BELIEVER or LUCK

Discussion in 'Dice Influencing' started by eagleeye2, Nov 12, 2015.

  1. Onautopilot, Nov 15, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Just add the two together......50% more sometimes, 0% other times = X% all times combined.. Do the math, then if it is still a positive % more, then go make your fortune!
     
    #81
  2. TDVegas, Nov 15, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Sometimes...yes
    Other times...no

    Every random roller has uttered these same words when asked "how's it going"?

    Certainly not leveraging too much on "sometimes yes and no"....
     
    #82
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2015
  3. tabletop123, Nov 15, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Onautopilot, i agree! Now, you know a little bit about the old school hustles, such as shooting Pool, three card monte, Sleight of hand poker players (wiping the forehead with a handkerchief as if You're sweating, when in actuality, you' re hiding a card (preferably an Ace) in the handkerchief. These were skills that were "guarded" at every expense! In other words you wouldn't walk into a pool hall & announce: "i' m a hundred ball runner, now which one of you "Marks" wants to get "busted" today? Times have certainly changed, & it seems as though today' s hustlers just can' t seem to keep their mouth closed! Possessing a skill that could possibly extract thousands off of the tables, & professing your skillon an open forum........ I just don't get it! Unless of course the underlying reason Is to recruit students for another Di' ng class! Even if so, why not just "hog' all the money for yourself, & let others fend for themselves?
     
    #83
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  4. wonko33, Nov 15, 2015

    wonko33

    wonko33 Member

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    It's my current game on the Ipad - Aw Craps - no I did not roll these on my bed
     
    #84
  5. driglaz, Nov 15, 2015

    driglaz

    driglaz Member

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    6 times a year is nothing.....use a moving average of 100 to 200 sessions or a 90 day window of recent activity to get your averages ... The nice thing about documenting your results is the data is there to review. .... .We know TD will never admit that it is possible to use DI to to tilt the odds in your favor - it may be difficult to achieve and maintain but for TD to admit it is not happening here.
     
    #85
  6. hartzehn22, Nov 15, 2015

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    I don't think any naysayer will admit any kind of "advantage play" until they are able to prove to themselves that it is possible and that takes tracking results and tracking your live play to see if in fact you have an advantage based on your rolls. I know that DI is possible but I don't think all DI's including myself, can have an advantage all the time BUT if you have a slight advantage and bet smart based on what you know is more likely with a specific dice set, this can play to your advantage. TD can't admit that DI exists because it's not in his reality or in his craps experience. I understand his point of view.
     
    #86
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  7. betwthelines, Nov 15, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    this is exactly what i proposed a while back as an acceptable (to me) indication of the efficacy of DI...

    TWO trials of 5,000 rolls each under live casino conditions by an avowed, accomplished dice influencer is all that i would need...the DI would need to state up front---and this is critical---what he or she is trying to accomplish: avoidance of 7s, a preponderance of 4s and 10s, more 6s, WHATEVER...

    in my trial the DI would be given every benefit of the doubt...he would be allowed to "call his shots" and by that i mean if he is having an "off day" or "off session" or "off roll" or not feeling comfortable or confident or for ANY REASON, he could say "this roll is off" and i would be perfectly fine with that and that roll or series of rolls would be "off' and not count toward our 5,000 roll total...IOW the counted 5000 rolls would be ANY OF HIS ROLLS THAT HE WANTED THEM TO BE or felt comfortable with...On The Other Hand he would THUS be allowed no excuses...

    it would be a no bullshit trial..."on axis", "glued together", "bouncy this", "bouncy that" "monkey shot", "beautiful toss", SRR. your beautiful ballerina twirl, all of your DI glossary and jargon mean jack shit to me...what do the dice land on is all that matters...the di would need to state what he is trying to do and then do it...

    the onus is not on the skeptics to prove anything and i am an extreme skeptic of DI and my guess is a 2nd 5000 roll trial would not be necessary...but a successful first 5000 roll trial would certainly "raise an eyebrow" on me...a successful second trial and i would admit that "there just might be something to this DI" at least for this one gentleman or lady and probably a very few others...

    at a fairly commonly accepted average of 120 rolls per hour (well wincraps defaults to that anyway) this trial would entail over 83 hours of play & might take well over a year to complete...but so what? the claims are about a hundred years old...

    but we all know it aint gonna happen so on to the next hundred years of the circle...

    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
     
    #87
  8. black3car, Nov 15, 2015

    black3car

    black3car Member

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    I must disagree slightly with most thoughts on how dice influence would be believable. I really don't care what the results are after 100, 1000, 10,000, or 100,000 rolls. What I care about is what dice influence is all about. I want to see a DI say to me "I'm going to influence the dice to roll what I'm betting on in the next 4 rolls consistenly". Heck I would even give them the next 8 rolls.

    Dice influence is all about making the dice come up showing a number that the DI'er has bet on. Nothing more, nothing less. And it has to be fairly consistent for me to believe it. I would be willing to give quite a margin of error here because if I remember right some DI'ers are saying something about a 3% success rate. I don't even buy that.

    I don't care if a DI'er says he can prove influence by tracking a certain number of rolls...who cares! I care when the money is on the table and the dice are being thrown. Prove the outcome is predictable influencers! Prove you KNOW when a number or is coming when you roll. It ain't gonna happen...no more than a it happens for a random roller...or no more than a feeling comes. It just ain't!

    If any DI'er here on this board is going to be in Vegas the first full week of April I will meet you and just observe. You tell me consistently when you are throwing the dice and betting what numbers are going to come up and if you are right I will believe it. For the record, predictability and dice influence are a contradiction in terms in my opinion.
     
    #88
  9. TDVegas, Nov 15, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    if they could actually do what they say they can do...they would all be rich. How come they aren't? They would also play a LOT more than they actually claim.

    By saying they are DI, Many use it to justify in their own mind why they are playing a negative expectation game. Many use the excuse "I wouldn't play a game I can't beat".....but they won't stop playing even if you showed them they aren't winning.

    DI is good justification to keep playing craps....regardless of results.
     
    #89
  10. Dave G Ct, Nov 15, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Black3car
    Gee you are not looking for too much are you. DI does not work that way. A DI is looking for 1-3 good hands . If a great hand develops so much the better. A DI may have several mediocre hands in which he is not hurt much. The 4 & 10's come usually in bunches. No one knows what will develop on each hand. A big picture thing
     
    #90
  11. Dave G Ct, Nov 15, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Meant to say he hopes he is not hurt
     
    #91
  12. black3car, Nov 15, 2015

    black3car

    black3car Member

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    Sounds a lot like what the normal every day craps player wants too. I'm very confused. So you are looking for 1-3 good hands but will not predict anything when you are throwing the dice? Ok, I'm trying to limit my appearances on this subject because quite frankly, it is ridiculous. No more comment from me...carry on.
     
    #92
  13. tabletop123, Nov 15, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Bullshit! Di' s are looking to get lucky just like everyone else! Matter of fact, Di' s (are) everyone else. No distinction between the two (results wise) . One has a beautiful toss, the other one doesn't!
     
    #93
  14. TDVegas, Nov 15, 2015

    TDVegas

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    Sounds like every random player.
    The term "if a great hand develops".......? Huh?

    You act as if you are holding pocket aces in poker and hoping for a great hand to "develop". Craps doesn't work that way. "Great hands" are past tense in craps. You don't know when they might happen or die in their tracks.
     
    #94
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  15. betwthelines, Nov 15, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    finally some profundity on this bored...the most wisdom i have seen here in quite some time...i have incorporated part of this into my signature below in fact...

    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
     
    #95
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  16. Dave G Ct, Nov 15, 2015

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    Great hands do not materialize that often. But hands in the 9-16 roll range must be capitalized on.
     
    #96
  17. superrick, Nov 15, 2015

    superrick

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    dave, so what you are saying is that you are just looking to get lucky like any old so-called random roller!
    What happens when you have nothing but bad hands dave?
    What makes you say the 4's and 10's comes in bunches and what happens when their not coming and you have them bet?

    Are you saying that DI's have mediocre hands because that is what happens to you?
     
    #97
  18. TDVegas, Nov 15, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Uh....all well and fine after the fact. When the roll hits 8, are you suggesting to "load up" at that point because 9-16 is coming? Cue me in and I'll bring the deed to my home.

    Each roll is independent. Just as easy for a 7 to show after 8 rolls as it is after 2 rolls.....or 12 rolls....or 16 rolls.

    Hindsight is a great thing, eh?
     
    #98
  19. eagleeye2, Nov 16, 2015

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    Dave G CT, You are EXACTLY RIGHT, despite what the Nay Sawyers here post!

    1) Take Blackjack, in the "old days" with a Single Deck & one player @ the table, one could generate about a 2% Advantage Via Dual level Card Counting!

    2) Most BJ players never got to Dual Level Card Counting, i.e. where one changes the way they PLAY as well as Bet, into Positive Card Counts, makes the maximum advantage only about 1%.

    3) Casino Payout change to 6 to 5, from the OLD 3 to 2 Payout on Black Jack Costs the Player 1.4% of bets, resulting in a negative advantage to the average card Counter & which is additive to the 1% disadvantage for the average player.

    4) But Casino's did not stop there, Single Deck BJ is all but DEAD in Casino's. The move to Double Deck Costs about 50% of the single deck game advantage & with 6 to 5 Payout, results in negative Expectations to the Card Counter, even with a single Player at the table.

    5) Casino's also control the # of tables open, closing most tables with a single player, etc.; attempting to fill the tables with players.

    6) Most Casino's with single or double decks, deal a maximum of 60% of the Cards, further reducing any potential advantage.

    7) Casino's employing Automatic Shufflers further reduce random streaks of winning & Continuous Shufflers eliminate any possible advantage to a Card Counter, while minimizing streaks.

    8. Yet, the folks continue to Play Black jack in Casino's. Yes, with "LUCK" one can sometimes win at Casino Black Jack, but will consistently loose as they are playing against a Negative Expectation, considering the above, I no longer play Black jack in Casino's.

    Yet, the Nay Sawyers on Craps here, post as if a DI Wins Every Hand, and can call their every shot, when in fact the DI has only a small % advantage over the Casino. Therein comes Betting Strategy, which the DI must also employ to win consistently.

    Yes, Dave G CT is telling it like it is for the DI, not as the Nay Sawyers here Post.

    eagleeye2
     
    #99
  20. TDVegas, Nov 16, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    You have no idea what your % advantage is. If you did, a Kelly progression would be used in conjunction with said KNOWN advantage and then you are off to the races....Boats, cars, homes.

    You guys are still congregating on the $5 tables.
     
    #100
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