Conservative play

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by Twistedwrench78, Dec 20, 2015.

  1. The Midnight Skulker, Dec 23, 2015

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Back on the rec.gambling.craps newsgroup 'redleathers' advocated picking a time to make that one big bet that would make all of the other bets you make/made insignificant, a Big Bang Strategy so to speak. Not a bad idea, actually, except he thought he had some special talent for picking when the time was right for "banging".

    Speaking of the old newsgroup many regulars there had a shoot on sight rule of engagement toward John Patrick. While I often questioned his THEORIES and METHODS (which he always capitalized) I never did discount them as utter rubbish. He called one such THEO...sorry, theory/method, which you might consider, the Sayonara Bet. As your last action before quitting a session you lay equal amounts no-4 and no-10. Whether you win both bets (on a 7) or lose one of them (on a 4 or 10, taking down the unresolved one) you're outta there.

    IIRC he pitched this T...er, theory/method as going for the gusto after a sizable win, using all of that win for the two bets, but it could also be used to try to recoup some or all of your losses. The beauty of the bet is that you can win but not lose both bets on one roll, so even if you have a sizable sum on the felt only half of it is truly at risk.

    For example, I believe you reported you were once up $75 on a $100 buy-in. Were I you (and so inclined) I would lay $50 each no-4, no-10. Ignoring the $2 vig and when it is collected I have a 50-50 chance of winning or losing $50, and even if I lose I am still packing out $23 or $25 of "house money".
     
    #21
  2. Night Attack, Dec 23, 2015

    Night Attack

    Night Attack Member

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    Dude the 4hr battle is what got you in the end, not your greed. Time at the table is your enemy.
    Next time play the 30 mins first, grab the $75, then head for the steak and eggs. Aftewards you can return and try again for another $75 or so.

    The way i see it is that if you have the patience and discipline, just keep doing exactly what you are doing as it has been working for you. Then when you build your bankroll to $1000, all you need to do is exactly the same thing only start out at a higher amount. Eg $25 pass line /single odds, place 6 and/or 8 for $30 and try your luck for 3 tosses. Then down with the place bets and single odds.
    As far as the $$ amounts use whatever increase you feel comfortable with.

    I mean you have a proven winning system, albeit for 3-4 sessions, why tamper with it? First thing i learned at blackjack was never split a wimning hand. Same applies to your winning ways. If after 3-6 mths your method shows that the slow grind has caught up with you and you are now in the negative or that it seems you are going nowhere, then you can make adjustments as you will also be a more experienced player and have witnessed a lot more. But your method requires a lot of patience and discipline and that will be the toughest part.

    Good luck and keep up the trip reports.
     
    #22
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  3. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    If you're up 75% of your buy in and don't walk away a winner. You need to reassess your win goal and try to attain it in as little time as possible.
     
    #23
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2015
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  4. Twistedwrench78, Dec 28, 2015

    Twistedwrench78

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    Well, I got chewed up and spit out by the craps table the last couple trips. Nasty strings of PSO made it impossible for me to move forward financially. I will have to start from scratch in January with another $100. I think I'm gonna take a few weeks off to finish some other projects ( I run RC cars and have a few in various stages of rebuilding) before I go back though. I am thinking when I do get back to the table, I may incorporate a sort of "stop loss" by, leaving or taking a break if 2-3 shooters PSO in a row. I know this game is random but it seems the dice just hit 7 way more some days than other days. Thanks for all of the replies and I will definitely use some of the info to try and tweek my game here and there! Good luck to you all!
     
    #24
  5. Settingcanthurt, Dec 28, 2015

    Settingcanthurt

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    Good report. Were you at the table with others, were there some long rolls? Are you playing the dark side at all??
     
    #25
  6. basicstrategy777, Dec 29, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    Too bad there isn't a way to avoid/minimize PSO. It would probably help/conserve buy-in.

    777
     
    #26

  7. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    I think the only way is to play pass or don't pass only and make PSOs a non factor
     
    #27
  8. basicstrategy777, Dec 29, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    I think there are ways ( more than one ) to dampen the effect of early PSO.

    The question becomes, when you can list all the ways, is the probelm important enough so that you will incorporate in your basic strategy, a way to combat this issue.

    Or do you ignore it and say....'it's all random, nobody knows what's going to happen, anything can happen, screw it...let um' fly'

    777
     
    #28

  9. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    Avoiding a 7 requires you to hedge thru a lay, come or hop bet
     
    #29
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2015
  10. tabletop123, Dec 29, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    You are correct. You cannot stop the seven. However, i NEVER bet on the first roll or two after the point is establshed. NEVER!

    Also, in terms of the Passline Bet..... Wish i could toss the dice without placing a Passline Bet. Eight ways to win, three ways to lose! Who gives a shit? It only pays even money.

    Yeah, the math says play the pass or dont pass with maximum amount of odds that you can afford. Seen a LOT of people going broke, playing that way, while the place bettors are cleaning house.

    Ive tried playing this way. Told myself that i was gonna decrease volatility & play passline with odds, but i guess i just love action, & plenty of it! Lol
     
    #30
  11. basicstrategy777, Dec 29, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    An important rule when gambling is......."you can't make it happen."

    You really do have to make it come to you.

    If you are inpatient or chase, you will have your head handed to you.


    7777
     
    #31
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  12. tabletop123, Dec 29, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    BS777, you inadertently ommitted one important point....... You'll also have your asshole ripped out, as well.ASK ME HOW I KNOW! Lol.
     
    #32
  13. Twistedwrench78, Dec 29, 2015

    Twistedwrench78

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    Sorry for leaving out some details. There were 5-6 people at the table and all of us were playing the "right" side. I saw people make a couple of bets here and there for the DON'T but nothing consistent. There were no long rolls. The best roll, I believe, was a guy made 2 points and not very many numbers in between. Further more, the 6&8 were very scarce, which is what I place so I wasn't making much. I do not play the DON'T but think I may have to change this so that if I see a "cold table", I might have a different approach.
     
    #33
  14. basicstrategy777, Dec 29, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    Trust me.....we've ALL been there.

    In all my years, there was only one time ( that I can remember) where I really lost my discipline....and boy, I paid for it. The hard lessons, he hard ones, are usually the ones that stick with you.

    777
     
    #34
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  15. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    I really think if you want to pinch a buck or two out of the joints you have to play both sides.
    Of course the hard part is when to do it....LOL...
    A good way for me is to start off don't on all new shooters. If the shooter passes I go with them
     
    #35
  16. TDVegas, Jan 11, 2016

    TDVegas

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    Living here in Vegas, one of the biggest things (and problems) I see among local players--regulars if you will, is an inability to watch a craps roll and not getting "action" on it.

    Especially at bubble craps, I see regulars playing every number, hardways and some will add horn bets on EVERY roll. These guys CRAVE action on every roll. Win or lose, they have to be in on every roll. There are a LOT of them.

    I guarantee when you look at their P/L statement by years end..it's in the four, if not five figures. I'm sure they have their days of turning $200 into $600....$400 into $1K....I guarantee they have 10 times that turning that bankroll into zero.

    I shake my head sometimes. The tourist coming to town a couple times a year and wants to go hog wild with all kinds of bets as they have limited time here...go for it. You might get lucky. The local, regular player a couple or few times a week doing that? You need a brain transplant.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 11, 2016
  17. Twistedwrench78, Jan 11, 2016

    Twistedwrench78

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    Back to the table today for the first time this year. Got there about 11:45am and it was almost full. I got in on SL1 and dove right in as soon as the current hand concluded. Started with my usual play, place the 6&8 or a pass line bet with single odds and either the 6 or 8, all minimum bets. Give them a few rolls and bring them down. Slow going!

    Today I was noticing that the 5&9 were repeating ALOT and hard 10&4 were also abundant. After a few hands I started just following the dice. I began placing numbers that I was seeing come up a lot. Still only 2 place bets or one place bet and a pass with single odds. I didn't do anything with the hard ways.

    Low and behold the 5&9 were very good to me. I was up $130 within an hour, could've been more but I am not very aggressive with pressing. The 5, I pressed a couple times up to $15 after it was paid for. I ended up walking out $85 up after about 2 hours. I really need to buckle down on my discipline when it comes to walking away.

    I even had a decent roll, making 3 points with several numbers in between.

    Overall most of the shooters were making at least one point. There were a few PSO hands but not nearly as many as I am used to seeing, here at the Mountain.

    We'll see what next Monday holds!!
     
    #37
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  18. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    Took a good old fashioned ass whippin' last night.

    I think in this game every now and then. There's a disturbance in the force somewhere or some kind of cosmic debris shit that happens and it gets decided that you will not win and that's just the way it is

    These are the nights when a stop loss is invaluable. I think if I had stayed in that seat I wouldn't be chuckling very much this morning


    I was down 15% before I settled in the seat....LOL....Dice chopped me up like a buzz saw.

    So I grind for an hour and get back to -10% and set a -5% walk number. Then I grind for another hour and of course I end up losing 20.

    For me 2.5 hours and a 20% loss is the worst possible session....LOL...I have to laugh though its just the nature of the beast.

    If all goes as planned I need 3 or 4 short session wins before I get my next VP fix.
     
    #38
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2016
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  19. Twistedwrench78, Jan 16, 2016

    Twistedwrench78

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    I think you have it backwards, it should be, every now and then there is a disturbance in the force that allows you to win!
     
    #39
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  20. Speedracer7, Jan 17, 2016

    Speedracer7

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    I am sure by now, you know that your most recent experience is "normal" for the craps game. I am new to this forum, but have a couple of thoughts. First, it is always advisable to set a loss limit for your session/day that is within your tolerance level. If that is $100 than while you may be disappointed it should be acceptable. If the $100 is not acceptable and you wish you had quit when you were down, say $50 then in the future, simply stop at that loss limit.

    Also, if you are the shooter, requiring you to make a pass line bet, you could make a Switzerland (neutral) bet which is simply betting the same amount on BOTH the pass line and the don't pass. The only way you lose on this bet is to roll a 12 (which has a 35-1 probability) on the come out roll only. When you take down your place bets, your PL and DP bets are offsets.......no win, no loss. Of course you could also make a free odds bet if one of your numbers is the point, and remove it when you take down your place bets if that is you decision.

    I use a similar betting method and take down my bets after two rolls......actually, I just call them "off" until the next shooter. Like you the reason is that the 7 will show eventually. Limiting the time your bets are up and exposed, limits your risk of loss. I sometimes play $22 inside, keeping them in place for only two rolls, and then call them off. It takes about 3 wins ($21) to break even with the house. After that, you are playing with their money. Therefore, two winning hands will put you on the plus side. Conversely, a 7 will require 3 wins to make up your loss.

    Good luck..........and do you have an update on your progress towards the $1,000 goal?
     
    #40