Beyond two or three hits!

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by tabletop123, Feb 3, 2016.

  1. tabletop123, Oct 27, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    I STILL say that anyone that professes to have a SRR north of 6 Should be playing a Iron Cross & printing money! All of this bullshit about XYZ Dice Set SHOULD bring such & such a number totally escapes me!

    Why try to snipe a particular number/s using a particular dice set? The name of the game is Seven Avoidance( if playing Rightside). Now, Old TableTop would load up on the Iron Cross & just avoid the Seven for the first 6 rolls!

    Fuck the old saying that the field bet during the Iron Cross dilutes the 5,6,& 8! Who the fuck cares? You're printing money GUARANTEED with your SRR north of 6! Be happy, & stop being so friggin greedy JUST BECAUSE the 5,6,8 are dilluted by the field bet!

    SRR north of 6.........You are getting just as good a deal as God gave Noah, & you don't even need to build an Ark!
     
    #61
  2. tabletop123, Oct 27, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    UNLESS the shooter is influencing the dice! Lol. Okay, OAP, I KNOW the "Influencing" statement carries absolutely no weight with you! Lol. Just had to toss it in there for shits, & giggles!
     
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  3. Onautopilot, Oct 27, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    Actually, with an SRR of over 6, all pass, come, and place bets gain an advantage of some sort. How much, and if it overcomes the HA is dependent on the exact SRR.

    The iron cross makes sense, especially with a triple pay in the field, but there are other strategies that perform equally as well over time!
     
    #63
  4. Onautopilot, Oct 27, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Absolutely, also biased dice have some predictability!

    My references are all related to fair dice....a random chance game.

    Also, I do not dismiss DI out of hand, just highly suspect of some of the DI claims is all.
     
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  5. oldgrasshopper, Oct 27, 2016

    oldgrasshopper

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    ===============================
    Might as well through this out there as well. I have read Rick's post saying that he does not start betting UNTIL AFTER THE 3RD ROLL.
    I can see the logic therein, because of Sally's stats that one is most likely to PSO after the third roll, then after the second roll.
     
    #65
  6. oldgrasshopper, Oct 27, 2016

    oldgrasshopper

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    ==============
    Dumbo mistake: throw not through
     
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  7. KokomoJoe4, Oct 27, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Again, by definition, a PSO (point seven out) can only occur in TWO rolls. The first roll MUST establish a point. The second roll MUST be seven. Anything other than this is NOT a PSO.
     
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  8. Onautopilot, Oct 27, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    She did not really say that! You really have to understand what "mean average" is. It does not predict that any roll carries a higher expectation that a seven will be rolled...period!
     
    #68
  9. betwthelines, Oct 27, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    really? and then what exactly?

    and then never come back, never play craps again?

    It's All One Big Session...And Then You Die.

    the Tough Craps player, whose play is "shooter neutral", shooter agnostic if you will, allus gets a kick out of you players---as far as i can tell it is ALL of you---whose strategies are organized around the individual shooter and who talk about locking in a "profit" after winning such and such using your such and such betting strategy...

    a "profit" for that one shooter? isn't one shooter a rather narrow window? a rather narrow time frame? you take your "profit" and then leave?, never to return and play craps again?

    one of my favorite posters here, ttop, avers this is exactly what he often does: stays for a shooter or two and then streaks for the cage with his "profits".

    but we also know that ttop does in fact return to the rail the next day or the next week or the next month and tries it all over again...this is put forth as an effective strategy...and it is if one ignores the UNDENIABLE FACT that his probabilities on the new day are exactly the same as they would have been had he stayed around after his brief "profits" the time before...

    now ttop is more forthcoming than most here to discuss his losses but somehow i sense that we do not hear about all of those 2 or 3 shooter sessions when every dollar that he has put into it is gone.

    just as the TC player views each, individual shooter as such a narrow and brief time frame, swamped by the sheer volume of the number of annual (or lifetime!) shooters, so too is a brief but profitable instance of 3 or 4 shooters returning again to the same probabilities he would have encountered had he stuck around anyway.

    It's All One Big Session...And Then You Die.

    tom p
     
    #69
  10. TDVegas, Oct 27, 2016

    TDVegas

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    Interesting, tom...
    Does the tough craps player have "limits"....

    Or is needing sleep the deciding factor?
    Food?
     
    #70
  11. KokomoJoe4, Oct 27, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

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    IAOBSATYD --------> There is of course no denying this. For at least two reasons. In fact,
    my thoughts on the hit and run being the best way to play is exactly because IAOBSATYD.

    If you can get on a progressive roll, the wager will get bigger and bigger until finally a table limit wager sits in limbo. If it hits, bet it again, and again...........until a loser finally shows. Ideally, the inevitable loser will show at come out, rather than when loaded with maximum odds.

    The idea is simply to get as much out of the bank as you can until experiencing the session-ending loser, while using the minimum number of as low as possible house edge bets as can be done while gambling - one.

    If/when fortunate enough to escape the casino with as large a profit as possible, take your winnings home so you are able to play another day since in fact IAOBSATYD.
     
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  12. Bases loaded, Oct 27, 2016

    Bases loaded

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    betwthelines throwing ice water in the faces of craps players everywhere, wake up!

    Of course I fall victim to the exact mentality he warns against.

    I've actually been on what I think is a nice little winning streak my last bunch of plays at the electronic craps table. But this of course is meaningless, as the P and L will not be finalized until the dirt nap begins.
     
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  13. tabletop123, Oct 27, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Well, everyone on this forum has read my posts wherein I DID reveal to getting my nuts SEVERLY clipped! I don't just post my wins!

    One must do what works for him/her while playing this marvelous game of craps. HELL NO, I do NOT win every session, but call it confirmation bias, or downright fabrication, but since I have modified my betting approach ( my propensity to flee to the Cashier's cage has NEVER wavered) which is to ONLY bet on my own hands for two or three tries Whilst "Sending it in" Hard & Heavy is what works for Me!

    THUS FAR, my wins have FAR outnumbered my losses. Three turns with the dice, & flee with a profit after ANY successful hand within those three attempts!

    So what happens if there is no profit or a loss after three attempts? DONE FOR THAT PARTICULAR SESSION. Old Top's mindset is a little different from most players because I have a Casino environment right in the comfort of home. Can toss dice anytime I want so there's no need for me to frequent a Casino because I haven't tossed dice in a while!

    Most often I always hear players state that they haven't played craps in a couple weeks or so, & they were just itching to play!

    Once Again, I wouldn't give a shit if I drove 3 hours just to toss the dice ONLY ONCE to garner a respectable win!

    So, what does Old Top consider respectable? AINT TELLING!
     
    #73
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  14. betwthelines, Oct 27, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    there are no win limits...further the (odds) bet progression is relentless and unending given a win...

    the Tough Craps Fantasy is to reach the table limit of every casino in the country and even then jawbone casino management to raise the limit until finally an eventual loss occurs or the limit raise is refused...BUT EVEN THEN the TC player would seek out another casino that would agree to his next bet!...until every recourse is finally exhausted

    if needed and after telephone inquiries & research the TC player would book the next flight to vegas or wherever in order to get his next bet...at the local joint his "next bet" would entail an approximately 200 mile drive to the boat in elgin, il...the TC player carries with him in his wallet TC bets that progress up to something like $48k...this would not be the limit however!---additional bets would be easily extrapolated---it is just that he has run out of room on that paper he carries around & who wants too bigga bulge in his wallet...lol...

    Put Another Way The Tough Craps Player Is Almost Certain To Lose The Biggest Bet He Ever Makes.

    quite the fantasy, don't you think?
    put it this way: these SHOULD be deciding factors and often times are---not always...lol

    tom p
     
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  15. TDVegas, Oct 27, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    But with a negative expectation game....aren't you GUARANTEED to lose if you don't set some kind of stopping point? Otherwise---what makes you walk away with profit?
     
    #75
  16. Onautopilot, Oct 27, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    That glorious run that puts you in the "forever ahead" category!

    TC has its merits, you may lose a thousand times, but if that magic ever happens, you are home free!

    Much like playing "lotto" craps, where you parlay a bet to the table limit, and ask for a limit raise, just keep going until you are "forced" to take your winnings! A thousand small losses, for one big bag of gold.

    Bet it up, or bet it down.....neither one can be claimed to be the better of the two in the, "it's all one big session" scenario.
     
    #76
  17. betwthelines, Oct 27, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    o come on now, bl...i mean really all i said was i, "allus gets a kick out of" players that are so bent upon such short term thinking as 1 mere shooter...gee, really not my intention to throw cold water on anyone...

    indeed the very fact that 100% minus 1---or maybe make that minus 2---of players organize their strategies around the individual shooter should say something about its validity...and of course it is as valid as anything else, doing zero harm in addition to being eminently logical...

    as you yourself have represented your play on this forum, you are, unwittingly or not, playing "shooter neutral" craps yourself...although because they are "named" differently 7s might not agree but your pass and come bets are exactly the same in the only terms that actually matter: the way they are paid...(i also got a "kick out of" 7's aristotelian logic---a logic btw whose shit was put out in the street millenia ago---such that a house sparrow and passer domesticus cannot be one and the same or for that matter that a house sparrow and a bird cannot be one and the same...lol...lots of hoots on this site).

    i will confess, however, to thinking outside the box in my play and that is also rare on this site.

    ---------------------------------​
    yes, it is without a doubt true in terms of "raw numbers"

    as is the case however with much that is true, overmuch can be made of it!... as i have previously pointed out, such a frothy aphorism is in fact "too clever by half"

    compare this:

    http://www.crapsforum.com/threads/the-worst-that-could-happen-financially-lifetime.8064/#post-56258

    with my $500 loss last week

    make no mistake, while i was not at all happy with the loss, and while both my 1974 initiation and last week's loss calculate in my "One Big Session" compared to my raw ecstasy with the 1974 experience and my current financial situation, last week's loss was like, "meh"

    in short the utility of money outweighs it all.

    tom p
     
    #77
  18. The Midnight Skulker, Oct 27, 2016

    The Midnight Skulker

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    This "all in at the beginning" approach actually gives you the best chance to double your stake, assuming your bet pays even money and has a probability of winning close to 50% (e.g. do or don't Pass or Come). In a negative expectation game, variance is your friend; without it you cannot win. A single bet maximizes variance. The trap of such a strategy is to have the discipline to leave after that one bet is resolved, win or lose.
    During the time period when I was able to get to a casino a couple times a month I would never make a room reservation so as not to be "locked" into staying the night if things went especially well or totally to pot. Rather I would go prepared to stay the night.
     
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  19. betwthelines, Oct 27, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    three ways to read your question, i guess...

    first of all nothing is ever "guaranteed" with any strategy...neither a loss nor a win..just for example on the "do" side it is always theoretically possible to crap out any and all winnings...on the dark side, same thing: 7 or 11 everything away...

    secondly, you are not "guaranteed" to lose (setting aside and begging my earlier question of lose "since when?" this shooter? the last 10 shooters? the beginning of this session? this week? this year?)...re-read the Tough Craps Fantasy...it is theoretically possible to win every bet until you have exhausted the willingness of every bank you can find to book your next bet, so big is the bet amount (benny binion after all being fucking dead and big corporations running the show now)...theoretically possible, that is, like it is theoretically possible to make 300 rolls without a 7 showing...

    but setting aside absurd fantasies the TC player's bet progression garners a "profit" as you call it after as few as 2 odds wins...that the progression continues is in line with the Primary Objective, which is to win HUGE.

    other than the nearly impossible fantasy outlined above, the only thing "guaranteed" is that the TC player will lose the biggest bet he ever makes in his life... such is the relentless nature of his progression.

    tom p
     
    #79
  20. TDVegas, Oct 27, 2016

    TDVegas

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    Ok..let me approach this differently.
    Tomp has arrived via Southwest Airlines on Tuesday night.
    Tomp has awoken Wednesday am from a sound sleep at Main Street Station...

    He is at the Grand by 9am Wednesday after a hearty breakfast....

    When does he "stop" (literal, not figurative) playing?...specifically.

    Or does he?
     
    #80
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2016