Cherokee Fire

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Fire thrower, Mar 11, 2018.

  1. TDVegas, Mar 20, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    As I said James...you are quick to lob insults on other parts of the country---but if your precious Texas gets a jab, you get testy.

    All well and fine...but a bit childish. Don't dish it out if you can't take it.

    Even your Mesa has a bunch of crime issues. You're no great shakes there. Mesa was unique in that it was designed with an idea to incorporate lower income neighborhoods with more affluent ones. While that has some socio-economic benefits...it also has a big detraction. Crime....and a spillover of it into more affluent areas is more prevalent.

    I probably would have gone with Scottsdale instead.
     
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  2. random_roller, Mar 20, 2018

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    Your way is lower HE.

    I take a different approach on bonus bets because they don't hit with nearly the same frequency as a PL or place bet. IMO, as far as bonus bets are concerned, something is usually better than nothing; at least recover the initial outlay plus a little extra. Also, I might have a good amount bet on the ATS, making it an obvious lay bet when the opportunity affords itself. More often than not, however, on the ATS I don't have the option of laying a number because it's the dang 2/3 or 11/12 that remains before the All Tall or All Small hits.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 20, 2018

  3. Liman

    Liman Member

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    so if you have already hit an all tall and every other number except for lets say the 4, you will lay the 4 for what reason?(ok, I do get the hedging part, of it, but read my next line)

    you are essentially betting against what your initial bets were made for?

    you are now willing to give back the lay bet if it wins?

    hedging now, after you hit every number, why not make the no 4 bet from the start, odds of not hitting it are the same every roll?

    I just don't get the hedging philosophy, maybe Im misunderstanding the strategy.

    my point, and Im not trying to be combative on hedging, you are willing to bet 5 dollars each on very, very long shot bets. No problem with that at all, nada, go for it, I have myself gone for it.
    then when you are real close, and already have one 35 to one bet in, you now have lost confidence from your initial betting strategy and concede on of your bets will lose?
    the way I play, every bet is equal on every roll of the dice, the odds of hitting the same numbers remain the same, the payout will be huge if you hit the all all, but I personally wouldn't lay the last number at that point. but I understand the reasoning behind hedging a long shot win bet....its just something I wouldn't do.

    why not lay 3 numbers after you hit the all tall or small so if you seven out the next roll you already won the all tall, then collect on all the other numbers?
     
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  4. James Hall, Mar 20, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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  5. FredP

    FredP Member

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    What I understand about this is if, say the 4 is missing to make one of the ATS, it is a sure win if you lay the 4. Either win will be less than the ATS win without the lay, but it'll be a sure win. Doesn't hold for 5,6,8 or nine, but I haven't done the math on those. You need to lay the correct amount to make this work.
     
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  6. James Hall, Mar 20, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    You got that , "$#^*T" straight Mesa pretty much sucks , the snow birds / winter visitors outnumber residents every winter by a large margin
    They come here and buy or rent mobile . homes and camp out for 6 months , October thru April
    many of them will sell their trailer and go back to , Minnesota , Michigan , Wisconsin New Jersey , New Hampshire
    Then repeat the process the following year . Back in the late 60 thru part of the 80s mobile home / trailer parks were popping up everywhere in Mesa
    Being an , >>"( EXTREMELY INTELLIGENT )"<<, person I got my ( fictitious friends) together here in the valley
    and we opened up a company here and started
    buying and selling mobile homes and listing them to sell , the business was great , every year more and more snowbirds / winter visitors were coming
    into the valley and as I said trailer parks were going up everywhere , the citizens of Mesa revolted and the City stopped
    any further development of mobile home / trailer parks , We made a ton of money when we sold our last mobile homes we quit

    Mesa Arizona is the trailer park community of the world , Mesa , "SUCKS"

    Notice the ( ) they indicate sarcasm and the included statement should not be accepted as boasting , chest thumping
    or any other outward displays of superiority over TDV , auto pilot or other members of the , "GROUP OF INSIDERS"
     
    #146

  7. FredP

    FredP Member

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    Hey James, when are you going to start whining and bitching about Cambridge Analytica? They know more about your life, and your friends, than "we" do.
     
    #147
  8. random_roller, Mar 20, 2018

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    As I had mentioned, for bonus bets such as the ATS bets, IMO winning something is better than nothing. That's my underlying play w/r/t the ATS bets, especially when I'm only 1 number away from hitting the All All. Hedging does not mean I have lost confidence in anything. There have been quite a few times when only 1 box number was needed for the All All and it never hit. Laying a number from the very beginning would be defeatist. Laying multiple numbers can get too expensive, but I have done it on occasion when I had $25 or more on the All All and needed 2 numbers to complete one end (and the All All). In the end, as long as I have a shot at hitting the All All, I'll keep trying, but locking in a "guaranteed" win on a bonus bet is a good move in my book.

    At Rivers Casino (Des Plaines, IL), the payout is 34 to 1 upon hitting the All Tall or All Small, 175 to 1 upon hitting the All All. The shooter must hit the All Tall & All Small numbers before ANY 7 in order to win the All All, so a roll of 6,5,4,3,2,6,7 (come out),8,9,10,11,12 would not be an All All winner even though both the All Small and then the All Tall were made. I've done that several times and it really sucks.

    Say I bet $5 across (i.e., $5 on each of the 3 ATS bets, $15 action total). If I hit the All Small, that's a $170 payout ($5 x 34), plus I get my $5 bet returned. Same payout ($5 x 34 = $170) for the All Tall if I hit it, and again my $5 bet is returned. Finally, if I hit the All All, that's an $875 payout ($5 x 175), plus I get my $5 bet returned. Rivers has a $5 minimum ($5 increments) and $100 maximum each of the ATS bets. When I'm the shooter, I typically will have more than $5 across bet on the ATS.

    If I have already hit the All Tall (and collected $170) and only need the 4 to complete the All Small (as well as the All All), I have an opportunity to hedge. I could win an additional $1,045 ($170 + $875) bonus, plus get my $10 bets (All Tall, All All) returned. Just gotta throw the 4 before the 7. However, if ANY 7 -- (7 out or come out 7) is rolled before I throw a 4, then I get absolutely nothing for the All Tall and All All bets, and I would lose the $10 bet. So I'm faced with the prospect of locking in, say, a guaranteed $200 (by Laying the 4 for $410) with an opportunity to win $635 ($1,045 - $410) + return of $10 bet, or not hedging and thereby taking a shot at $1,045 + return of $10 but also taking a 2:1 chance (need the 4) there will be $0 payout on those bonus bets and loss of $10 bets (if ANY 7 is rolled before a 4). Now if I had $15, $25, or, say, $50 on the All All...
     
    #148
  9. James Hall, Mar 20, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    yeah I know , every time I go into a store a thing pops up on my phone to rate them
    (I was talking to Bob Mercer just the other day and he said he would set my phone to shield from all that . I am going to
    buy a new phone , send it to him and have him set it up for me)
     
    #149
  10. James Hall, Mar 20, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Tell Liman , confidence is a good thing but too much of a good thing can be BAD
     
    #150
  11. random_roller, Mar 20, 2018

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    Different ways of playing. If I can get $600+ from $5 bet on both the All Small & All All, I'll take it every time. I could also make the Lay 4 bet smaller (say, $205, win $100 if the 7 hits first) and increase my maximum potential win. Really personal preference when it comes to a hedge bet on a bonus bet.
     
    #151
  12. James Hall, Mar 20, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    I can't see how winning either way on a bet that you already have a big payday oncould be bad
     
    #152
  13. random_roller, Mar 20, 2018

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    Yeah, the hard part is getting to the point where the Lay bet can lock in a guaranteed win on the ATS bet. But when the opportunity is there, it's a pretty good feeling. Make the Lay bet on the last remaining ATS number, then get paid regardless of the outcome.
     
    #153
  14. James Hall, Mar 20, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Yep you win either way , how many times can that happen?
     
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  15. Liman

    Liman Member

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    and different ways of viewing things. I get the hedge betting thing. Ill try once more to make my point, Im not as good as you as making myself clear, and Im not going to sit with and figure out odds and numbers......

    the reason you bet the all all bets are clear. We all know, well, most of us know the odds of winning them are astronomical.

    its a side bet done for "fun", an adrenaline rush, betting 15 dollars across on all all bets isn't going to bust anyone, but it adds up,

    Ive stood at tables for 90 minutes and not seen any of the alls hit. That can be 30 decisions, maybe more. at 15 a pop, that's 450 bucks, the amount the hedging is giving up even though you will walk with a winner of 600 and change if the all all comes in.

    to me, the purpose of betting the all bets is for the long odds and the big rewards

    I anticipate a 175 to one not to mention 2 35 to one bets as my reward.

    Im playing it for that reward.

    I will not concede any of it once Im that close, its like giving back 40% with a 400 dollar lay.

    figure in the amounts of all all bets you lose in the course of a days play, makes it not worth if youre not hitting any 35 to one bets once every 12 rolls?

    and the all all comes in a lot less than people on this board would lead us to believe. That's been my experience, and Ive played enough to know what reality is.

    random, whatever you do, don't view my opinion as insulting your way of play.

    and asshole halls opinion means nothing to me, he doesn't know the first thing about real craps, live or bubble strategy.

    it boils down to do you want to play with hedge betting or not.

    I choose one way to go, and press at a pace Im comfortable with and never look to hedge and concede anything, which hedge betting is, conceding one bet, but getting a guaranteed win at a much lower payout than the anticipated original bet, or the intended odds on the original bet.

    you are happy to cut the 175 odds down to whatever depending upon what lay you make, in order to secure a decent payoff , just not the big payoff you originally bet.

    again, that's fine for some, but I factor in all the all all bets you made before and lost, and all them bets you will make the next time, and the next time, and then I wonder if betting and hedging the all all bet actually makes sense, since its a very high odds bet, and once that will mostly be lost every time. so factoring in the amount one loses before he actually has a chance to collect his lowered bet with the hedge, that's the only reason I question the hedge, at that point.

    not sure I made myself clear, I hope when we play together in Chicago we have this problem.

    ok, Ill drop this now, I don't hedge, you do, we can agree to disagree, there isn't a right or wrong answer, no one has statistics on how many all all bets are lost before one is won.
     
    #155

  16. Liman

    Liman Member

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    yeah, random, sorry, you just said that, personal preference., thankyou.
     
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  17. James Hall, Mar 21, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Your buddy

    , "TEDIOUS VEGAS" will be thrilled with your diatribe , you were able to put another of your insults in with your
    BS post , get a hold of him he will have a half a dozen or so atta boys for you
    Having said that , your post did make SOME sense and does to many who are what I call bet purists

    Not everything you say is wrong , you are just vindictive. , you remember from your personal message days with your other New York guy
    "I'm getting tired or James Hall , he's mean I'm avoiding him after insulting his college so you take over the attacks" from your end"
    All that was over a year and a half ago and you are still at it

    Spend as much time working on your game as you do insulting , you could win one now and then
     
    #157
  18. James Hall, Mar 21, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    As you may know we are moving out of Mesa , Scottsdale is , FINE & DANDY we lived there at one time , but there are better areas
    Paradise Valley is nicer by far

    One of my favorite in the valley is , Carefree , I lived there for awhile and played a lot of golf at Desert Forest golf club
     
    #158
  19. random_roller, Mar 21, 2018

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    That's what it comes down to -- personal preference.

    I don't always hedge the end ATS bets even when the opportunity presents itself. A lot depends upon the shooter, how the table has been, and how much I have wagered on the ATS bets. Even when I make a Lay bet to lock in some chips, I'm still hoping the roll continues for a while and the Lay bet just sits there. At some point, if enough of my other bets are hit, it might actually be better for me to take down the Lay bet. That's a good problem to have.
     
    #159
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  20. Liman

    Liman Member

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    yeah, that's a horse of a different color.

    when it gets to the point that you already hit all but one number on the all bets, by then, it could have been quite a run, double bankroll time, then good ole gambling instincts take over, hedge, or screw the hedge.

    Im a come bettor, and the rare occasion that I get spooked, maybe after 15-20 rolls and my number hasn't hit, I might pull down the odds on both comes and passline, and just sit and wait it out, not risking heavy bankroll.
    it actually happened when I was with basic 777 in Mohegan, some guy rolled 20 times and didn't repeat one of my come bets so I just said screw it, and took all my odds down. That's me hedging my bets.
     
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