Pushing this old thread of mine back to the top hoping to show those interested that in fact the "math" of the game defines it as negative, with some bets definitely "better" than others. One thing that perhaps is not obvious about the'Table of the Game' is that the "Win probability with number rolled vs, Seven out" (Column 2) defines statistics that apply only during the come out roll, so that Craps numbers give zero win probability and Naturals are guaranteed winners. This is corrected for in column 3, the probability that a number is rolled. This probability, and the way it relates to the same probability for the seven, defines the odds of the numbers in the game. Now think about this. A naked pass or come bet, without odds is 49.3% likely to win. Logically, these bets are 50.7% likely to lose. Because with place bets there is no opportunity for a come out winner, percentages are: 3 out of 9 = 33.3% likely winner on the outsides, 66.7% loser 4 out of 10 = 40.0% likely winner on the odds, 60.0% loser, and 5 out of 11 = 45.5% likely winner on the insides, 54.5% loser. All such wagers are significantly worse than the contracts, mathematically speaking. Their benefit involves the non-contracted nature of the bet. I am not much of a place bettor. To those who are: is the benefit worth the mathematical disadvantage?
Call it what you will...a pass +2 come bets gives me opportunity to weather a bunch of early 7 outs and hope it turns. The place bettor doesn't get that chance. He's burned the wad....or at the very least is deep in the hole. I have no issue with either play....just pointing out where it helps and hurts.
This is basically my conservative go to game. But instead of opting for odds on the pass and come bets, I usually just go for parlays on first wins. Using a very conservative negative progression, one needs just a little luck to enjoy a nice winning percentage for multiple play sessions. Of course the win goal is rather small compared to bankroll commitment, but I enjoy winning sessions.
You're decimals are in the wrong place but that's OK, we know what you meant. ( If it was me, those math types would rip me a new one, starting with mid-nite ). QUIZ:..... The odds of winning on the PL is .492929 ; since the odds for successfully making a pass are slightly less than even, it logically follows that the odds for not making a pass are slightly better than even. i.e. .507070 Casino's cannot offer a bet that mathematically favors the player. .507070 favors the player playing this side. How can this be ? 777
The decimals were ok, the numbers were the PL wins & loses for 100 come outs, trying to show TD , that it is the difference between the two that make the about 1.4 % disadvantage.
Yea, them Hindus and Arabs were fairly smart critters....then they Greeks came along and gave the stuff "names".
A good Q that we know you know the answer to 777. You wrote THE book on the game. OK, maybe not THE book, but certainly a very good book. Answer: The 50.7% player advantage playing the Don't result occurs only in our minds, not at the table. IF the house paid us on the DP and DC when we see come out , then the game WOULD be at our advantage. Since by the rules of the game they do not pay us but call it a push, the Don't bettor is screwed out of 1/2 of 1/36 = 1/72 advantage, so this 1/72 becomes - 1/72, which unfortunately equals -1.39% or -1.4%. So subtracting this out of the 50.7, we get 49.3% advanatge.
Excellent Koko...excellent. If I were the gold star dispenser I would dispense TWO to you. The push is the key. The Don't Pass, dispite not being paid on 25% of all craps , is the fairest bet of any in which the house has an edge. I appreciate your kind words about my book. I think it would make a wonderful Christmas present for those newer players and those that want to learn all about the game. 777
So a question then to you and B777. What if you place a box cars bet on the come out along with your DP / DC. What is your opinion on the long run. Will you come out ahead or behind on this particular play? I don't know what the math / probabilities are. Thanks
Whenever you are talking long run.....the math says you will lose. There is a reason they call it a negative expectation game. 777
