    I am a retired lab rat. I don't buy into the law of large numbers or whatever it is. I can observe a few rolls of the dice on any table by any shooter and know if the dice are fair or not. LLN doesn't recognize dice mechanics, only math. You would need 400 shooters each having a hand of about 9 rolls to get 3600 outcomes. then that data must be crunched to see where your best bets should be. That's not practical. The components of Dice Hierarchy are not represented in LLN either.

    Because of Dice Property knowledge, an observer can instantly determine by seeing or just hearing what the stick calls out. Then the number array, axis and if forgiving or non forgiving in the blink of an eye is learned and do so with anywhere from 67 to 75% accuracy. Many times it's possible to have even higher correctness. No math formula, crystal ball, or soothsayer can match this.

    This is not my opinion. Just quoting Dice Facts! An outcome is not just the study of the Y axis where dice properties and dice mechanics have not been observed.
     
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  12. Liman

    Liman Member

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    I have no clue what you mean the two of you....its a nonsense post.

    and what should I try?

    some mathematics jibber jabber bullshit.....someone states Im a expert on this or that, and now hes invented a way to outwit or outsmart a billion dollar casino at its own game?
    first, if this was remotely true, any person fessing up to this would be a total fucking moron. A moron of epic levels.
    second, if this was remotely true, possible, whatever, trust me, the casinos would have had him on their payroll long before he found some craps board to spew this voodoo crystal ball shit.

    if you got something, just go use it......why on earth does anyone need to prove they have something here on a craps board.

    that in itself is a big joke, and for those that don't see that or understand why, theres nothing I can do to explain it to you.

    dice don't speak, they are not telling you what to bet, you may think that, but you are only fooling yourself.
     
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  13. Liman

    Liman Member

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    better yet, maybe you should try it, go study linaways theories or methods for years, then go back home and you can play at decent casinos, not places like railroad pass, lay 20 grand for buy in, since places like venetian, Bellagio, this is just another Saturday night bigwig from LA buying in, they wont even notice you......keep winning by reading the dice, you can laugh all the way to the bank.

    afterall, every and anything posted here that claims it gives an edge don't mean dog doo if in the real world you cant make money with it......so if anyone believes this stuff, just go do it and why give a rats ass what me or anyone else cares about.

    withdraw your 401 K. suck up the taxes, big deal, go play any color chip you want and you should be set for 20 lifetimes.
     
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  14. Liman

    Liman Member

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    that's how easy it is if anything posted here works........THAT IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE


    just go do it.
     
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  15. Mssthis1, Sep 20, 2017

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    Let just agree to disagree on this one as both theory's have merit and can be used to develop betting strategies that will work.

    I feel bankroll is the most misunderstood thing in craps and the casinos biggest advantage. You could have that mythical SRR of 28 and still go broke if your bankroll is only $100 and you come out of the gate betting $90 across like the majority of people seem to do. lol.
     
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  16. twodicebilly, Sep 20, 2017

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    Missthis1

    When your practicing sets at home or shots your not trying to prove some scientific
    theory or set a standard for every craps player in the world to use. This gets
    back to the idea some misguided people have about proving an edge in craps.

    None of this matters, what matters is that you leave the casino with their money. I
    don't care how you do it.

    What Linaway and I are talking about is small changes you can make at the table.
    I shoot inline most of the time so I like a set at home which is 35 36. I like the
    number distribution I get. But I can also get 6/1 more than I like, and the 6 is normally
    the front die. By understanding what I and Linaway talked about I can replace the
    position of that front 6 in the set without changing the x axis.

    Many times that has worked and I had a nice night, sometimes it does not work.

    In the end who cares...if Linaway and I think this works it is no skin off your
    nose.. we did not ask you to do it, we sure as hell did not ask Lone to do it, I
    looked around my office, I don't see any books I have written and tried to sell
    anyone saying you should do it.

    This is an open forum, linaway and I live a 10 hours drive away from each other
    so we like to talk about it here....this is what we like ... you don't agree, great

    twodicebilly
     
    #16
  17. KokomoJoe4, Sep 20, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Prop,

    You need to know what "this shit" is before you ridicule it.

    Now, if you are ridiculing a "claim" that the dice will show you what is coming next, I would agree with you. No such claim is being made with dice speak. Intelligent and even not so intelligent people know that there is NO way to know what is coming next.

    Knowing what the dice show informs you only whether the outcome is seven heavy or seven light. There is no avoiding the seven, the best you can hope for are outcomes where possible sevens are minimized. If your personal shooting habits get into regular seven light outcomes, you will likely (but not definitely) show better results than Joe Blow.

    More recent developments with Linaway's material, of which I am familiar, show relationships between various seven heavy and seven minimized outcomes. While this is interesting stuff, it has no predictive capability.

    There is no way to know what is coming next.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 20, 2017
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  18. Mssthis1, Sep 20, 2017

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    Hi twodice. I was just talking about the large number theory. I understand and use what you guys are doing for my own play.
     
    #18
  19. tabletop123, Sep 20, 2017

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    I have come to find that MOST hands that extend beyond probability have a propensity to fall into the Group 2 category!

    Very rarely have I ( myself) tossed long hands wherein the outcomes were in a higher Group 1 ratio ( although anything's possible).
    Linaway's material is just the facts of how dice tosses are performing. No hocus pocus, Crystal ball, or advantage type stuff!

    No one knows what the next toss will be, & the ONLY way to consistently beat the game of craps ( Theoretically) is to have SOME measure of influence over the dice, along with a strong betting system to magnify your influence.

    Now, when ya get into the influence thingy.....THAT'S when things tend to get a little bit sketchy.
     
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  20. Linaway, Sep 20, 2017

    Linaway

    Linaway Member

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    Well TT, I will have to disagree with you and Koko when it comes to EV. There are specific components of Dice Hierarchy that you both know about. Hey, you can't snipe a number but you can predict with a high percentage of it's likelihood, it's residency and all the other component lingo.

    TT, I appreciate your coming to bat for my works but you still don't have the rest of the story. Koko does. Knowing your probability skew rate also helps you in making betting decisions. Things we cannot identify for it's privileged information. Thank you both for keeping it that way.

    Next time you see a dice outcome, in the blink of your eye, you can read the dice and you instantly know this outcome was an expected value based on what you see. So, I say yes to the intent of my thread. You can predict several components of Dice Hierarchy which also are influenced by your probable skew rate.

    I gotta get out of here. I was told today we will be going to the local joint and gonna whack their whizzers. Last 3 trips they could not beat us. We'll see if our dice knowledge will still prevail.
     
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