Due theory, influence and math

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by KokomoJoe4, Jan 29, 2015.

  1. goatcabin, Jan 30, 2015

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Just be aware that every one of those come bets carries with it an expected loss, whereas your odds bets do not. The less money you subject to the house edge, the less your expected loss. If you can find 10x odds, a pass bet in the same amount you are making all those come bets, with 10x odds, will minimize your expected loss with still plenty of variance. I understand it's not as exciting, however. Many people want to get all the point numbers covered, and the more impatient ones do it with place/buy bets, so they don't even have to wait for come bets to go through the comeout.
     
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  2. Bases loaded, Jan 30, 2015

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

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    Gotcha, Alan.

    In my early days at the Barbary Coast (nee Bill's gambling Hall, nee Cromwell) the table minimum was $2 with 10X odds. Those were the 'glory days'. They let you take $50 odds on a $2 bet on 6 or 8 to make the dealers chip handling easier. Caught a few monsters there back in the day.
     
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  3. Liman

    Liman Member

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    after grinding out hours and hours at craps tables, I walked into Barbary coast one night, I believe the Keno lounge was right near the front door entrance off of the strip, and I won something like 15 out of 20 games, winning around 900 bucks.(I always played a way ticket, 3 groups of 3's, 3 groups of 6, and one group of 9), 3.50 or 7.00 bucks a ticket.
    It was my relaxation time, Id sit and have a few drinks and watch the numbers pop.(maybe that's why I like bubble craps)
    My wife enjoyed playing at Nob Hill , that tiny casino, I think it was next door to Barbary, or close by.
    I think nob hill had a 25 cent craps table, although I don't remember clearly.
    Slots/fun was where I learned to play on a 25 cent table, and across the street at silver city, another 25 cent table.
     
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  4. basicstrategy777, Jan 30, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    One of my traditions is to start my casino day at Keno...the worst game in the house.

    I will play a quick pick for the jackpot and a ways ticket exactly as you discribe.

    I use to tell the attendent to give me a ticket showing the number of times each number showed for the last 50 games and would bet the numbers that showed the most.

    Only played those 2 tickets. Sometimes it would bankroll my craps play.

    777
     
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  5. goatcabin, Jan 30, 2015

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    But, wait, those numbers were not "due"; other numbers were due, since they hadn't been showing, right? >:)
     
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  6. betwthelines, Jan 30, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    Human beings are "hard wired" to see patterns in random events...that is to say it is instinctual...This is indeed a false perception but presumably had -or has- survival value. Or so the theory goes...tom p
     
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  7. basicstrategy777, Jan 31, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    You are right again.......however, I did say I'm a streak player first.

    You could use the numbers as a Streak player or Due player........depends on how you feel that day.

    The table is like a woman....she changes her mood for no good reason....you need to be atuned to her as 'she' is trying to speak to you. You need to act/bet according to what she is saying. 20 minutes of winning can make up 2 hours of losing.....but you have to listen and bet accordingly.

    IMHO, you need to infuse some Art into your game and let this clinical, math, random stuff take alittle more of a back seat....IMHO.

    777
     
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  8. Bases loaded, Jan 31, 2015

    Bases loaded

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    Streaks is the only way you end up winner when gambling. Avoid the cold streaks, ride the hot streaks. The coin toss is not HTHTHTHTHT, it is HHHHTTTTTHHTTHTHT. Be on H when it runs, be on T when it turns.
     
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  9. Onautopilot, Jan 31, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    HTHTHTHTHTHT, is just as likely as any other sequence. If you flip a coin 10 times, there are 1,024 different possible sequences, all of which are equally probable outcomes. We make our bets, and hope the unfolding sequence favors our bet selection, and over time, it usually favors that selection much as the odds of it occurring indicate it should. I have spent more time than any sane person would, trying to find some "hiccup" in that truth, or some way to exploit that truth with some betting scheme. I will always say that I have never found one...even if I have. :)
     
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  10. goatcabin, Jan 31, 2015

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    So, let me get this straight. Whether numbers are "due" because they haven't rolled, or because they HAVE rolled, depends on you you feel? Is this the kind of stuff you put in your book?

    Sorry, but this is not only sexist, but voodoo bullshit.

    That is not "art".
     
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  11. Bases loaded, Jan 31, 2015

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

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    So you're saying 'Heads' ?
     
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  12. Bases loaded, Jan 31, 2015

    Bases loaded

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    All I care about is getting as much odds up as I can afford. That is a coin flip, the best I can hope for in the casino.
     
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  13. KokomoJoe4, Jan 31, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    This is what makes craps such an interesting game. We all have our own ideas and experiences.

    There are days when we can do little right, and fortunately other days where nearly everything we do is correct. Usually, it's somewhere in the middle, and giving away too much edge to the house beats us down.

    I prefer the DO, where we win more risking less. The however here is that these bets typically lose more frequently than they win. Hence, my usually boring play of one at a time, with aggressive progression if/when ahead by three or so greens.

    On the pretty rare occasions when your numbers are coming back multiple times in a row, a table limit sized bet is what you are looking to arrive at. Playing pass or come in this manner also provides the opportunity to parlay one these large come outs with natural winners.
     
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  14. Bases loaded, Jan 31, 2015

    Bases loaded

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    If you ask me to pick the outcomes of the next 10 coin tosses, I am going to either say 'HHHHHHHHHH' or 'TTTTTTTTTT'. Any other guess reduces your odds. But if I say 'HTHTHTHTHT' I may be 100% right, or 100% wrong or some other crazy percentage. So its 'Tails', right?
     
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  15. Onautopilot, Jan 31, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    Maybe look at it in simpler fashion.......3 flips, possible out comes....HHH, HTT, HHT HTH, TTT, THH, TTH, THT. Any of those sequences are equally likely to happen! No one sequence is favored over any other sequence. The odds of picking a "right" sequence is 1:8. You can be %100 right or 100% wrong, or somewhere in between. But you will not know until after the fact. It's hard to dispute probability / expectation. Pick any one of those sequences, and, your expectation on any one of them is to break even.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 31, 2015
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  16. Bases loaded, Jan 31, 2015

    Bases loaded

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    Gotcha, Onautopilot.
     
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  17. Onautopilot, Jan 31, 2015

    Onautopilot

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  18. The Comeback Kid, Jan 31, 2015

    The Comeback Kid

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    Wow, I almost fell off my chair.
    Thoughts of firing off a "feeling based, voodoo" response have receded now because, what's the use. I'm OK now. Equanimity returned. Breathing normally.

    I'll keep my own council and say, "why that's an interesting "depression era" opinion your've got there Professor Goatcabin. Good luck with it.
    Cheers,

    For the others...guess I just can't stop the feeling... thoughts.jpg
     
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  19. Onautopilot, Jan 31, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    A nice quote for approaching life in general, but I for one, do not think that the "Law of Attraction" scares the casinos much. In fact, I think it might favor them more than the player. :)
     
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  20. basicstrategy777, Jan 31, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    When you get the keno slip that tells you how many times each of the 80 numbers have appeared in the last 50 games...you look at them and if you want to go with the streak you bet the 9 numbers that have appeared the most...if you want to go with Due, you bet the 9 numbers that have appears the least.I will bet one of the 2 ways depending on how I feel that day. And chapter 9 of my book deals with strategies.....the last one, number 19 says..."Use your ESP" . I have had very good feedback from those that have bought the book. They told me they like it.


    I'm sorry I offended you when I said ' a table is like a woman" ; it is not uncommon to call your car, your boat, your rifle, a she. Most people would not take that to be offensive. As far as what I said being voodoo bullshit...that's your opinion, and what if it is voodoo. What's wrong with voodoo ? And you calling it bullshit , I'm sure , has offended many voodoo priests.

    As far as Art goes......Whatever in your play is not based upon math, is the Art side of the game. In a random game, when anything can happen, the math won't help you....you need something else......VOODOO.

    777
     
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