Anyone ever tried to bet the Marty in the field.

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by offaxis, Feb 5, 2016.

  1. The Midnight Skulker, Jul 27, 2016

    The Midnight Skulker

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    The catch there is the rate of resolution. Field resolves on every roll, place bets every 3-4 rolls depending on the number placed. This is a classic case where comparing standard HEs (HE/decision vs. HE/roll) skews an analysis of survival risk of ruin.
     
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  2. James Hall, Jul 27, 2016

    James Hall

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    the field bet has some redeeming features
    one guy I know says it is his entertainment bet
    says it's fun
    BTL says "fun is good"
     
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  3. Craps Poopshoot, Jul 29, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    Its 44.45% that the roll will be a field win. Some loss progression betting method could be worked out where you recover losses fairly easily and pull profit.

    Below is a video on how to beat blackjack with a loss progression method. The same concept can be used for the field bet in craps given that it is relatively the same in its win/loss frequency.



    There are other videos on this guys page that if you watch them you can then figure out how to play a loss progression.

    The criticism of martingale or grand martingale, is that it is very steep and it is looking for that ONE win to bring it all back. Most people are terrified of this method and reject this method out of hand, however they fail to see the concept and philosophy behind it and that it is just an example of a loss progression betting method, but not one to always and only use.

    Now, the players I know who are successful casino gamblers use loss progressions all the time. What those exactly are and how they play them out, I won't go in to details. For those of you who are chicken shits and run from any sort of loss progression method are doomed to going nowhere in your gaming. Those who have the balls to play such methods can go on quite the ride of wins and losses, however they are rewarded in the end.

    Now as the Gambling Professor says, the odds of you losing eight straight in a row is astronomical! But it can happen so you best have the bankroll to handle that.

    That there in lays the problem, is that most player (even those who want to go fulltime) don't have the bankroll to handle such losses or to make the wins mean anything.




     
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  4. lone irish digit, Jul 29, 2016

    lone irish digit

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    I have seen it work and not work many times. I use a version on VP. Now one guy who started betting heavy lost his shirt on my toss playing the field Marty. I tossed 12 non-field numbers in a row (mostly 6 and 8s). After 6 or 7 numbers exhausted his rack, he started digging into his wallet until it was empty. He never said a word to me but when we left I had Barney get the car. (Let me add that he didn't do a fully Marty but had to stop around 6 losses. Then he was real woozy, kind of in a state of shock, and thinking a field number was due started digging into his wallet to try to recover some of his losses but it never happened). Also kind of surprising this guy was a middle aged red neck. Where he got that kind of money I haven't a clue but he sure was pissed when he was done.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 29, 2016
  5. Onautopilot, Jul 29, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    No problem, when we do the December thing, I'll go over it in detail. But it absolutely requires the triple on the 12 or 2. If I could ever find that promo that has triple on both, I would be there in an instant. I prefer to play it on the bubble, but Vegas has no bubble triple pay in the field....Reno does, and that is where I played it, and had "fun".

    It's not the Holy Grail, but it can be fun, at least so far it has been. But I know I will probably not be able to walk through the rain drops forever, and never get wet! :)
     
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  6. Onautopilot, Jul 29, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    The Martingale is the only "system" that is guaranteed to win.......IF, you had unlimited funds, and an unlimited table maximum bet.

    So, knowing that is not a realistic scenario, I look to modify it to some acceptable level of risk / reward, that still gives the highest expectation of session wins.

    Some I have played have a 99.9% win rate....BUT the bankroll to win goal ratio is extreme with that expected win rate.

    A lot of people do not understand that a Martingale type strategy can range from 100% bet escalation, all the way down to a 1% bet escalation, and still have the same expectation of a true Martingale....just less reward for risk. Smaller win goals.

    My "schemes" generally use a 5-10% escalation.

    They are very successful if variance does not fall outside a given number of standard deviations......which is expected to happen less than 1-5% of the time with most that I play.

    I could detail this a little further, but most craps players are not interested in risking $2000-$3,000 to win $50-$100. So I won't bother. :)
     
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  7. Craps Poopshoot, Jul 30, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    10% win is the goal for most pro gamblers for a session, and most play some variation of a martingale. Sure, the unthinkable could happen and they can lose a lot though the odds of that happening are slim and they have the bankroll to recover.

    I agree, no tourist or infrequent Craps player will ever play like this, so it is not really worth talking about. However, if you are going to the casino everyday and you got the bankroll, then this probably is something you want to learn.
     
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  8. The Midnight Skulker, Aug 2, 2016

    The Midnight Skulker

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    That is the key: having sufficient reserves to tide one over when the biological waste makes contact with the air circulation devices. I should think that would require having an additional source of income (e.g. investments, a "day job") to replenish the gambling account, or a well-funded gambling account to begin with (e.g. from a previous big win, an inheritance) so that each session stake is only a small portion of one's overall wealth.
    Wouldn't the opposite be the case? Cumulative probability is the reasoning behind playing a losing progression, namely that the probability of an event not occurring for a given number of trials decreases as the number of trials is increased...providing of course that event can ever occur. For example, the probability of losing eight consecutive Pass Line decisions is 0.004, or roughly one out of 229 series. Because of the negative expectation, however, the monetary loss on that rare occurrence more than offsets the monetary gains of all the wins, resulting in a net loss. While a daily and a monthly player playing one series per visit both have the same chance of winning on any given day, the daily player is expected to hit the wall within about 7½ months compared to 19 years for the monthly player. IOW expected value is a significant parameter for the daily player whereas probability of success is more significant for the monthly player.
     
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  9. Craps Poopshoot, Aug 2, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    About 18K to 20K is the minimum bankroll required to play a martingale sort of strategy with a goal of $1000 a day. This is not an absolute goal, but one that give you a guidepost as to where you are going. The bankroll IS NOT FOR LIVING EXPENSES. In addition to the bankroll, you need to have your daily bills covered by by other means and this could include the money generated from your bankroll but not the initial bankroll itself.

    You have to factor for the 'unthinkable happening' (about 0.4% chance of hitting the wall) in to your bankroll and expect for it to happen from time to time.

    Not all casinos will work for a martingale method due to the low table limits. Tribal casinos are notorious for low table limits to prevent exactly this sort of play. You have to assess the table and its limits and decide what martingale method you will use when playing on it.

    Most people won't play a straight-up martingale because the large bets that such a method requires terrifies them. There are other types of martingale methods that are less terrifying but more work and time at the tables, however I won't go in to any details about this in a public form and will leave that to the private gambling coaches who teach such things.

    All of the pro players i know use some type of martingale as their core betting strategy, and most pro players are only in the casino long enough to make their win goal. Even if they are living in the casino (and many do) once they hit their win goal for the day they are done. Its the pool, the Jacuzzi, dining with friends, seeing a show, or pool side lounging reading a book.
     
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  10. betwthelines, Aug 2, 2016

    betwthelines

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    ...and never returning to the casino...

    "It's All One Big Session...And Then You Die" might be too clever by half in the hum-drum, daily tourist and real "utility of money" world but it is absolutely 100% true in raw dollar amounts over anyone's lifetime (duh! it's a tautology...lol...clever though:cool:)

    put another way, there are no "pro" bank craps players...no one is making a living at a negative expectation game...

    absolutely, sure, no doubt, winning frequent, daily sessions and then hitting the pool is great fun but you ain't gonna make a reliable living at it!

    the idea that there is some "magic" in "quitting while you are ahead" at individual sessions is TOTALLY DELUSIONAL IF your conceit is making some sort of "long term profit" or making a living at bank craps...

    nope:
    It's All One Big Session...And Then You Die

    tom p
     
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  11. Onautopilot, Aug 2, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    Playing some type of Martingale strategy, all you have to do, is learn to dance through the rain drops without getting wet! :)
     
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  12. Freddyy, Aug 14, 2016

    Freddyy

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    Good idea. Get a 5k bankroll and they will send a jet for you.
     
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