As far as I can tell

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Anthony Sipes, Sep 12, 2017.

  1. Anthony Sipes, Sep 12, 2017

    Anthony Sipes

    Anthony Sipes Member

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    As far as I can tell in Craps you need the 7 as your friend, but at the same time never once as your enemy. That excludes the Do side of things. It also excludes most of the Don't side. The only way you can have the 7 as your friend and never your enemy is playing some variation of the Patrick System or the Ricochet.
    They are both a grind but truly winning over the long haul is. Whatcha think?
     
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  2. KokomoJoe4, Sep 12, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    I am not familiar with Patrick's proposed play and as result will not comment on it, but I have read others on this site who are not at all impressed with his methods.

    Concerning befriending the seven, the only way to do this eternally is to Lay number(s).

    IF results show exactly as predicted by the structure of the dice, you will be behind exactly 5% of your winning outlay every time you play. This is called vigorish.

    IF you allow for some variability, to be expected with a random event such as the roll of the dice :eek:, some sessions will end as winner. There will also be times when you lose more than the expected 5%.

    In theory, friendly sevens sounds good, but in reality, you must pay in order to obtain the status of favorite, and on top of this, you do not always win when favored.
     
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  3. KokomoJoe4, Sep 12, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    OK, NOT the only way. You could of course hop the reds on some or every roll.
     
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  4. basicstrategy777, Sep 12, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    If one side is financially superior to the other side, why is that not touted by all craps cognociente and played by everybody ?

    777
     
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  5. The Comeback Kid, Sep 12, 2017

    The Comeback Kid

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    Do you take your car out for a grind? How much fun is that? If applying the accelerator & brake at the same time is your bag, then grind on & I wish you the best of luck.

    Personally, I don't want to be busy going nowhere. Reminds me of a place I used to work where everyone was busy doing nothing, as the ship was sinking.

    For me it's a timing issue. Accelerate when the coast is clear, apply the break when on the rumble strip. Then right yourself & get back on the clear, straight & narrow. Ya gotta feel it. One informs the other, but they're not mutually exclusive.

    Regardless of outcomes, you keep the 7 on friendly terms, by not making it your enemy.
    If you don't think your emotions set the tone of what happens in your experience, then we're done here. But....happy grinding
     
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  6. KokomoJoe4, Sep 12, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Obviously, the come out 7's and 11's will be leaving you with a number of immediate losers, but I would MUCH prefer this Don't method to Laying since you actually will be paid even money with a winner, not 1:2. 2:3 or 5:6, all less 5%.
     
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  7. betwthelines, Sep 12, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    hm. interesting language.

    do you mean by "financially superior" the best chances mathematically?, if so, well that would be the dp or dc bets and backed up by odds of course.

    "played by everybody" is hyperbole but you know that...nothing is played by everybody nor should it be...one's play should be in accord with one's goals, which will differ person by person...but you know that too.

    the fact is that it is not "touted" by the "craps cognociente <sic>" is not totally true either... more often than not if nothing else at least a tip of the hat is given to it.

    heck, even the Tough Craps player only but very, very rarely plays these toughest of all bets...but he has tilted his millinery to it & has provided his reasons too around his own goals, sacrificing a few hundredths of a percent edge for the efficiency of the do side in winning HUGE...

    no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no...you misunderstand...he means fucking HUGE...would travel the world over to get his next bet in his insane progression.

    there is no win limit.

    tom p

    -g. geist: but his whole post is hyperbole
    --tom p: why, sure...that's perfectly fine...
    ---g. geist:
    ----tom p: difficult to pull off but he has accomplished it quite well
    -----g. geist: uh-huh
     
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  8. KokomoJoe4, Sep 12, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Agreed- no defined win limit. The limit defines itself with the first loss in the progression.
     
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  9. Anthony Sipes, Sep 12, 2017

    Anthony Sipes

    Anthony Sipes Member

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    Are you playing craps to have emotion and fun or are you playing craps to win money? If your focus is fun and emotions then you really don't have a dog in the race (this discussion)
     
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  10. Anthony Sipes, Sep 12, 2017

    Anthony Sipes

    Anthony Sipes Member

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    What doesn't have a win limit? I didn't bother putting that but I always have the same win goals and loss,limits. Win.goal of 20% and I have a strict loss limit of 40%
     
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  11. Mssthis1, Sep 12, 2017

    Mssthis1

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    To make any betting system work you need plenty of patience, realistic expectations, the ability to think outside the box, really deep pockets, and know you aren't going to win every time.
     
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  12. basicstrategy777, Sep 12, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    BTL...you are a pisser.

    By financially superior I meant that by playing Don't you will make more money than playing Do.

    What I was getting at was, if it is a fact that playing Don't means you make more money than playing Do , would not everybody want to play the way that, it is proven, would make you more money ?

    The fact is...neither side is financially superior to the other. Neither side give you an edge.....Finacially, they are equal.

    That is what I was trying to get at.

    Capisce.

    777
     
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  13. KokomoJoe4, Sep 12, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Not to step on your toes 777, but in fact the -1.36% house edge is slightly better for the Don't bettor than is the -1.41% against the Do bettor.

    BUT, even with that said, both are losers.

    We all know that while math is important, it is not all there is. Think variance.
     
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  14. badddoin, Sep 12, 2017

    badddoin

    badddoin Member

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    Also, some people have a real aversion to laying odds, even though, in the long run, it's mathematically exactly the same - the odds are a dead-nuts-even bet, on BOTH sides.
     
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  15. KokomoJoe4, Sep 12, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    As the Dice Dr. states, laying the odds on a bet on which you are favored is a great bet. In fact, he states it is the ONLY situation where he will use as high of odds as they go.

    Personally, I would never do this, what with the lay 100 to win 50, but I am NOT a Don't bettor.

    By comparison, he states it is crazy to take more than single odds when playing the Do. To each his own, but I disagree with that as well.
     
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  16. Mssthis1, Sep 12, 2017

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    If you ever are lucky enough to be at a table where someone is waving off 6 & 8 DC bets ask if you can take that action. Not a guaranteed winner but the person who placed the bet assumed most of the risk already. You can always hedge it with a place bet if you're real risk adverse.
     
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  17. KokomoJoe4, Sep 12, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    you can actually turn this "picked up" bet into a guaranteed winner, by adding the right sized place bet to oppose it.
     
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  18. betwthelines, Sep 12, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    exactly what i said...well, ok, almost..the don't is proven only to lose less money rather than make more money but since i quite understand that you are being rhetorical here anyway, we can certainly let that inadvertant slip slide.

    exactly what was it that you did not understand by "do you mean by 'financially superior' the best chances mathematically?, if so, well that would be the dp or dc bets..." hmmm? sure, i posed it as a question but answered it correctly--- just checking, it was what i thought you meant, answered it with pretty much what you came back with here.

    we disagree where in this? i fail to see your point other than, yes, i am a pisser...lol
    No.

    the utility of money or one's goals always trumps the strict math of the game...i tried to get this thru to you with the Tough Craps player example --- EVEN HE, of all peoples, does not make the toughest bets for reasons of his objectives.

    i believe your confusion lies where it always has: you erroneously divide bank craps players in to two camps, those who "play by the math" and all others (DI, voodoo, whatever you want to call it)...never mind that NO ONE plays strictly by the math, not even the Tough Craps player.

    but of course you are being coy, perfectly fine...but you and i both know that the math is a long run proposition and we both know that ---with but one (known) exception in the entire world ---peoples play in the short term, usually a session at a time and hope for "good" short term variance...hell, some will lose $42, take a potty break, and come back to the rail, deeming it a whole new session.

    here's an example:
    of course i could be wrong but somehow i think that mr sipes is not finished playing bank craps for the rest of his life...he like all but the One are playing in the short term...and-a course ol' top is example numero uno.


    capeesh?

    ---------------------------------------
    now, 7s, we could go on with this--makes me no difference one way or the other, btw--but you and i also know that it will all end up in the same place that it always has...

    we simply have to continue to agree to disagree nicely & pleasantly.

    whatta pisser, eh?

    tom p

    "It's All One Big Session...And Then You Die"
    --tom p, ca. 2010
     
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  19. von duck, Sep 12, 2017

    von duck

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    Don't forget the Dewy, saves many $ over standard lay play, I thought we covered this?
     
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  20. KokomoJoe4, Sep 12, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    Yeah, my bad. This takes you to -2.78% instead of the standard -%5 vig.

    Shows that we guys who never play the Don't don't know WTF we speak of about it.
     
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