Dam Stinking Math!

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by tabletop123, Jan 16, 2016.

  1. tabletop123, Jan 16, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    7,564
    Likes Received:
    5,531
    Yes, we all hope for that "Hiccup" wherein the Math temporarily goes on Vacation, & miracles seem to be the flavor of the moment.

    Hardways hitting with regularity, shooters consistently getting past ten rolls of the dice. Tens, & fours hitting like its raining.

    However, one thing that is undeniable. The more the dice are tossed, the closer the numbers will revert to 1:6. Maybe this is why the Gurus teach to play short sessions.

    Hoping the math doesnt prevail over a short period. Is it called Positive Short Term Variance?

    At any rate, the more that i ponder things, the more i lean towards TRYING to capitalize on the first 3-4 rolls after the point is established.

    Sure the seven appears roughly 1:6, at any given time, but somehow i respect that 1:6 a lot less after the sixth roll.

    Some call it the Rate of Decay of a hand as it extends past six rolls. I Simply call it THE MATH!
     
    #1
  2. Bases loaded, Jan 16, 2016

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,873
    Likes Received:
    1,709
    I'm the guy TD warns about - Action Jackson.

    When a box number hits and I'm not on it I hate it.
     
    #2
    tabletop123 likes this.
  3. TDVegas, Jan 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,045
    Likes Received:
    10,977
    If you're loading the numbers up with come bets..you're ok.
    If you add odds, even better.

    You're prone to high volatility and short term variance, but the house edge is still under 1%.

    My gripe is more against those that load the bases after come out.
     
    #3
  4. Bases loaded, Jan 16, 2016

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,873
    Likes Received:
    1,709
    Right, accross betting is hazardous to your bankroll. I introduce my money thru the COME, let the dice lead me to victory.
     
    #4
  5. TDVegas, Jan 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,045
    Likes Received:
    10,977
    Yeah, you're good. You at least have some protection against short rolls.
     
    #5
  6. Bases loaded, Jan 16, 2016

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,873
    Likes Received:
    1,709
    Strange that the COME area is so large. The casino usually hides the better bets - the DON'T PASS and DON'T COME areas are tiny. The PASS LINE is narrow. The FIELD and the PROP AREA are gigantic.

    The COME area gets little use from my experience.
     
    #6
  7. Bases loaded, Jan 16, 2016

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,873
    Likes Received:
    1,709
    Where's BetweenTheLines? He always clarifies this stuff.
     
    #7
  8. TDVegas, Jan 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,045
    Likes Received:
    10,977
    Come bet is a good bet...unless, like yesterday where 2,3,12's were coming up like mad.
     
    #8
  9. basicstrategy777, Jan 16, 2016

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,345
    Likes Received:
    8,596
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    That's what the field is for.

    777
     
    #9
  10. tabletop123, Jan 16, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    7,564
    Likes Received:
    5,531
    Lets we forget the horn bets, as well!
     
    #10
  11. Dave G Ct, Jan 16, 2016

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2015
    Messages:
    7,205
    Likes Received:
    984
    Gender:
    Male
    The only good thing I can say about a come bet is that it serves as a hedge against a PSO.After a point is made those come bets give back too much on a Co 7.
     
    #11
  12. TDVegas, Jan 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,045
    Likes Received:
    10,977
    Play the game regularly and you'll soon see how a come bet is better than any of your 4-5-6-8-9-10 buys....

    All the more when you add odds.
     
    #12
  13. tabletop123, Jan 16, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    7,564
    Likes Received:
    5,531
    I agree with that statement. However, if youre only doing one come bet along with your passline bet, its not horrible. The continuous Come bets after every roll is what can really get you buried! I guess the old saying is true: Everything in moderation.
     
    #13
  14. tabletop123, Jan 16, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    7,564
    Likes Received:
    5,531
    I disagree! More odds equal more volatility. Same thing when placing more than one bet. The way Onautopilot explains it: Every bet you make , youre playing an additional game against the house.

    Not gonna argue that point. Especially from a forty plus year player. Both sides of the rail, too!
     
    #14
  15. Dave G Ct, Jan 16, 2016

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2015
    Messages:
    7,205
    Likes Received:
    984
    Gender:
    Male
    Tabletop you are right. TD has a different philosophy.
     
    #15
  16. tabletop123, Jan 16, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    7,564
    Likes Received:
    5,531
    I simply disagree about the odds portion of the passline bet. Why the hell would i want to take as much odds as my bankroll allows when the point is....... let say a four? According to the math, i'm at a 33% dissdvantage when the point is four. Seems smarter to leave the passline bet naked, when its a four.

    Dam the 2:1 payout. Youve got to hit the point first, & aint NOBODY hitting tens, & fours with any regularity. NOT EVEN YOU, SUPER DAVE!
     
    #16
  17. Dave G Ct, Jan 16, 2016

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2015
    Messages:
    7,205
    Likes Received:
    984
    Gender:
    Male
    Tabletop
    At least place single odds on the 4&10.
     
    #17
  18. TDVegas, Jan 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,045
    Likes Received:
    10,977
    It's the only fair bet in the casino. Are you there to play or not?

    I'll take 1 come bet $5 with odds $5, or 2 come bet with odds, or 3 come bets with odds (total at risk $30) over your $10 place 4-5-10 or any other $30 bet you would like to make...6-8-9. Whatever you wish.

    My bet is a better bet using the ONLY benchmark available for what is a better bet. The math.

    How do you want to argue which play is "better"? My opinion is better than your opinion? Everything is dependent on amount waged on the table being equal on your play or mine.
     
    #18
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2016
  19. Dave G Ct, Jan 16, 2016

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2015
    Messages:
    7,205
    Likes Received:
    984
    Gender:
    Male
    Yes TD you have a low HA but a Come bet does not enjoy the benefits on the CO roll. Roll a 7 on a come bet - yes a win for the cone bet but your bets lose. There is no string of 7' S like you may have on a CO roll.Maybe it does not affect its HA but there is the hidden cost to your bank roll. Plus they lose on the second point CO.Too many negatives.
     
    #19
  20. TDVegas, Jan 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,045
    Likes Received:
    10,977
    You have no clue what you talking about Dave.

    The math doesn't change. Your mumbo jumbo talk has nothing to do with the reality of the play. You've been told this before about the math and admitted you are not versed in it...then you try and argue which play is better than that play.

    There's only 1 way to argue which is "better"......math, math, math. The math determines which is a better play. Everything else is just an opinion...like "my wife is better looking than your wife". Subjective. No benchmark. Capish?
     
    #20