Due Theory

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by badddoin, Feb 25, 2018.

1. basicstrategy777, Mar 2, 2018

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I don't understand........everybody knows, if a 7 hasn't been rolled in a while, it's DUE.

If people say it's not DUE, they haven't played craps a long time. Every hand I've witnessed has always ended up with a 7 out.

Is it more correct to say a 7 is not Due ? .......is this what your lyin' eyes tell you.....is this your experience. ....have you ever seen a hand that has not 7'd out ?.........would you bet your life on a 7 not showing and stand in front of a firing squad saying, as the dice are being rolled, ..........." I know I'm right, I know I'm right, ...the math says the 7 is never due....the math says the 7 is never due."...........BANG!!!!!.....another dead math guy.

777

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2. James Hall, Mar 2, 2018

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3. Mssthis1, Mar 2, 2018

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Casinos and snake oil salesmen for gambling widgets make a good living off of people not understanding how probability including due theory work in real life.

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4. random_roller, Mar 2, 2018

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I was the only player at a table. Made the point and decided I had played long enough. I also wanted to beat the rush to the cashier window, as the casino was going to close shortly. So I proceeded to color up. No 7 out to end that game.

But under ordinary circumstances, you are correct. The roll almost always ends with a 7 out.

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5. TDVegas, Mar 2, 2018

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I see a hands that end with the point being made and the bubbler cashes out. I assume he is either a dark side player or he's late for his flight.

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6. basicstrategy777, Mar 2, 2018

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You did not fulfill the definition of a hand .....it's in my book, chapter 12..." Glossary...Jargon...Terms....Lingo. "

777

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7. von duck, Mar 2, 2018

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What can I do to make amends? You caught in the "heat of battle". Nothing personal, I was just lookin for something to bite at. You know how it is.

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8. von duck, Mar 2, 2018

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But still, no math to dispute.

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9. von duck, Mar 2, 2018

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For you, that would be "topics.

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10. basicstrategy777, Mar 2, 2018

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An act of contrition is a good start, however, the scales have been tipped and must be righted ; I will let you know the proper pennance when I think of something worthy.....In the mean time, you are forgiven.

777

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11. Mssthis1, Mar 2, 2018

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One of the strangest ones I had was at Bally's Las Vegas. Guy one shooter ahead of me made a point, maybe two and then he set a point of 9. He must not of liked 9's because he decided to pick up his bet and walk. The pit was oblivious. They didn't notice until he was lost in the crowd. I got the dice and I believe that was the last roll I've had that was over 40 rolls without a 7. Tossed 43 with no 7's and no 9's.

The whole table passed the dice back to me and the next roll was a PSO, color coming in. lol.

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12. von duck, Mar 2, 2018

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Horseshit! It doesn't matter, because all we want to know is the probability of 40 rolls no 7. Any given example might vary, that's deviation. You want to dodge this issue now, don't you. Probability requires NO particular sample size, and I'm pretty sure you know that. So, just for fun, address post number 40 in this thread. That should be easy enough to do. Humor the boys.

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13. von duck, Mar 2, 2018

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Thank you MR 777, sorry to catch you in the crossfire. When it comes to the numbers, don't bet against the Duck, I am undefeated, so far. This is not to say I'm unbeatable, just not YET, and I've taken on, the GUNS.

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14. Edward-ky, Mar 2, 2018

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I tinker around with ladder logic some. I do a lot of plc installs i just dont write the program.

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15. Edward-ky, Mar 2, 2018

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I have seen a hand that did not 7 out. I hit them all once then hit the point colored up and left. Not one 7 rolled. I wanted 1 hand that wasnt a 7 out. I was the only one at thetable like 3 in the morning.

#75
16. Mssthis1, Mar 2, 2018

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I buy surplus hardware and resale it. I need a small program and test stand to test individual inputs on legacy Rockwell plc hardware, 1771-IL and 1771-IXE but I'm long on work and short on time.

Want to get to where I can install newer firmware on SLC 500 Ethernet plc's also. Have the laptop with programming software and the OS501 C 11 firmware disk but, once again time is a limiting factor.

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17. Edward-ky, Mar 2, 2018

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Arent the slc 500 pretty much obsolete. I use to install those but now using compac logix mostly. Another company is the ones who build and program. I pretyy much just install and configure. I just configure through the panel view so dont need laptop. Like you i dont have the time to tinker with some of the stuff i would like to. Rockwell stuff is just so damn expensive to do almost as a hobby though.

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18. von duck, Mar 2, 2018

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Well now, let's review what has happened, and bring everybody up to speed, on the current state of affairs.
Ok, so Duck finds a seeming math anomaly in mssthis1's dice data, that has been run through the mill at win-craps. Duck then alludes to how he achieved, the proper theoretical value. Duck then hypothesized, several possible reasons, for the discrepancy, one of which set off alarms, and raised "red" flags. Suddenly there appears a poster named "Steen" who has not been seen in a "coons" age, whatever that is. Steen immediately "sees" an error, right off the top of his head. "Whoa, this can't be right" (sic)
Steen then comes on board, blowing tons of smoke, and posting all kinds of technical looking graphic stuff, and using words nobody understands, probably not even him, and trying to sound real damned knowledgeable.
Duck then replies, and indicates, very tactfully, that steen is full of shit. At which time Random Roller jumps into the fray, and tries to blindside duck, with a swipe at ducks balls. Duck, being agile, as he is, deflects RRs groin shot, and challenges RR, to put up, or shut the f'ck up. Rather than put up, RR presents Steen, with a world class head-job, indicating that they have probably known each other carnally, for some time.
Duck then challenges all comers with post number 40 in this thread, at which time everybody went running for cover, flinging stinky turds over their shoulder as they ran. The challenge still stand, unscathed.
A footnote to this battle, BS777, an almost innocent bystander, took a bullet to the ass, while trying to "book" action against duck, in this battle. His lacerated buttock will heal, get well soon BS777. Post number 40 contains the challenge, anybody?

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19. Mssthis1, Mar 2, 2018

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Is there some mis interpreting of info going on here? How can you get over 27000 sequences 4 rolls or more out of 57549 tosses of the dice? That sample is now at 57987 individual rolls of the dice with a seven in 3 tosses or less at 4002 and 4 tosses or more at 9577.

It wasn't 57549 shooting attempts. It's 57549 individual tosses.

#79
20. von duck, Mar 2, 2018

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