Craps... a game of skill? Nope. Video Poker is...

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by SevenOut, Dec 3, 2017.

  1. SevenOut, Dec 3, 2017

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Craps is not a Game of Skill. It will never be a Game of Skill. Craps cannot be anything close to a Game of Skill.

    - Poker. Live or Video is a Game of Skill. You must recall WHAT CARDS have been played, what you are holding and speculate as to what the other players hold for a hand. If a Jack of Spades is no longer in the deck... it cannot return until the hand is finished. Your chances and odds of winning or losing change as each card is played. It will not repeat until the deck is shuffled and a new game begins.

    Not so with Craps. You do not run out of any number, as you reset, shoot and take what comes. The odds remain the same when the dice are returned to you.

    - Video Poker. It is a Game of Skill. You must understand the payouts of various games before playing. You know that the payouts may prefer four 2's, paying more, than lets say, four Jacks.

    - Black Jack. Single Deck. A Game of Skill.

    Six, Seven or more decks in play... unless you are a savant genius... it is not much better than Craps. Rain Man was a movie made in Hollywood. It was not real.

    I watch a regular group of Dice Setters wager at a Craps Table. A progression game where they cover ALL the Numbers after point is made. Point with a flat bet and odds. If a Place Bet is hit, they press and take some change. Again, the same. Again, the same. Then Seven Out and, from my view and opinion, they hope to break even after Point is Made. After a Seven Out, they lose it all. Over and over.

    That takes no Skill. Even if they were producing good numbers setting the dice, they play a buck to five bucks on the Fire Bet and hope to make three or more points... yet their progression pressing place bets is bad strategy.

    I prefer to watch Craps Games when there are a group of players. The psychology of wagering is interesting. If you lose, just repeat what you were doing. For what purpose? Does your wagering change your chances of winning? Was it your shooting, or the current shooter to blame for outcomes not repeating often enough?

    Am I wrong? Tell me how and why. Understanding Video Poker, the game you chose, the payout schedule... a player has a better chance of winning, playing longer or lose less money.

    Play for the Number of Credits paid. Denomination is not important. If you want to make money... put it into Union Pacific Railroad stock. Otherwise... Craps is not anywhere close to a Game of Skill. It cannot be beat by memorizing past play and extrapolate it for future play as the Odds are always the same.
     
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  2. Onautopilot, Dec 3, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    The casinos seem to agree with you on all counts! But, you will have a few egocentrics on here that will dispute your proffer.....they maintain that they have mastered the "skill", regarding the age old game of bank craps.

    Some even maintain they do it without using DI....by " smart" betting. They somehow think they are smarter than anyone else, because if it did really work, there would be a lot of "smart" people cleaning the casino's clocks, and the game would be long gone.

    If the really smart people in this world have not been able to figure it out, then I don't put a lot of confidence in a few innumerates here on this forum finding that glitch in random chance! Especially when they are buying in for a $100, and still betting red chips. :)
     
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  3. $nakeEye$, Dec 4, 2017

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    SevenOut -

    YOU are a BIGGER A$$HOLE than I gave you credit for !

    YOU have NO CLUE about Craps - OR - Black Jack shoe games !

    AND - I WILL NOT Educate YOU -

    YOU are beyond redemption !

    Video Poker as a " viable " advantage game ?

    WHAT planet did YOU come from ?

    YOU and TDVegas are 2 of the biggest idiots on this forum !

    There are MANY who contest this invalid statement !

    $...eE..$
     
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  4. HornHiYo, Dec 4, 2017

    HornHiYo

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    Blackjack is a game of dependent trials. Whether playing one or multiple decks the method for tracking cards is the same; tracking multiple decks does not require any more savant genius than it takes to track the single deck because the math and mental gymnastics are the same regardless of the number of decks.

    A skilled player has a significant advantage in one deck to six deck games at a 3:2 blackjack table against either a hand shuffle or non-continuous shuffling machine. The player advantage dissipates as the number of decks increase beyond six, however, tracking eight decks keeps the house edge negligible and can be a safe, hassle free way for a skilled player to build comps and have a shot at winning. On the other hand eight decks can be quite lucrative for skilled shuffle trackers.

    Thinking about this got my adrenaline flowing. So I’m off to the casino. Good Day!
     
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    Last edited: Dec 4, 2017
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  5. Onautopilot, Dec 4, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    With right machine, pay schedule, and optimum play, coupled with bonus award points, and comps, it can be an advantage play.

    That does not mean you will always enjoy that advantage....it takes a sizable bank roll, as the game is highly volatile. And not many have the discipline to go the distance.....but it can be an advantage played game!
     
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  6. James Hall, Dec 4, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    The casino does agree on all counts because the majority of players ,
    "THE NUMERATES" / people who use casino math to play the game the casinos want them to play , play the way the casinos want them to play.

    I doubt seriously anyone on this board claims they have mastered the game ,
    not even the casinos have it mastered
    There are people playing the game who remain net positive
    because they play to win
     
    #6
  7. SevenOut, Dec 4, 2017

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Craps is not a Game of Skill.

    The odds do not change before nor after an outcome is determined. 'Thinking' is not a function of Craps action. The best option a Craps Player has is to be a System Player. Even a System does not change the Player's positive or negative expectations or improve how an outcome of a pair of dice may alter their outcomes, to offer any positive returns.

    Craps is 100% dependent on the dice outcome. Craps is dependent on any shooter to defy statistical odds of deviating from the expected outcomes versus the Seven appearing. It is pure deviation of expectations that anyone can break even or win.

    Video Poker players have options. Game payout schedules. Wagering per hand. Number of Hands per game. All need to be considered while playing. Wins are paid immediately into the Bankroll. Losses are taken immediately.

    The player of VP is no more likely to make bank, although has some decision in the process. Losing the entire Bankroll, risked on the 'Roll of the Dice', is not Video Poker. The VP player needs no personal instruction to view the various options upon a five card hand and make decisions. Wise or not.

    Video Poker players do not have an abusive, aggressive minority who profess secret powers only they can provide, at a cost.

    There are no elite celebrities among any game of chance. Only degenerates. This includes table games and the electronic games of chance. Individuals play for the entertainment and vary in the degree of skill.

    No body will move to Las Vegas and generate a steady income gambling. Having a job bringing in an income and benefits does. Taking a percentage of this income to throw at a Casino Game of choice is entertainment, not a vocation. Otherwise, Craps Tables would be full of wealthy 'investors'.

    Casinos are full of optimists.

    The losers are easily discovered. They believe that they know more than the accountants, loan sharks and do this while living in their vehicles, when the savings are gone. Unemployed and preying upon the ignorant... for one more time to win... big.
     
    #7
  8. Bases loaded, Dec 4, 2017

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

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    My system = Pass line bet with odds, continuous Come bets with odds, Load the Bases, collect winnings 'Off and On'.

    As things heat up, make 2 way 'Yo' bets.

    When things get really hot, venture out on the hard ways, also 2 ways.

    I never have to post again. I've said it all.

    Good luck, have fun!
     
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  9. SevenOut, Dec 4, 2017

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    BL... you are playing a System that works for you.

    The Off and On is protecting the flat bet minimum on the Pass Line, or a previous Come Bet on a number, for even money. The 2, 3, 12 can put a damper on the experience, at times.

    I find this, Off and On, with flat bets larger than usual at the Pass Line. The caveat is when you are over exposed with no, off and on payouts, that you lose it all with one roll, only to recover the last Come flat wager.

    Many do not know you can call ALL of your Odds on any number off on any roll. After three rolls the crew will most likely pull them down and push the odds bets to you. It is just too much work to keep track of the. I have seen this rarely, but some players do not have a 'rabbit's foot' for luck and get spooked if the shooter has only a flat bet risked on the Pass Line.

    Post as often as you can. You grammar flows and you write in complete sentences. Speaking your mind is uncommon on these Forums.
     
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    Last edited: Dec 4, 2017
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  10. Bases loaded, Dec 4, 2017

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

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    SevenOut, I enjoy your posts.

    They are long form and require careful reading.

    I'm not sure if I always glean your full intent, but I make an effort, and when I see your next post, I read it.

    I have a lot of craps experience, but until I came to this blog I didn't have much knowledge. I never gave the game much thought; didn't always know the story behind what was going on on the table. Now I enjoy the nuances so much more. When I see something at the table now it often makes me think of something I saw posted on the site.
     
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  11. tabletop123, Dec 4, 2017

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Listen, gentlemen.....after almost ten years of practicing Dice Influencing, & thousands of Casino sessions, I can tell you unequivocally that Craps is NOT a game of skill for most.

    Sure, you can play smart, & play the low house edge bets, but if they are not hitting, you are "dead in the water"!

    There ARE a handful of shooters that possess a NATURAL shooting quirk that allows them to skew probability more times than not, BUT it's NOT from practicing Dice Tossing. ( I have covered this MANY times). Its inherent. Its simply because of the "action" ( quirk) that they experience because of the way that they toss the dice.

    The ONLY thing that practicing Dice Tossing does is to make your dice LOOK better in the air, develop accuracy in hitting a spot/s, & minimzing roll out after contact with the back wall.

    The only skill involved with Craps is for those that possess a inherent shooting quirk.

    Look at it this way.....if it was possible to practice Dice Tossing to develop a certain skill level, Dice Influencers that have "put in" 10, 20, 30 years would be rich. They would be killing the Casinos. It ain't happening folks!

    Then, ya get guys like James that spew bullshit like..."with the proper training". "It only takes XYZ to get an edge!......NONSENSE!

    It is VERY hard to CONSISTENTLY skew probability. One more 6/8 per 36 rolls, or one less 7 per 36 rolls SOUNDS easy UNTIL ya try to do it CONSISTENTLY!

    We are all Dice Influencers because of the MANNER in which we toss the dice. The problem with Dice Influencers is that they don't want opposing views. Either ya believe in it, or You're a Moron, Dipshit, Asshole, etc.

    As I've stated.....ya can spend many years developing the pretiest toss that is pin point accurate, gets very little roll out after contact with the back wall, & STILL NOT be able to consistently skew probability.

    No Dice Influencer will admit this, but if they had the luxury of tossing the dice from ONLY 4 feet from the back wall.....probability would still be difficult to skew.

    It's not just the back wall that thwarts a perfectly spinning, floating toss..... Its the INITIAL table contact that starts to destroy that perfect/near perfect touchdown.

    The back wall is the final Scrambler of a influenced toss. Do i, will I still TRY to influence a Dice toss? Yep.....sure will! Why? Simply because it doesn't hurt to try!

    Influencing the dice is like a kid practicing & trying to make the NBA.
    Only a few will succeed!
     
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  12. Liman

    Liman Member

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    seven out whats up with this nonsense?

    james hall says he can win anytime he needs money to pay a bill, perhaps you need to travel to mesa and take some lessons from him in the back room of the mudville bar, or whatever its called.
     
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  13. James Hall, Dec 4, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    You said some really good things
    The people who do well with Dice influence have done the work
    The problem with practice is you can't practice anything you don't know how to do
    and no one in the word was ever born knowing how to do anything
    First you learn THEN you practice then you learn some more then you practice that
    The big problem with the whole thing is people want to spend an hour with a mentor
    and start winning , it doesn't work that way
    I have turned away many more people than I have worked with , because most won't commit
    to the TIME , EFFORT and ENERGY required
    If they will not commit to spend at least 6 hours over a six week period learning
    with practice sessions in between I won't even talk to them
    because I can't help them ,
    IF THEY WON'T SPEND THE TINE , I WON'T WASTE MINE" I can't help them
    I can't help them in one hour , it takes time , effort and energy
    and that's why so few have done well , mot because of the concept
    but rather because of the lack of commitment
    They don't want to learn , THEY WANT TO GET A PRACTICE RIG
    START CHUCKING DICE AND MAKE IT WORK
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>THAT doesn't work <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
     
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  14. James Hall, Dec 4, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    A few will make the NBA ,,,, THE ONES WHO DO THE WORK,,,,
    THE ONES WHO WILL NOT BE DENIED
     
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  15. James Hall, Dec 4, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    You say that with all the sarcasm you can muster , many have done that
    many have come to that bar and grill to learn and did learn
    and one thing I hear from them , one and all is
    I would go into a casino fairly certain I was going to lose because most times I did lose
    Now I go into a casino knowing that if I adhere to the principles I have learned I will
    win more times than not
    They now know that winning is not something that happens ,
    it is something you do , it's not an event , it's a process
    and it can be / is a learned process
     
    #15
  16. DeMango, Dec 4, 2017

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Great idea! A Go Fund Me account to send 7up to Mesa!
     
    #16
  17. James Hall, Dec 4, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Anyone who wants to come is invited
     
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  18. tabletop123, Dec 4, 2017

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    WRONG! You keep harping on Practice. It doesn't work that way, James! First you must learn proper fundamentals ( that's in any game, craft, sport). Certainly no disagreements there!

    However, after learning the fundamentals, you MUST possess NATURAL ability. What you fail to realize(mention) is that it takes more than tons of practice, & a magnificent toss in order to influence a Dice roll.

    James, you cannot DEVELOP a shooting quirk through tons of practice Either you possess this quirk or ya don't! Hence, the name "Quirk"!

    You are confusing a Quirk with developing a nice toss. You CAN develop a controlled toss, but it won't necessarily be enough to consistently skew probability.
    So......what's the definition of a controlled toss? Two dice spinning or floating as a unit, hitting a SPECIFIC spot, hitting the back wall without much rollout & staying closely cropped together.

    That is NOT considered a influenced toss. A influenced toss ( by MY definition) is a toss that skews probability. Big difference between the two.

    Sorry, but you can get proper training, practice your ass off,,& STILL NOT be able to consistently influence the dice.

    The problem with your assessment James, is that with proper instruction, & practice..... Most people will be able to influence dice. NOT SO!

    First, & foremost....ya need very fine motor skills. Secondly, you MUST possess that "glitch", "Quirk" in your toss that allows for skewing of probability.

    Case in point: you get a shooter that tosses the hard way set, & his/her left die has a propensity to flip over 65%of the time ( now, this flipping over of one die is NOT intentional, but nevertheless it is an advantage using the hardways set...ie. Shooting quirk).

    Developing a deft toss, & a influenced toss is like comparing apples to Oranges!
    Now, I won't doubt anyone's ability without seeing the end results of his/her dice toss. However, I will NEVER say that someone is influencing the dice, JUST BECAUSE it's a text book looking toss. I will say that the individual has practiced quite a bit.....but it ends there!

    Why do ya Think that ya see some people that have never practiced a day in their life tossing dice, YET they always seem to have better hands than the average shooter?

    Yep, I know.....YOU call it luck! It's not luck, James......its simply a shooting quirk that they NATURALLY possess!

    Don't believe me? Ya better talk to Rick then, because we BOTH have witnessed these so-called Random Rollers that go on good rolls just about every time that they pick up the stinking dice. I envy them, but who says life is fair? Lol
     
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  19. random_roller, Dec 4, 2017

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    Speaking of trying to make the NBA, you can't teach height. And that's why I haven't yet been seen in any SportsCenter highlights.

    Oh yeah -- there's no "I" in 'Defense', so I don't have to play any. That might also have been an issue holding back my professional basketball career.
     
    #19
  20. James Hall, Dec 4, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Never in my lifetime have I attributed ANYTHING TO LUCK simply because there is no such thing as luck
    The term quirk applied to something somebody is endeavoring to do to
    create a desired outcome seems somewhat odd to me . I would think we would be looking for something mechanical and repetitive

    You seem to be laboring under the misconception that I am suggesting that the need for
    proper fundamentals is unnecessary , quite to the contrary proper fundamentals are the cornerstone of the whole process , without that no success is possible
    I have said repeatedly
    "get with someone who had developed the skill and have them teach you

    As far as somebody that never practiced a day in their life having good tosses?
    If I saw that , "I GUARANTEE YOU I WOULD ENGAGE THEM IN CONVERSATION
    AND FIND OUT HOW AND WHY THEY HAVE THOSE RESULTS"
    If they do that on a regular basis , it is no accident
    Anybody who has a good roll every time they pick up the stinking dice are anything but random , they are doing something right every time they pick up the stinking dice

    It sounds to me like you are trying to find some way to win , it sounds like you are back and forth on DI like you want it to work but you are not quite there
    You need to find something you can make work and work on that
    Maybe Rick can help
     
    #20