Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by obie1, Aug 4, 2013.

1. von duck, Sep 4, 2017

von duck Member

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I also have seen them. I knew it wasn't just my imagination. .

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2. six shooter, Sep 4, 2017

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2db...If you chart mark your 7's with 1 next to the 7 for a 6/1, 2 for a 5/2 and 3 for the 4/3. We only track this when we suspect mis manufactured dice.

KKJ4....Most people believe we have a martingale system, we have stronger indicators when you have an opportunity to bet more period. However, has anyone thought we could be regressing at times or even under certain table conditions take one hit and down. Do you know if you place the inside for \$44, it would take you till the fifth hit to exceed the money you would make on your first roll.

The Key to making money is YOUR BETTING STRATEGY.

One Hit and Down

Assume you bet inside numbers 5,6,8 and 9 for \$44.

Win - Profits with win - Profit if 7 Occurs

1 - \$14 - Loss \$30

2 - \$28 - Loss \$16

3 - \$42 - Loss \$2

4 - \$56 - Profit \$12

5 - \$70 - Profit \$26

You finally surpassed your original profit of \$14 on the 5th hit. How many rolls have 5 inside box number hits?

#1562
Last edited: Sep 4, 2017

3. obie1 Member

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Well, well, well...

Congratulations to PBS...!!!

They recently televised a special presentation titled:

"The Great Math Mystery"...

Which clearly demonstrates how there is order in mathematics in what was previously considered by most people as random events.

This is exactly what we have espoused to,... and: been teaching with our betting Strategy for the past 7 years.

Congratulation to; Max Tegmark (MIT, professor of Physics), and Mario Livio, astrophysicist and author of "Is God a Mathematician"... in their presentation.

To view "The Great Math Mystery" go to "You Tube" ... or "PBS.Org."

Learn "The Strategy" ...and learn how to win at the craps table.

Best wishes to all,

Obie1

#1563
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4. KokomoJoe4, Apr 5, 2018

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Obie,

Do not forget Max Planck and Erwin SchrÃ¶dinger.

#1564
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5. twodicebilly, Apr 5, 2018

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Sixshooter

I agree, most rolls do not allow for a betting across system to come out in the plus.
The only system that works for me ( leaving out the option of thinking that out of
a limited number of hands your going to have one outstanding roll) is the idea of
making large bets for one hit and then regress in some way or another. There is no way
in the normal course of playing that i have a PSO every 6 Or 7 rolls.. it does not happen.

But i believe you guys have something in the form of betting that works...there is no
reason you cant have..I know I sure as hell don't have one.

tdb

#1565
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6. lone irish digit, Apr 5, 2018

lone irish digit Member

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This is Barney,

The greatest Mr Opie glad you are still around and making the big monies for the casino chickeys but I have some very badest news for you. All of the greatest player of the craps on forum are now playing with Mr math's system. They now have B. O. and soon will be winners. The LID has the BO at casino and only gives Mr math one penny for every dollar he wins at the craps. What's even better when he wins more than a dollar he doesn't tell Mr math and the LID keeps all the winnings. What a deal. So no matter how much you sell strategy on forum Mr math and his BO got you beat.

Thank you very much

#1566
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7. six shooter, Apr 5, 2018

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LID.....I have been keeping up with his post. One thing I would encourage him to do, is put on a live demo like Lou and I did and show every person it works. We used a random number generator live and Lou still beat them by demonstrating "The Strategy". That is why Lou wins at 98.3% of his craps sessions. However, it appears we fall short of the 100% guarantee of the ladder.

#1567
8. Mssthis1, Apr 5, 2018

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Have you ever tried the strategy on bubble machines?

#1568
9. six shooter, Apr 5, 2018

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Yes. It works, some hands you just have to sit out because 25 seconds is just not enough time if you need to make multiple bets. It's not like throwing your money down and telling the dealer what you want and it's a bet. We have a couple guys who use it quite a bit on bubble craps. I personally like the tables myself.

#1569
10. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 5, 2018

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An interesting program, and I thank you for bringing it to my attention. It may well be, in fact I will go further and state that IMHO it probably is, that dice rolls on a casino craps table can be mathematically described and therefore predicted. What I have trouble believing is that past dice rolls are part of the equation(s). Rather I believe that if it is possible, the parameters necessary to calculate the vector the dice must describe, including actions by other players and the dealers, change from one roll to the next and would therefore have to be noted prior to each toss. I'm thinking this creates a Heisenberg Situation -- don't know if that's an accepted phrase -- where taking a measurement affects what is being measured, which would render the calculations irrelevant to the toss about to be made.

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11. Mssthis1, Apr 5, 2018

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SO far I have been having reasonable success keeping a + - count on sevens and using due theory to slowly adjust my bet sizes up or down depending on how far the sevens stray into the + or - area. The sample is still small, approx 3200 tosses, but the sevens have never strayed over + or - 20 from the mean SO FAR. Currently at -8 so I have seen 8 fewer sevens than expected over the past 3200 tosses.

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12. Settingcanthurt, Apr 5, 2018

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Whats that??

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13. Mssthis1, Apr 5, 2018

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That everything will return to the mean eventually, or I haven't seen such and such in so many rolls so it's "due". Since I have seen fewer than expected sevens recently more sevens than expected will show up eventually. Because of that my bets are currently small.

Don't bet the farm on due theory though. It often takes hundreds of rolls to pan out even on the most common number the seven. I adapted similar to using a 10 count in blackjack to adjust bet sizes.

#1573
14. TDVegas, Apr 5, 2018

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So you've seen 525 - 7's...expected 533. It's amazing how the expectation of all the numbers pretty much sticks to....well...expectation...Especially as you stretch out the roll data.

So...after not seeing a 7 after 20 rolls (or thereabout)---your idea is to pull everything down or regress?

But until then...stick to the plan of leaving bets up or not regressing?

#1574
15. von duck, Apr 5, 2018

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It's the theory that you will find water droplets on your grass in the morning.

#1575
16. Settingcanthurt, Apr 5, 2018

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Heck I always thought past performance has nothing to do with future expectations Due to the randomness caused by the design in the physical features/factors of the dice, table, shooter. That's the Due theory I rely on.
Not like a finite number of cards or factored/calculated payouts regulated to some machine.

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17. Mssthis1, Apr 5, 2018

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I have been playing 3 units, 2 hits/ regress to 1 unit and then press pretty much exclusively for the past 6 months or so. Since the sevens are so close to the mean recently, I'm betting my minimum 3 unit bet and pressing less aggressively at the present. When the sevens get back in the + column, preferably +15 or more, I'll increase my base bet and press more aggressively.

That doesn't guarantee anything. The dice can stay illogical longer than you can stay liquid if they choose to do so.

Looking back at all the past sessions that I've charted, the vast majority of the time the good or bad sessions hinge more on how many sevens were comeout sevens than any other metric. Since that is past history I'm still on the fence on how to use that data for future rolls. Maybe after several thousand more rolls I may feel that I can open up my betting a little when comeout sevens fall behind what is expected.

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18. Mssthis1, Apr 5, 2018

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Seven is the most common number so it strays the least from the mean. That is why I hinge my play on that number. The hardest numbers to roll like any hardway can stray far away from their mean for many thousands of rolls. That's why I never bet them. Just because you haven't seen a hard six in 200 rolls doesn't necessarily mean it is due.

I wouldn't recommend anyone play the way I do unless you have a ton of patience and a good bankroll. I'm surviving with a 10K bankroll and starting out with \$96 across regressing to \$32 across. I was hoping to grind out an average of \$100 an hour and that doesn't look very likely unless I catch a monster roll like the 78 roll hand that I missed out on by 20 minutes a couple weeks ago.

Timing, timing, timing is the key to an individual session and my timing has been off lately. I've missed several big rolls on the bubble by being a half hour late to the party......................

I don't play the live table locally any more because the game sucks. The better rules on the bubble more than offset any perceived advantage I may have on the live tables here.

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19. FredP Member

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"Heisenberg may have been here". Science joke if you're not familiar with the Heisenberg uncertainty principal.
One of my favorites.

#1579
20. von duck, Apr 5, 2018

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