BELIEVER or LUCK

Discussion in 'Dice Influencing' started by eagleeye2, Nov 12, 2015.

  1. eagleeye2, Nov 16, 2015

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    TDV ~ You ought to re-read & Comprehend the last Paragraph of my post, DUH!

    ""Yet, the Nay Sawyers on Craps here, post as if a DI Wins Every Hand, and can call their every shot, when in fact the DI has only a small % advantage over the Casino. Therein comes Betting Strategy, which the DI must also employ to win consistently.""
    Yes, Dave G CT is telling it like it is for the DI, not as the Nay Sawyers here Post.


    Nufgf Said!

    eagleeye2
     
    #101
  2. tabletop123, Nov 16, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    $5 tables? Wrong! I'm still trying to find $3 tables! Lol.
     
    #102
  3. Dave G Ct, Nov 16, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    TD

    I am not loading up on any point of my roll. If it progresses I will press conservatively. If the 4 & 10 do not show then I hope my PL bet Wins. But then again it is me shooting the Dice. In a good place lol
     
    #103
  4. TDVegas, Nov 16, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Yeah, you're not getting it. If you have a KNOWN advantage over the casino, that advantage can be used in conjunction with a Kelly progression. No one said winning every hand. As long as you have skewed the edge, you would build up bankroll to coincide with KNOWN advantage play and eventually you become a whale.

    Obviously this line of thinking is over your head and you just don't seem to understand that an edge is an edge....and can be exploited for maximum value. It becomes a war of attrition where you have a slight edge exploited for maximum value.

    The MIT team wasnt playing $10-$25 hands when they saw an edge.
     
    #104
  5. black3car, Nov 16, 2015

    black3car

    black3car Member

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    For the record in MY post I said no such thing about a DI "calling every shot" in fact I even pointed out that some DI'ers mention something about having success 3% of the time. I also said I would be willing to give quite a bit of margin of error to the DI. At the end of the day a DI'er should be trying to roll certain numbers depending on the bets the Di'er has on the table. So he is looking for a predictable outcome because he can influence the dice.

    However, just as you said, right away you take to an extreme and say something about calling every shot. All I want a Di'er to say is "yes...I influence the dice and the way I play is I bet in a certain way because I know I have a better chance to win because my numbers are going to come up because I influence the dice" Frankly, I have heard nor seen no Di'er willing to say that. If one would say that, I would be willing to meet up with them in Las Vegas the first full week in April to observe.

    All it takes is common sense. Just watch the dice hit the table. That is when influence goes out the window. My last trip to Vegas I saw my first on axis throw. I saw it live and in person when I was playing and it was a thing of beauty. It truly was...until the dice hit the table, then chaos broke out with the dice. I don't care how close to the back wall, I don't care what target you use, I don't care if you stick the dice in between the felt and the diamonds, whatever you want to say, once the dice hit the table influence flies out the window....period!
     
    #105
  6. Dave G Ct, Nov 16, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    We all agree with you that if you have an edge you should exploit it. No one is running away from it. Now we can ask SR &:Harley how they are doing that
     
    #106
  7. TDVegas, Nov 16, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    If a DI has determined what the edge is... I say off to the races. I really don't think any of them have determined with any degree of accuracy what exactly the edge is....more 7's, less 7's, more #'s.

    Thin margins in the game of craps allows people to get hoodwinked into thinking they are influencing outcome...when in reality it's nothing more than short term variance.
     
    #107
  8. Dave G Ct, Nov 16, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    TD.
    Sometimes it is exactly that. A few months ago had a couple of exceptional hands- yes I intended to up my betting. Then came some lacklaster small losses plus a couple break evens and then a small win that I had posted recently. Yes TD when I see a couple back to back good trips I will do just that- you do not have to sell me on it. I recently finalized adjustments to my toss- so ready to go!
     
    #108
  9. tabletop123, Nov 16, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Most Di' s are claiming that they hit more 6 & 8's than probabilities dictate, because it's allegedly the easiest (box number) toss hit. Then you get a few thay are claiming longer consistently longer hands than 1:6 , but their numbers are all over the place (iron cross maybe) . Now, this 10 & 4 stuff....... You've got me on that one. Must take a real gifted shooter toss consistently defeat probabilities on the 10\4!
     
    #109
  10. Onautopilot, Nov 16, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    How much is a "small" percentage? And what actual advantage is expected....specific numbers, less 7's, etc.?

    If a DI has the answers to those two questions, I can develop a betting strategy that will almost certainly make them a LOT of money.
     
    #110
  11. superrick, Nov 16, 2015

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    No one has an edge on craps, if you would stop reading all of the fiction you would see the light, but in your little world of practicing craps on your bed and going to the casino in a while, or three times a year maybe the variance of the game will be off and you can walk out a $75 winner.

    But the truth be told, it was just luck on your part and “you can't see the forest for the trees”

    Dave, once again Mp is just a fiction writer! See this post that I just put up below. Heavy, Irishsitter, and many others alreadly know that Mp is just a fiction writer, but you and a few others still believe in fairy tales.

    http://www.crapsforum.com/threads/s...vor-of-the-month-club.10760/page-5#post-78569

    It's hell when the weather is bad in Vegas, I'm stuck here on my computer, now I know how the great fiction writer must feel like. When he is always hiding behind his computer!
     
    #111
  12. hartzehn22, Nov 16, 2015

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    Good point and question OAP. I think a successful DI can have the smallest percentage of an advantage and that is all you need. Combine this with less 7's and one or two numbers that consistently hit outside of the expected probability, i.e., that hit with a greater frequency than expected and you can make money. You could develop a betting strategy that jives with the DI that is creating that small advantage and this could be your craps advantage play. You strictly stay with a betting system that includes only the signature number or numbers that fall outside the expected probabilities and the DI goes to work minimizing normal distribution of the big Red and increasing the frequency of one or two numbers.
     
    #112
  13. hartzehn22, Nov 16, 2015

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    TDV- you don't need a great hand in craps to be a successful DI with a successful DI betting strategy. All you need to know is what YOUR own advantage as a DI is when shooting at the craps table and you bet accordingly. Often a roll of 3-6 numbers will suffice in a craps advantage if you know your advantage and you are betting accordingly in congruence with what you know as your edge.
     
    #113
  14. wonko33, Nov 16, 2015

    wonko33

    wonko33 Member

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    If DI exists, and I am not talking sniping numbers but just influencing some appearances of certain numbers.

    I think the only reasonable advantage would be if they could hit 6 or 8 more frequently. Those having the lower house edge to overcome.

    If the shooter was reducing the amount of 7s by a small margin, yes it would help all multiple roll bets by a bit, but if the 7s are lower because of an increase of let's say non box numbers or the 4 and 10, those house edges are just too high to overcome, the shooter would need a pretty noticeable influence to help there.
     
    #114
  15. Onautopilot, Nov 16, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    The DI is faced with a bit of a dilemma. A very small advantage, even if known, would be difficult to exploit without a substantial bankroll, and still trying to stay under the radar.

    A 1% advantage....for every $100 of action, your expected profit is $1, and you are still facing the variance of the game. And you only have that advantage when you are shooting the dice. To be of any real value, you would need to be betting thousands on each decision. Even at 2-3% it would be difficult, and still remain "invisible".

    Even with a 5% advantage, using a Kelly criterion betting scheme, which allows you to profit, and still remain fairly safe from a negative variance, would require a large bankroll, and time, to be of substantial value.

    In a Kelly type scheme, you wager the percent of your bankroll that equals the expected advantage. If you had a $1,000 bankroll, you would bet $50 on each wager that carried the 5% advantage. You would expect to make $2.50 per decision. At 30 or so, of your own roll decisions, that would be $75 expected profit. It takes about 4 rolls on average to resolve a decision. That would be about 120 of your own rolls.

    As your bankroll increases, and you continue the 5% of your bankroll wager, your expected profit increases likewise. So, with a large enough advantage, and using this strategy, you could make a decent profit, given enough time at the table, betting only on your known advantage.

    I think 5% is a leap.....a big leap, but the opportunity is there if you have the money, the time, and the discipline to follow the plan. But when you get up to betting large amounts over long periods of time, you will be "noticed" at some point, if you are winning consistently.

    I'm a skeptic, but the opportunity is there, if all the pieces are in place! If there is someone doing this, they are not going to be on this forum "telling" you about it!
     
    #115
  16. betwthelines, Nov 16, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    if you "know" your advantage in the sense of true knowledge, for example, that 2 molecules of carbon and one of oxygen make water or that 2+2=4 (<gasp!> sorry to bring in math, tho some maintain [erroneously imo] that this is not "math" but merely arithmetic, which in any case is not relevant to craps other than adding up the number of pips displayed) or that the theory of gravity has encountered no contradicting exceptions or etc, then you should not be posting here but rather touring multitudes of casinos and making a very nice living for yourself...

    take a look at the palaces the casinos have built in vegas and elsewhere with their KNOWN edge...

    i "know" that you ardently, fervently, in the bottom of your heart ,maybe even religiously believe that you have an advantage but you do not know this...otherwise---and no offense intended---you are just plain stupid not being out there making that very nice living for yourself at an endeavor that is just plain fun...

    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
     
    #116
  17. hartzehn22, Nov 16, 2015

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    I respect what you are saying but I have a different take on a different betting strategy. It's very different then the one you explained here but I do respect what you are saying. I prefer not to discuss it for obvious reasons.
     
    #117
  18. hartzehn22, Nov 16, 2015

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    I too respect what you are saying and I like what you have said about the 2 molecules of carbon and one of oxygen that makes water...you are also right about the palaces the casinos have built in vegas with their KNOWN edge. I respect the edge that every casino has as well.
     
    #118
  19. TDVegas, Nov 16, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Still doesn't answer the basic premise of his question/comment in the 3rd paragraph.
     
    #119
  20. Bases loaded, Nov 16, 2015

    Bases loaded

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    CO2 is Carbon dioxide molecule (two atoms of oxygen)

    H
    2O is water - two atoms of hydrogen
     
    #120
    betwthelines and hartzehn22 like this.
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