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Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Dave G Ct, Jan 6, 2020.
The hand is over on a Come CO winner. Enough said.
It is NOT a matter of how MANY bets you win. It is a matter of how MUCH, you win! You win one hard-way in six, and you're a winner, assuming equal bets on each.
Some guys roll for a long time before the devil shows. That includes winning on numbers established through the come bet gateway and repeating pass line come out numbers. In fact, there are players on this board claiming "hands" exceeding 70. Your hero, the Mad Professor, claims Mega and Monster Hands that are much greater. Imagine that.
this is most certainly true. Both imply winning and it can be done if the number(s) bet on show before the devil. It don't matter if it's Pass LIne, Box, or Come Bet. So long as it repeats before the Devil shows.
Nice. 3 point molly. I like the play as a regular player.
#1, I think I can win with it with the small house edge.
#2, it offers some protection against early Red Devils.
#3, my attitude is a long enough roll will come around and the “protection” of the play might give you the opportunity to still be "in the game" rather than place/buy across who exhausted bankroll on early 7 outs.
My judgement as a regular....Obviously, it’s my own personal judgement based on some fairly numerous yearly sessions....but committing to too many bets?....I’m seeing these guys get wiped out far too often, far too quick than I like to see. I shake my head at the repeat ATM'ers.
The locals here...too many want instant gratification of getting paid on every roll. It’s not worth it and IMO, it leads to too many early exits and too much money lost.
it can be a grind play....but the term “patience, grasshopper”, comes to mind. I'm not going to beat a negative EV....but I'd rather bring that edge as low as I can...and take my chances.
The problem, Dave....is that you really can't recommend a strategy to others that you use because, as a DI, your strategy should be predicated on what numbers YOU can hit more than random...whether it's the 4/10 or 6/8 or whatever.
Another DI player may have an entirely different "skew" to his rolls. It's not transferable unless that player he's recommending it to possesses the same "skew" of data that you have.
A random guy....he has no clue what's going to happen, so he might go with and recommend a 3 point Molly and utilize lowest house edge play. That play can be transferred to a random believer.
Frankly, any DI who has crunched his data....cannot recommend his strategy to another player unless these 2 DI have same, similar data for skewing random.
A random players recommendation is essentially universal....it can apply to any random believer and still be a solid play.
We are not talking about the merits of come betting. Just saying that on a CO winner 7 your hand is over. Just that.
If you gotta hunch...bet a bunch....
Obviously, seven not a good thing if you've got the bases loaded. With only one bet in action, it's no different than on the Pass.
Trust me Dave, even with repeated losers, it is not a bad thing to be on only one bet.
In craps it is often difficult to see the forest because of the trees.
The pass line makes up in volume of hits what it lacks in payout power in any given individual win.
Over time for every $100 you win on the pass line, you'll win approx $95 to $98 on the 4 or 10 depending on place,buy, and vig rules. The 6/8 place are the only numbers that favorably compare. You'll win a little over $99.50 verses $100 on the line with the 6/8.
But you're a DI you say. That's even better. Use your set that produces the most sevens on CO rolls and switch to the set that tosses the most of whatever point you set. Tracking software will show you this if you have an advantage.
If you're using a V set it's easy. Use your best V3 variant for 6/8 points and the sister V2 set for 4/10. Since opposite sides of dice add up to seven, the sevens will stay in the same dice face results. If the point is 5/9 you may have to hope for the best, depending on how well you know your toss.
Could be your greatest post ever, but I am bi-assed.
I've seen monster rolls so full of crappy numbers that I wouldn't press on em...I mean 50-90 rolls.
But I've also seen 35-40ish roll nail 90% the inside where guys made 15-20k.
What makes the difference is not the length, it's the quality!
That's the difference between a lucky shooter and a great shooter!
Sometime betting strategies overlap. Say I am betting the 6&8 which I hit quite often . I am betting say $30 6&8. First hit regress to $18 6&8 DI. Or not.
6&8 + 1-2 come is good. Protection and spread. Plain 6-8 will miss way too much.
I could be wrong...but I think I have had better luck with three numbers covered rather than two (6-8). I could be wrong...but it just feels like I've done better with three rather than two numbers. I've also tried four....and that has fallen flat on its face.
No issue with with the play. I do like having a 3rd number covered. Can't explain it other than balance...enough, not too much, not too little.
Is this to say that a DI does have a clue? No. At best, his data might show that he is slightly better than expected with respect to outcome of 10.
In reality, this doesn't mean much.
Right. I'm not exactly sure how the skew of random would shake out for a DI...only saying he cannot reccommend a strategy based off of that to anyone else, unless he knew that player was similar to him.
The other issue...if you have skewed a number in your favor, that also means some other number or numbers are NOT coming up as expected. That player might want to also know what that number(s) is and employ a possible lay strategy into the "ball of wax".
I might be off base....but a DI who has thoroughly crunched his data should have a proprietary strategy that cannot nor should not be passed on to just anyone. It could actually be detrimental to the guy you pass it on to without knowing his skill. A random believer such as you and I have no such restrictions on saying "pass/odds" or "3 point Molly" to anyone.
I would equate it to John McEnroe trying to pass along his unique serve motion. No one uses that motion since or after. Only him.