Conservative bets help please.

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Dirtbag, Jul 15, 2016.

  1. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    16,785
    Likes Received:
    2,367
    Gender:
    Male
    Horn
    Your point is ???
     
    #41
  2. HornHiYo, Jul 16, 2016

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2015
    Messages:
    2,969
    Likes Received:
    2,162
    You will see the man / women / it that behaves as exactly as you described in your post #29.

    ESAD
     
    #42
  3. TDVegas, Jul 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,086
    Likes Received:
    9,776
    I'm in full agreement here. You would have to follow someone around for the year to make any true determination. I don't think it's remotely possible to make it your only source of income but I have no real way of proving yes or no.

    The person, if claiming winnings truthfully on taxes could show a tax return that only shows gambling income or the main source of income. I doubt anyone in that position is declaring it all anyway. If they are, that's one helluva honest taxpayer.
     
    #43
  4. KokomoJoe4, Jul 16, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Messages:
    5,521
    Likes Received:
    4,129
    Location:
    Cranberry Twp, PA
    It's called an objective opinion, based on a concept called randomness.
     
    #44
    TDVegas and Onautopilot like this.
  5. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    16,785
    Likes Received:
    2,367
    Gender:
    Male
    Koko
    oddly enough I am familiar with all that
    what I am questioning is how much time you folks are spending in observing skilled shooters
    The opinions seem to be derived from thin air
    One on this forum replied .."I just don't believe any of that"
     
    #45
  6. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    16,785
    Likes Received:
    2,367
    Gender:
    Male
    horn post 29 on this thread??
     
    #46
  7. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    16,785
    Likes Received:
    2,367
    Gender:
    Male
    Koko
    in other words just plane old opinion
    give me facts I like facts
    here's a fact for you all or nearly all the math in craps is based on the fact that the 7 comes up every 6 rolls "ON AVERAGE"
    when that does not occur , in other words , let's say we have a shooter who is able to roll 8 rolls per seven "ON AVERAGE"
    the math is distorted it does not apply in this special case for this particular shooter
    the OPINION at that point has no basis in fact
    Give me facts objective opinions NOT BASED IN facts are mostly speculative and therefore mostly useless for any practical purposes.
    The craps math does not work for highly skilled players
     
    #47
  8. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    16,785
    Likes Received:
    2,367
    Gender:
    Male
    Horn
    I start my day everyday looking into that mirror
    It is a sight to behold
    I know why women as they pass me sigh and give me that little wink
     
    #48
  9. TDVegas, Jul 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,086
    Likes Received:
    9,776
    Well yes, it's an expectation, not a fact. Fact implies that it's a given each time.
    True.
    OK, but you aren't offering anything but your own "facts" as you call them which really aren't facts but simply something you are just stating as fact. There's no valid proof to it. So, it's not considered factual.

    KKJ could simply say it's factual that the dice are random and therefore, because each bet is paid at less than fair value...there are no advantage players.
     
    #49
  10. KokomoJoe4, Jul 16, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Messages:
    5,521
    Likes Received:
    4,129
    Location:
    Cranberry Twp, PA
    Skilled shooter? When discussing tossing dice? If by skill you mean long shoots with lots of box numbers, I am not observing them with any degree of frequency.

    When observed, I see any number of delivery systems: some as chicken feeding, some as grass seeding, some soft, some hard and occasionally some as I would envision a skilled DI, whatever that may be.

    The average of an expert tossers three shoots of 47, 2 and 3 rolls is seventeen and a third. Congratulations to that expert shooter, who is highly skilled, and who is obviously not lucky.
     
    #50
  11. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    16,785
    Likes Received:
    2,367
    Gender:
    Male
    TDV
    Let me tell you guys a couple of things , we have been going at this now for what? a little over a couple of months now

    I don't have a dog in the fight , I don't stand to gain one way or the other based on anything you guys do
    I started my little group in September of 2013 I was fortunate enough at that time to get some people in who were serious about the game

    all of them had read books bought tapes , one even trained awhile , over two years with one of the big schools and was not doing well
    some of these guys had no clue

    they came to me we started working and changed everything , they learned they practice
    one of the guys came over just last night and ordered a craps table

    Thursday night a fellow going to ACA came to Mesa while I was spending the better part of 5 hours with this very nice man several of my students came by
    he asked if he could see some of them throw dice
    one of the guys who used to live in Vegas now lives in Mesa a professional black Jack player who now prefers craps threw the dice
    36 rolls

    A lady who has yet to ever be in a casino rolled 42 rolls we showed this gentleman our payout sheet based on the roll she just did
    he asked would she have played this betting strategy
    I said yes and she said she would
    on the 9 alone on a $5 bet she would have mad over $3000
    He looked around at that point counting him there were 7 people in the room he asked is that normal
    they all said yes
    I told him that is more normal than not
    He left Mesa with a renewed attitude with what can happen
     
    #51
  12. TDVegas, Jul 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,086
    Likes Received:
    9,776
    OK, that's fine. I stated in the other thread...if you are THAT confident in your abilities and your teams abilities...winning comes consistently.

    Would you be willing to show your skills in a real casino setting to a non believer(s)?.

    Then, based on results we can put some facts behind either one of our sides...tiny as they may be, rather than this constant "he can"-----"he can't" stuff.

    I do think you have something to gain. Your credibility on your statements.
     
    #52
    Onautopilot likes this.
  13. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    16,785
    Likes Received:
    2,367
    Gender:
    Male
    KOKO
    some of the cause for confusion as it applies to the term skilled is
    a lot of the people on this forum are trying to assume that if they see someone setting the dice they are a DI
    you mentioned hitting soft , hitting hard none of these are the trademark of skilled

    the other confusion comes in the form of how much training they have had , many of these random / chunkers are merely copying what they witness
    to be truly skilled a person needs to be trained then he needs constant support / coaching on a consistent on going basis
    the guys here in Mesa won't even consider going to Vegas without first coming over for a tuneup

    Professional athletes are coached everyday
    some of our group have formed sub groups of 3 or 4 they practice together they coach each other
    in Vegas they do well
    As a golf professional I would build my swing , I would perfect my swing I would tweek my swing preparing for tournaments
    in an effort to arrive at the course with my A game

    I and my group do much the same thing with craps
    learn , train , practice to build the A game then go to Vegas
    some of these guys have been with me since Sept. of 2013
    I see them all at least twice a month some as much as once a week
    THEY ARE DOING WELL
    and believe it or not they are getting better
    the math of craps does not apply
     
    #53
  14. Twelve4s, Jul 16, 2016

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    6,379
    Likes Received:
    6,472
    Gender:
    Male

    Scrapbook woman wink,

    image.jpeg
     
    #54
    HornHiYo and Onautopilot like this.
  15. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    16,785
    Likes Received:
    2,367
    Gender:
    Male
     
    #55
  16. KokomoJoe4, Jul 16, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Messages:
    5,521
    Likes Received:
    4,129
    Location:
    Cranberry Twp, PA
    I applaud you and yours if you are successful at the game of craps. Success will have more to do with method of play, money management and good fortune (luck) than anything else.

    Craps players are NOT professional athletes. Take a look at the so-called DI "Assman" in the Corvette thread to see what I mean.
     
    #56
    tabletop123 likes this.
  17. Onautopilot, Jul 16, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,735
    Gender:
    Male
    What does "more normal than not" mean?
     
    #57
  18. James Hall, Jul 16, 2016

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    16,785
    Likes Received:
    2,367
    Gender:
    Male
    KOKO
    I do agree with some of that but tell me what you mean by method of play
    Good fortune (luck) is voodoo (superstition) therefore non existent
    there are two things that MUST OCCUR to be successful at craps
    but again if you could tell me what you mean by method of play
    thank you
     
    #58
  19. TDVegas, Jul 16, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,086
    Likes Received:
    9,776
    Ok, I take it you're really not interested in showcasing or demonstrating your winning abilities to the non believers (maybe skeptics is a better word) here. That's fine. You will be confident, we will be highly skeptical. We'll leave it at that.

    I'll ask no further.
     
    #59
  20. tabletop123, Jul 16, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    7,328
    Likes Received:
    5,271
    Lol!
     
    #60