Can You Accept The Possibility That You're Wrong?

Discussion in 'Dice Influencing' started by kaysirtap, Jan 17, 2012.

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Which statement best describes your general beliefs about dice control/influencing?

  1. I believe dice control works, and nothing will convince me that I'm wrong.

    54.2%
  2. I believe dice control works, but I'm willing to accept the possibility that I'm wrong.

    12.5%
  3. I don't believe dice control works, and nothing will convince me that I'm wrong.

    25.0%
  4. I don't believe dice control works, but I'm willing to accept the possibility that I'm wrong.

    8.3%
  5. I don't know whether or not dice control works.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. falcon, Jun 7, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    My proposed dates are Sept. 17 - 20 (Sun to Wed). I have a comp trip scheduled for that date to Biloxi and the Beau Rivage. I can not promise you but I will try to get my contact from the Beau to comp you and your collegue for those nights. Let me know if that fits your schedule and I will make my contact aware of your intentions for the trip.

    Camera phone shots may pose a problem so I would defer to your good judgement.

    falcon
     
    #101
  2. falcon, Jun 7, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    I am down for no work, and your carefree approach to the game is very healthy. However, since my play eliminates the PL/FO bets, I will always pass the dice and usually start my play after any shooter establishes the point. It works for me and the table conditions determine my play.

    falcon
     
    #102
  3. mejustjustin, Jun 24, 2012

    mejustjustin

    mejustjustin Member

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    Lol. Well, now that I'm done reading the argument...

    I used to believe in it... but now I am beginning not to. I used to have a lot of hot rolls using dice control, but I haven't had any in a long time. I do believe dice control "may" work if you get in a muscle / aiming / throwing rhythm. Just most of the time, it is hard to get into that rhythm. It really is up in the air. I think it's possible, but I'm leaning no on this one.

    PS - Maybe my skills "are not yet complete", but I once did an experiment: 200 throws random rolling, 200 throws of dice control (hard way set). I rolled more 7's using dice control. I do think I rolled more hard ways using the set, but I still made less points and 7'd out more, which really shouldn't happen. I also did it on a shorter craps table which may have effected the outcome.
     
    #103
  4. falcon, Jun 24, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    mjj: Welcome to the fray. Every "committed" "influencer/controller" would probably say that your "sample" is way to small. They would then go into some sort of diatribe about the set, which "axis" was used, on/off "axis," or any one of another number of flaws that may have effected your play.

    I just read an article by the Mad Professor complete with a huge litany of charts. The bottom line for me on this article was that the difference between a random shooter with an SRR-6 and the pretty accomplished "influencer" with an SRR-9 was only about 5.5%. That, for me, is miniscule. To put that figure in perspective, in professional golf scoring, the lowest average PGA tour score is 69.5 and 5.5% of that would be 73.3. Many of the touring pros exceed that number and still do quite well. Yet the vast majority of millions of committed golfers (wannabees) come nowhere near that 5.5% number as their scores average near 100.

    So my basic questions are how many SRR-9's are there, and at the end of the day, how much less do they lose over the random roller??

    falcon
     
    #104
  5. basicstrategy777, Jun 24, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    You shoot 73 for 4 rounds; If 70 is par and you shoot 3 over par for 4 rounds...thats 12 over par for the tournament. You are going to win zero tournaments and finish way, way out of the money if you shoot +12.

    I'm not a believer, however, that was a bad example to make your point......IMHO.


    777
     
    #105
  6. DeMango, Jun 24, 2012

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    My dear friend Falcon;
    If I had an overall SRR of 9, that is to say reduced by 1/3 the amount of sevens rolled on the point cycle, I would, within a few weeks to months, own any casino I should chose to bankrupt. 5.5% my donkey, please, reread the article. And do post again there, your last post was taken down way too soon!
     
    #106
  7. Southern-Comfort, Jun 24, 2012

    Southern-Comfort

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    Indeed. Or to look at it the way the casinos would. They expect the seven to hit, on average, every 6th to seventh roll. Their entire profit philosophy relies on that. If you can manage a consistant 8 rolls before the seven (9th roll), you have effectively put the odds on your side. Thats where table limits and passive-aggressive attention from floor personel comes in.
     
    #107
  8. falcon, Jun 24, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    BS7's: Two points:

    I agree that my example was not the best. What I should have stated is that if the average golfer, say a 20 handicapper (I believe that is above average) shoots mostly in the low 90's, and takes bunches of lessons, practices alot, and only improves 5.5%, he will bring his scores down to the high 80's or reduce his handicap by 3 or 4. That hardly would be enough to be competitve in any meaningful way including his club championship.

    Obviously it depends on the tournament and the course, however, while the cut in most tournaments are between -2 and +1, those last 10 -15 places could well be at +12 or more and still win some pretty good $$$. There are lots of touring pros that do not win and still make a good deal of money with a scoring average above par simply because they have and can produce four competitive rounds on any given week of play.

    falcon
     
    #108
  9. falcon, Jun 24, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    DeM: Your point is well taken, and I will re-check, but why not ask Heavy. Based on what I can deduce, his SRR is 9 or better, and I do not believe he has bankrupted any casinos recently. BTW I think that your calculation of reducing the amount of 7's by 1/3 is erroneous simply because if an SRR of 6 is just random, a player making bets just on every five tosses and stop at the sixth and wait for the next 7 whenever it appears and wager again would also come out a huge winner.

    Another way of putting it is since the 7 shows on average once every six tosses, the non-7 shows 83.3% of the time so the random shooter could win something 83.3% of the time on average and do very very well. A shooter with an SRR of 9 only hikes that number to about 88.8% which in the grand scheme of things would not bankrupt anything but his own wallet perhaps after a longer time at the tables.

    falcon
     
    #109
  10. Chingy711, Jun 24, 2012

    Chingy711

    Chingy711 Member

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    I made the trip to Atlantic City yesterday and had a very nice run. I played
    about 18 hours, 3 hours at Bally's and the rest at the Taj. Now that I visit this
    forum at least once a day to check out any new post, I pay more attention
    to people who set the dice at the tables. I would say that 1 out of every 5
    shooters I noticed yesterday were setting the dice. I watch to see what sets
    they use and how they throw the dice and naturally what their results are.
    Most set the dice and then "wing" them 98 miles an hour, it's funny at times
    when you watch them take 10 seconds setting the dice and getting their grip
    just right then throw the dice like a fast ball. Then there are those that have
    that nice soft loft aiming for the same landing spot on the table over and over.
    Well I didn't see any big rolls throughout the day except one young girl at the Taj,
    she had 2 very nice rolls, one with about 25 rolls and the other about 35 rolls.
    She was a professional without question, she picked the dice up and blew them
    a kiss and her "fast ball" was easily about 120 miles an hour. She almost killed me
    a few times because I was at the other end of the table facing her.

    Most of the players were line and odds then place bets inside. I watch many
    guys buy in for a $1,000 or $2,000 get rocked and having to go back into
    their pockets a few times. Watched one guy buy back in at least 5 times, it
    was so sad watching this guy. It was one or two place hits and 7 out or even worst
    even the table went point 7 out without one inside number hitting over and over and
    over. At one point the dice went around the table almost 3 times without anyone
    hitting a point. Sure there were a few 7/11 come out roll winners, but all you heard
    was 7 OUT!

    I'm a Don"t player and naturally I was quietly smiling and putting chips in the rail.
    One guy standing next to me said to me, "Your killing them but the dice have to change."
    Of course, he just kept setting the dice on the 3V and covering the inside fairly heavy
    hit one number and 7 out. This went on for a few hours and he finally walking a way
    cursing and exhausting his marker limit. I wanted so much to tell him to go try another
    table but I swear I think he would have throw a punch at me! I have mentioned in other
    post I was a big inside bettor for over 30 years, sure it's great when you run into the big
    roll and there's thousands in the rack and a ton on all the numbers and the keep repeating.
    But that "7 OUT" is a monster when starts showing it's face over and over. Sadly I have to
    admit it cost me over a million throughout all those years covering the inside. So for all
    you die heart inside players try to drag some money to the rail and when that big roll
    shows up, take the money and run! You'll rarely see a table stay hot for hours at a time.
    But will run into many tables were all you"ll heard is '7-OUT" which will feel like forever.

    7-OUT doesn't have to be a nightmare, it's become my SAVER! Think about how many
    numbers you need to just get even if you cover the inside and get hit with point 7-out
    3 or 4 times in a row, not to mention your pass line and odds. Every single craps player
    who has spent anytime at the tables knows, it's happens more than we wish to believe!
     
    #110
  11. DeMango, Jun 24, 2012

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    My dear Falcon:

    Observe the math:

    Random: One seven per 6 rolls or 6 per 36

    SRR9: One seven per 9 rolls or 4 per 36

    A reduction of 4/6 or one third.

    Even a third grader could do this.
     
    #111
  12. JGreen6918, Jun 24, 2012

    JGreen6918

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    Don't you mean 2/6?
     
    #112
  13. falcon, Jun 25, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    Mr. DeMango:

    I rechecked the data presented in an article written by a highly published guy called the Mad Professor. I believe $nakeye$ is familiar with his work. He is suppose to be a highly respected DI. He published a chart on Survivability using the Iron Cross as a winning conduit for tosses made after any point is established. His chart shows "Ones chances of receiving a winning pay before a 7 out." I will not produce the chart in its entirety but relevant data as published.

    Rolls SRR-6 SRR-9

    1 83.33% 88.89%

    2 69.44% 79.01%

    5 40.18% 55.50%

    9 19.37% 34.65%

    Please note that the point - 7 out has only a 5.5% margin and that as the number of rolls increase "survivability" drops dramatically with the SRR-9 having anywhere from a 5.5% edge to a 15% edge over the random roller. However, one should note that tossing nine numbers with only a 34.65% "survivability" prior to a 7 out will in no way create orgasmic wins and multiple casino bankrupcies.

    Is this chart valid? I have no clue, but why not ask $nakeye$ for his opinion.

    falcon
     
    #113
  14. DeMango, Jun 25, 2012

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    It is valid for it's bet. It's not valid for the math of comparing SRR's
     
    #114
  15. falcon, Jun 25, 2012

    falcon

    falcon Member

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    DM: If you take away the bet, i.e., the IC and replace it with any other right side combo or single wager, the only thing that changes is winning on any non-7 toss. The "survivability" of not losing any wager is exactly the same. The only difference is collecting on an uncovered wager.

    Think about it rationally; I know you are better than that. Let's suppose you have an SRR of 9 and you bet the PL. Your next toss provides a 9 point and you bet 5X odds plus the 6 & 8 for $30 each. The chart above is always in play. The fact that you do not collect on subsequent rolls that are not the point or the 6 or 8 changes nothing, and you have upheld that the chart is valid.

    falcon
     
    #115
  16. $nakeEye$, Jun 25, 2012

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    ;-)

    There is nothing more than that - that I can say !
     
    #116
  17. DarkSiderRidah, Jun 26, 2012

    DarkSiderRidah

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    To a large extent I agree with this. Im new to the Forum, been reading for about a week and thoroughly entertained by the resident cast of characters. Just going back to the subject of this thread, I stumbled across the subject of dice control on the web and eventually found this forum. Well everyone, Ive SEEN first hand on my last trip to LV, guys making major cash setting the dice and methodically lobbing them. Only later I discovered that the guy, who was next to me at the table, was a DI. What caught my attention was a) When it was his turn he usually had longer rolls than every1 else at the table. b) He would ritually set the dice to 3's. c) He had more chips than the rest. After weeks of researching DC I later learned that he was using the famous 3V set.

    So yeah, my tent is pitched in the DI "believer" camp. :smirk: I even believe there are Sub-Concious Dice Influencers. People who unknowingly "set" the dice and toss them in a certain way where they come off the hand the same way every time producing that familiar result.

    -DSR
    Excited about being a part of the Forum. I hope to continue learning how to avoid making the mistakes some of you have paid, what seems to be fortunes, for :coolsmile:
     
    #117
  18. James Hall, Jan 22, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Can't hurt a bit
     
    #118
  19. twodicebilly, Jan 22, 2019

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    JAMES

    You go to your local casino or on any trip around the country. A good many
    players set the dice. People pick them up, set them to a certain number
    than throw as hard as they can.

    whether it works or not, many players like the idea that they had something to
    do with the outcome.

    TDB
     
    #119
    James Hall likes this.
  20. James Hall, Jan 22, 2019

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    More good stuff from days gone by and a thought that would do
    some people a lot of good.
     
    #120
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