# As far as I can tell

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Anthony Sipes, Sep 12, 2017.

1. von duck, Sep 12, 2017

### von duck Member

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You are completely wrong, and think about who is saying this. The correct answer is -1.388888%. And, this number would fall, depending on the size of your lay bets.

#21
Last edited: Sep 12, 2017
2. KokomoJoe4, Sep 12, 2017

### KokomoJoe4 Member

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You have a flat bet push for every point established, regardless of whether it comes back or not.

For every come out 2, 3, 7 and 11 you also have a push on the flats.

One in 36 12's computes to 2.78% flat loser, better than 5% vig, but not -1.39%. Of course there will be variance. It always dictates our actual results.

Is it "better" to offset your come out Don't losers by using the D-D and taking your chance as favorite to win less than you wager on the odds laid, or is it better to take your chances with the immediate losers without a hedge, and try to offset these losers by parlaying your come out winners?

We don't know what is better in advance, we have to see how things play out.

The -1.39% you describe, and which you do not derive, will not necessarily decrease with your odds bets. They are favored to win, but sorry, not guaranteed.

#22
3. von duck, Sep 13, 2017

### von duck Member

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Normalize 36 come-outs. If you are playing the D/D at say, a \$5 table, those 36 come-outs, would require 36-\$5 do bets, and 36-\$5 don't bets. That's 72 \$5 bets, every bet pushes-off, with the exception of 1 \$5- Do bet 5 divided by 360 = .013888888. You do not lose 1 bet in 36, you lose 1/2 of a bet in 36 come-outs. This 1/2 bet loss now entitles you to make 24 lay bets 0 vig. \$5 divided by 24 = 20.8 cents per lay bet. If you get 10x odds, then to make this easy, lay \$60 on all 24 points. Normally these same 24 bets, if played as lay bets would cost you \$42. That's \$5 instead of \$42. Total action for this scenario is \$1800. 5 divided by 1800 = .002777777.so H/A= 0.27777% about 1/4 of one percent, with the 7, always in YOUR corner, and come-out variance minimized. This play is a little boring to some, as they prefer the "excitement", of a fast "nut clipping". .

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4. von duck, Sep 13, 2017

### von duck Member

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In regards to your final statement, probability, is not based on any guarantee. It is based on the expected result. Nobody said anything was guaranteed. The guy was asking for the "best" way to ally, the 7, with the least collateral damage, and I think this is it. There are NO guarantees, in craps..

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5. basicstrategy777, Sep 13, 2017

### basicstrategy777 Member

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I love ya pal, but that does not mean you're not a pisser.

Always have been.....always will be.

A pisser.

777

#25
yacraps and betwthelines like this.
6. KokomoJoe4, Sep 13, 2017

### KokomoJoe4 Member

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1/72 also equals 0.01389, which is half of 0.0278, since you lose only half of the one in 36 D-D bets.

So yes, -1.38% is better than either -2.78% and -5.0%, and is marginally better or worse than the -1.41% and -1.36% numbers obtained playing one of the more straightforward systems without the hedging, where all three round off to -1.4%.

Boredom is the norm with my play. There ain't much excitement making one bet at a time.

#26
7. von duck, Sep 13, 2017

### von duck Member

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I am not familiar with these systems, by name. Check post # 23 in this thread, and see how this compares to the two. Post 23 is my best answer to the problem,I think it does what you want something to do.. You can make the lay bets whatever you want, I recommend some multiple of six. An added bonus is that the house, absolutely hates this strategy, so this increases the "fun" exponentially. .

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Last edited: Sep 13, 2017
8. The Comeback Kid, Sep 13, 2017

### The Comeback Kid Member

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Au Contraire. You may not see it now & that's fine, but my opinion has merit, so stand it shall, for the benefit of World Peace. Perhaps next time after asking Whatcha Think? you should include "...as long as I agree with it".

I may be completely wrong, but... "As far as I can tell" is an asking thread. The question deserves an answer. "Hey guys, I grind bkz it seems grinding's the best way to eek out some wins, but honestly, it sucks. Is there a better way?" With all due respect to Mr. Patrick, I offered a way to think about it from my experience, without grinding. But you're a smart guy & I should have offered more logic. My bad.

...so while we're still on friendly terms.
Money's a heavy subject, which means resistance & that my friend, (IMHO) is the only thing that keeps us from what we want. When you can effectively take money out of the equation, you'll win more than you can stuff in your pockets. In the end, it's not the thing, but how you feel about the thing.

Every manifestation begins with a thought; change your thought, you change your manifestation. I'm not saying throw the dog out, just consider how you look at the pooch & maybe you'll discover a fun, easy way to win \$\$\$, sans grinding.
But if you don't, no skin off my...snout.

You've got to understand something. I've had all the material things I could ever want. Everything. The things I want money can't buy: health, freedom, love, happiness. I don't care about the money, so I have no fear.” - Archie Karas who in 1992 orchestrated the "Run" going from \$50 to \$40 million.

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yacraps and KokomoJoe4 like this.
9. Mssthis1, Sep 13, 2017

### Mssthis1 Member

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Archie Karas has the ultimate case of "small dog syndrome". Is he still making license plates or did he get out?

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yacraps likes this.
10. James Hall, Sep 14, 2017

### James Hall Member

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would that be 0.05 %

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11. Dave G Ct, Sep 23, 2017

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