Conservative bets help please.

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Dirtbag, Jul 15, 2016.

  1. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    TDV
    I showcase all the time I had free clinics had a lot of people to see what we do
    I am not sure I could show you anything that would convince you of anything you have made up your mind that little or nothing works
    everything I have said , you have attacked , you try in some sneaky little way to turn everything I post into a lie
    You are that way with everyone
    I would be happy to sit down with you and show you every thing we do and why
    but I will not get into a pissing match with you
    What I do works
    based on your posts I will assume what you do works from time to time
    Again I would be happy to sit with you and discuss it
    but you want to engage in a pissing contest
    that I am not interested in
     
    #61
  2. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    koko
    can you tell me what you mean by metod of play???
     
    #62
  3. KokomoJoe4, Jul 16, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Certainly James. What I mean is that you are more likely to win if you are beginning your play close to the vest. Maybe limit yourself to one or two wagers at first, and look to get ahead with conservative play. Don't put large bets into action if the large bets are to be made with your own money.

    When you are holding a bit of house money, it is OK to go for the throat - make bigger wagers, more wagers, try some nice paying wagers - do as you please, but do NOT do this when playing with your own funds.

    Personally, I feel that contract bets and odds are better than place bets and sucker bets. If you feel otherwise, that is fine with me.
     
    #63
  4. TDVegas, Jul 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Well, when I meant showcasing at the table....I mean playing and winning. I'm not really interested in DI from a lecture standpoint because I think it's a random game. This was more along the lines of "you win, I watch". I'll report what I saw here. If you're not that confident or worried about losing...I would understand your reluctance. It's just you are very confident you will win.

    Your confidence is so extreme that it just seems like winning is almost a given. I have high doubts it's that easy...even for an accomplished player.....so show me, meaning win. You don't have to waste time with details. It's simply me as a spectator watching a table.
     
    #64
  5. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    KOKO
    I agree with a whole bunch of that
    I do play the place bets and the hard 6 and hard 8
    I do so with winnings from the house I
    If I hit a 6 I will lace 5 of the 6 on a hard 6
    and so on
    usually my odds bet on the pass line comes from the house
    I start conservative and build to very aggressive with money won
    with our betting strategy it usually takes about 4 bets to have all my money off the table
    and nothing but house working with a small profit
    and we contine from there as long as the roll continues
     
    #65
  6. KokomoJoe4, Jul 16, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    QUOTE="James Hall, post: 113341, member: 197094"]Koko
    in other words just plane old opinion
    give me facts I like facts
    here's a fact for you all or nearly all the math in craps is based on the fact that the 7 comes up every 6 rolls "ON AVERAGE"
    when that does not occur , in other words , let's say we have a shooter who is able to roll 8 rolls per seven "ON AVERAGE"
    the math is distorted it does not apply in this special case for this particular shooter
    the OPINION at that point has no basis in fact
    Give me facts objective opinions NOT BASED IN facts are mostly speculative and therefore mostly useless for any practical purposes.
    The craps math does not work for highly skilled players[/QUOTE]

    TRUE MATH showing house edge on 6 or 8 place bets, using expectations defined in the construction of casino dice:

    House Edge (HE)

    HE = (House odds - True odds) x Win probability

    Calculation for the HE as encountered by we so-called random rollers

    HE = (7/6 - 6/5) x 5/11 = -0.01515. This is the -1.52%
    = (7/6 - 36/30) x 5/11 = -0.01515 (same calculation using data over 216 rolls instead of 36 rolls, that is, six sets of 36 rolls.

    Calculation for HE as encountered by James and his crew of well-versed so-called DI's

    HE = (7/6 - 34/30) x 5/11 = +0.01515. This is + 1.52% advantage player advantage, using James suggestion of the player who performs eight rolls instead of six before the seven. The only assumption made is that two of these extra twelve rolls made before seven out happen to be the placed number.

    Math DOES NOT LIE. The above SHOWS mathematically that we can have advantage players.

    Question: Does this particular shooters data show constant and continuous evidence of the reduction of the true odds, that is, do they ALWAYS roll eight times before seven out? ....or.........Is there a lot of variability with the results they obtain?

    If the former is true, we have an advantage player.

    If the latter is true, we have randomness at work, where it is STILL mathematically POSSIBLE that the totality of data obtained for the results of one good shooter calculates that he (or she) is an AP. Possible, BUT DON"T COUNT ON IT. Why? [4]
    [3], [5][2], and [6][1].
     
    #66
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  7. HornHiYo, Jul 16, 2016

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

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    One cannot showcase to objective strangers what one does not have. :rolleyes:
     
    #67
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2016
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  8. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    #68
  9. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    TD
    you really believe it's random ??
    what would I have to do to convince you otherwise ???
     
    #69
  10. KokomoJoe4, Jul 16, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I do not wish to speak for TDV, but see post #66.
     
    #70
  11. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    TRUE MATH showing house edge on 6 or 8 place bets, using expectations defined in the construction of casino dice:

    House Edge (HE)

    HE = (House odds - True odds) x Win probability

    Calculation for the HE as encountered by we so-called random rollers

    HE = (7/6 - 6/5) x 5/11 = -0.01515. This is the -1.52%
    = (7/6 - 36/30) x 5/11 = -0.01515 (same calculation using data over 216 rolls instead of 36 rolls, that is, six sets of 36 rolls.

    Calculation for HE as encountered by James and his crew of well-versed so-called DI's

    HE = (7/6 - 34/30) x 5/11 = +0.01515. This is + 1.52% advantage player advantage, using James suggestion of the player who performs eight rolls instead of six before the seven. The only assumption made is that two of these extra twelve rolls made before seven out happen to be the placed number.

    Math DOES NOT LIE. The above SHOWS mathematically that we can have advantage players.

    Question: Does this particular shooters data show constant and continuous evidence of the reduction of the true odds, that is, do they ALWAYS roll eight times before seven out? ....or.........Is there a lot of variability with the results they obtain?

    If the former is true, we have an advantage player.

    If the latter is true, we have randomness at work, where it is STILL mathematically POSSIBLE that the totality of data obtained for the results of one good shooter calculates that he (or she) is an AP. Possible, BUT DON"T COUNT ON IT. Why? [4]
    [3], [5][2], and [6][1].[/QUOTE]
     
    #71
  12. KokomoJoe4, Jul 16, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    [/QUOTE]

    I thought that someone else authored this James?
     
    #72
  13. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    [/QUOTE]

    KoKoMo
    several of the players have been charting and averaging their rolls for at least a year and a half
    one of these players will run the average on 144 rolls do a new sheet then average the averages of several sheets he is showing right at 7.5 rolls per 7
    that is on his 12 foot table he runs about the same on one of mine he has several sheets where he will run as high as 11
    I have not seen any less than 6.5
    the question originally was if a person could throw 6 sixes in 36 rolls instead of 5 what would that do to the house advantage?
    then what would happen if at the same time you threw 5 sevens instead of 6
    what would that do to the house advantage??
     
    #73
  14. KokomoJoe4, Jul 16, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Charting data on your table at home is a pipe dream - worthless. The ONLY place results matter is in the casino with your money at risk on the table.

    Not that it matters, but that's the only place I play.

    Re the calculations, they can be done several ways. When time allows, I am going to think about that and will get back to you.

    It is a FACT that math does not lie. It is also a fact that results change constantly when dealing with calculations which account for a random event, which dice outcomes certainly are.

    How do I know this? Eagleeye will like this -- I learned it from my sixth grade science teacher.
     
    #74
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  15. tabletop123, Jul 16, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Nothing matters until your wagers are posted on a real Casino table! You can twist it any way that you'd like, but practicing at home is only to develop a consistent toss! Tailor your table to match the bounce Characteristics of the tables you play on at the Casinos,..........LOL! Good luck with that! While you're at it, match the pyranids, & the same dice too! Lol!
     
    #75
  16. HornHiYo, Jul 16, 2016

    HornHiYo

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    More biased, subjective, hearsay from someone (could be TDVegas's monkey) tossing into practice rigs that may include boxes and beds. Regardless, remove from the toss records the few long roll outliers and watch those 7.5 averages drop right down to 6.0. Little wonder how random and DI are one in the same with a different name.
     
    #76
  17. lone irish digit, Jul 16, 2016

    lone irish digit

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    The real truth about those of us who track large quantity of data on our home tables or boxes is that we cheat. My best guess based on a study of human nature is that about 90% of the practice people cheat in so much they don''t count every roll. For example I am sure these tossing incidents happen frequently which skew the results of many so-called DIs.

    1. The tossed slipped so I won't count it.
    2. Just started out with 3 sevens in a row so I think I'll go back and watch TV and won't count that data.
    3. I accidentally tossed the dice differently than what toss I am working on so I'll null it out.
    4. My wife is bitching at me again so I won't count the last 20 tosses with a SRR of 4.
    5. The toss fell on the floor so no dice
    6. Dice stuck to my fingers so no count
    7. Dice hit the side of Dave's box and was a seven so if I was on a table the result would have been different so I won't count it.
    8. At the beginning of a session don't count any tosses until I get in the groove and a nice roll.

    Now these are just a few of the ones Barney uses (he is an old fart)and he has the nerve to tell me he has an SRR of 9 but he won't play craps at the casinos. I'm sure there are plenty other excuses for not documenting your roll correctly at home. The biggest difference between DI practice at home and playing at a casino is there are no do overs on a fair toss.
     
    #77
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2016
  18. TDVegas, Jul 16, 2016

    TDVegas

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    You can practice at home until the sun rises...until you are on a casino table with other players, chips on the table, atmosphere, etc, etc...

    This idea that practice 30 days on 1 table, play 1 day on another will work is IMO a pipe dream.

    You've got to get on a casino table and pound away. Even if you have a bad day, there is tomorrow or tomorrow or tomorrow. When James says he plays 12 times a year...there's just too much chance to fall short. Then he has to go home and wait 30 days for another try.

    An advantage blackjack player would NEVER just play once a month--give or take. Never.
     
    #78
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  19. tabletop123, Jul 16, 2016

    tabletop123

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    Now THAT is hilarious......."Having a SRR of 9, but won't play in the Casinos. Lol. Digit, you've got me in stitches! That made my day, buddy!
     
    #79
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  20. Onautopilot, Jul 16, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    This one was a great way to end the day....write a book, I'll buy the first copy! :)
     
    #80
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