BELIEVER or LUCK

Discussion in 'Dice Influencing' started by eagleeye2, Nov 12, 2015.

  1. hartzehn22, Nov 16, 2015

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    i "know" that you ardently, fervently, in the bottom of your heart ,maybe even religiously believe that you have an advantage but you do not know this...otherwise---and no offense intended---you are just plain stupid not being out there making that very nice living for yourself at an endeavor that is just plain fun...

    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p[/QUOTE]

    You know Betweenthelines I really like your posts! I have to say I love the game of craps and the overwhelming edge that it has on each and every player that steps up to it's table. I don't associate myself with any religion but let's just say I'm a believer in advantage play albeit it difficult and grinding. I base that last sentence purely on my own experience at the craps table. I also don't consider myself stupid or naive but careful, cautious and rational minded with a twist of spontaneity. I also have enjoyed being a member of this forum. It's something I never intended on doing but I happened to run across in my down time while helping out an ailing family member.
     
    #121
  2. hartzehn22, Nov 16, 2015

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    oh yea...whoops that's why the number two is with the CO and the HO. lol.
     
    #122
    Bases loaded likes this.
  3. Onautopilot, Nov 16, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Of course there are many different betting strategies one could use. The Kelly type progression just protects you from the negative variance thing, at least to a great extent, while allowing for a reasonable profit expectation. It is definitely what I would employ if I knew I had a small advantage....negative variance can be mean sometimes! :)
     
    #123
  4. tabletop123, Nov 16, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Frank Scoblete has said many times that according to "pro test ", he has excellent on axis control. He stated that after 25years of Casino Gambling, the number "6" is his signature number. He stated that even though he is a 6/8 bettor, he will often times bet only the "6". (Ho hum) . Maybe Frank will chime in.
     
    #124
  5. DeMango, Nov 16, 2015

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Unless he is selling something, he won't!
     
    #125
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  6. tabletop123, Nov 16, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    For those claiming to (only) been able toss reduce the seven, & Not knowing exactly where your advantage Is, seems like the Iron Cross Is a reasonable course if action. Once you get into thousands of rolls the math will prevail. ..... 1:6 . My only conclusion Is that the Di tosses a very small sample (maybe a 50-75) roll session, experiences positive short term Variance , & then reports on the Craps Forums: "Look what i did. I' m a Di!
     
    #126
  7. superrick, Nov 16, 2015

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    You know, I see GTC trained shooters all of the time, and just like Frank, they are only betting on the 6's and 8's, the problem with that is they are throwing nothing but out side numbers. When their roll is over with everybody else made money on their roll but they didn't make anything!
     
    #127
  8. betwthelines, Nov 16, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    lol, thanks...

    pay no attention to what i say, only to what i mean!:)

    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
     
    #128
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  9. Onautopilot, Nov 16, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Turn about is fair play....remember this in any future conversations we may have! :)
     
    #129
  10. hartzehn22, Nov 16, 2015

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    I'm not Frank but I would think that if you tracked your rolls long enough on a live craps table and you witnessed after 5 or 10 years the same number repeating over and over again in a greater frequency and it is with the same dice set...coupled with the opportunity to analyze your actual results from all those years of throwing the bones, then maybe you could claim a signature number. It makes perfect sense to me. How many DI's do that though? Not sure the number but I would say that it would be mandatory for any DI to incorporate such an analysis into their own personal play while shooting to ascertain if they could in fact claim any kind of an advantage. You have to know your skill set with the dice and then have a betting system that reflects or capitalizes on your tiny bit of skill otherwise you are dead in the 1 Hydrogen and 2 oxygens!
     
    #130
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  11. wonko33, Nov 16, 2015

    wonko33

    wonko33 Member

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    It might still not be enough to overcome the house edge, some of the bets on the iron cross have pretty high house edge no? Like the field and the 5?
     
    #131
    hartzehn22 likes this.
  12. TDVegas, Nov 16, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    OK, I'll bite...what is this **specific** advantage that you have analyzed and hold over the casino?

    If your skill set is sniping a number...why do you need a betting system? You simply bet the number. I'm confused as to why you need a "system" and what is that system?
     
    #132
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2015
  13. hartzehn22, Nov 16, 2015

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    Hi TDV,

    I look at "sniping" a number and my betting system as one and the same. Although the sniping is not a hop bet in my betting system. It is a placed bet. Granted, I don't push a button and voila, my signature number (s) occur but this is what I'm hoping for. In a nut shell, I bet a distinct amount of numbers that are always the same numbers depending on the dice set used and hope that one of those numbers hits. It gets even better when more than one of those numbers hits before I seven out. It's that simple. End of story. I don't bet like this on any one else but myself.
     
    #133
  14. hartzehn22, Nov 20, 2015

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    Honestly it doesn't matter the exact percentage it just has to be a "small" advantage. Yes, that is all it takes. How do you achieve this? As an advantage player or DI, you know your specific numbers and you attempt to do the obvious and hit more of those specific numbers while decreasing the 7's appearance.
     
    #134
  15. eagleeye2, Nov 21, 2015

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    Right On hartzehn22...

    Small percentage advantages dictate a Win & Loss scenario, just as the Casino's small advantage dictates a Loss & Win scenario for the Player.
    My advice, scan the table, follow those shooters that appear to be in a Win & Loss Scenario, while skipping those shooters that appear to be in a Loss & Win scenario.

    Keep in mind that neither the Casino or Player can WIN all of the time!
    eagleeye2
     
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