Confusion over Prop Bets Payouts

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by analyst, Sep 25, 2017.

  1. yacraps, Sep 26, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Weeellll Ill take a stab.. dollar each 2 &12 and a 3 dollar Chuck & Ernie ? :confused: :)
     
    #21
  2. yacraps, Sep 26, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Hey Midnight...I'm die-N for the answer to your riddle..:) I am thinking you have a dollar on the 2-12 and yo...and 2 dollar on ace-deuce
     
    #22
  3. yacraps, Sep 26, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    I realize the 2 dollar ace deuce returns better, than a two dollar any crap.... what a lama I is :oops:
     
    #23
  4. The Midnight Skulker, Sep 26, 2017

    The Midnight Skulker

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    That is what a $5 horn high ace-deuce bet is. The payoffs are
    • $26 if 2 or 12 roll
    • $27 if 3 rolls
    • $11 if 11 rolls
    Since you are taking the bet down after a win add $5 to the above to get what you will have in your hand. The question: How else can you distribute $5 over the horn to give you a better return?
     
    #24
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  5. von duck, Sep 27, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    $4 any crap plus $1 yo. $32,$32,$32,$32,$16,$16, Slightly better, :).maybe $2 better for the six outcomes, normalized.
     
    #25
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2017
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  6. yacraps, Sep 27, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Im
    https://www.canstockphoto.com/bernese-mountain-dog-standing-on-tree-10967475.html
    stumped....but I know I will love the answer :)
     
    #26
  7. yacraps, Sep 27, 2017

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    Not bad Ducky
     
    #27
  8. The Midnight Skulker, Sep 27, 2017

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Not bad at all mein Herr. I first encountered the problem in The Before Time. A Kansas City dealer using the handle Von Ah posed it in a thread with the subject Horn high 3 and another Kansas City dealer using the handle mykey posted the solution. Both dealers displayed an above average knowledge of the game itself and not just of the procedures for dealing it, and I used one of mykey's ideas in an article I wrote for Casino City Times.
     
    #28
  9. analyst, Sep 28, 2017

    analyst

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    Thanks Basic and Midnight. I know this is in the realm of gamblers fantasy but I was trying to understand if there was a distinction between
    a Craps or 7 on the Comeout as opposed to any other roll. The answer appears to agree with the fact the die do not know the difference.
    (Based on my analysis of 35,000 + actual dice rolls.

    Medansky claims that his following s a CO strategy of "See a Horn: Bet a Horn", yields a 60% win ratio.
    Now I need to see if that tests out as a profitable strategy and also occasions when these numbers seem to repeat.

    Thoughts or comments based on experience? My thinking is that the odds are 1 in 6 for each to appear (Horn numbers or 7 numbers)
    and whether the number positions on the dice might be a factor.

    35000 rolls = 723 7's on CO of NEW shooter vs 718 Craps or Eleven on CO of NEW shooter. 723+718= 1441 as a %
    of 4,195 shooters = 34%.

    I did not test CO rolls AFTER shooter's first CO; only when he first became the new shooter.

    Thank you all for your input.
     
    #29
  10. twodicebilly, Sep 28, 2017

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    Analyst

    I don't know about that see a horn, bet a horn stuff, but there are a few things to
    look for.

    At the tribal casino's here in Wisconsin we see a couple of things fairly often. The
    most often is a heavy dose of 6/1 1/6....there are nights you hardly ever seen
    2/5/5/2when you see that you will also see more 11 and 12 than normal and if you
    want to make money you need to consider those bets In one manner or another.

    At two casino's up north we see a lot of 3/4 4/3.....also in Green Bay..... strangely, those
    two casino's have the ATS bets. But you do see more hard 6 & 8 than what you see on
    a table heavy to the 1/6 6/1.If you play at say the Queens in St louis it is much easier to
    beat the ATS bet than it is in Green Bay or Lac Du Falmbau.

    There is some money to be made following the seven trends at a casino.

    tdb
     
    #30
  11. DeMango, Sep 28, 2017

    DeMango

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    Should you not consider what your passline bet is, not bet the yo, any craps only? Say your passline bet is $35 and I bet $5 any craps. Yo nets $30, all others break even (or is it +$5?). Better deal no? How to make this equation apples to apples? $32 line bet?
     
    #31
  12. KokomoJoe4, Sep 30, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    My SOP is to give her a red when asking her to fetch me a coffee. While there is no money in it, she will always be back several times to see if I need another, so it works for me.
     
    #32
  13. analyst, Sep 30, 2017

    analyst

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    TDB:

    Appreciate sharing your experience. For the past months I've been studying data based on 35,000 actual rolls, the book 7,500 Craps Rolls
    and now the 14,967 rolls found in the "72 Hours" book. Tks for providing those ideas. Best of luck to all.
     
    #33
  14. Edward-ky, Sep 30, 2017

    Edward-ky

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    I don't have to ask they just bring me coffee. I'll show up and one lady just brings it cause she saw me come in. They like the tippers.
     
    #34
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  15. KokomoJoe4, Sep 30, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I don't have it that good, but when you toss them a red upon the request, they will get back to you soon enough, sometimes too soon.
     
    #35
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  16. Mssthis1, Sep 30, 2017

    Mssthis1

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    Break those rolls down into small samples of 50 or 72. See how many sevens and horn numbers are in those samples and then check the sample or samples, immediately following to see what happened. The sevens and horn numbers will usually trend in a wave pattern above and below the mean when you break it down into smaller roll samples. Wait for the wave to peak or trough and reverse direction and then you reverse your betting accordingly. I track horn numbers also because horn numbers are good for the dark side bettor and use the they're due theory when the number gets 20% below mean for the sample size I use.

    I size my bets and pressing schedule by how far above or below the trend line the sevens and horn numbers are.
     
    #36
  17. James Hall, Sep 30, 2017

    James Hall

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    My point was saving a $3 hop bet may not be money better spent , especially if your bet hits
    By the same token tipping her well will get better service
     
    #37
  18. analyst, Oct 1, 2017

    analyst

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    Mssthis:

    I am doing something similar; although it may not be correct. Let me say that TDV's post about how he won 72K was an inspiration
    and motivation for my project. Since I don't live in Vegas, and have to travel to the casinos, a grind system is not to my liking. I
    Thanks for that valuable feedback Mssthis. I'm doing something similar so I might be on the right track, although my sample size is 36.
    Those 'waves' you reference seem to appear in the data of those profiles as well.
     
    #38
  19. von duck, Oct 1, 2017

    von duck

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    Direct me to the thread and post number, where TDV, wins 72k.
     
    #39
  20. analyst, Oct 2, 2017

    analyst

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    Can't seem to find it although I have it printed out.

    You try please: "Had Biggest Hand Ever! + 72K" by Vegas Dice Controller (aka-I think--Advantage Craps Player)
     
    #40