Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by Blue_Angel, May 24, 2014.

1. Blue_Angel, May 24, 2014

### Blue_Angel Member

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I assume that everybody in this forum understands the probability odds and payouts of the game of Craps.
This is the way how we conclude that casinos have the edge over the gamblers.
Do you agree so far? Good
In the whole Craps layout,probably in every table game layout,there is only one bet with POSITIVE EV!!!
Let me repeat the last one, in the whole of the table games there is only one bet with POSITIVE EV!!!
Of course we are talking about CRAPS!
Why you think the name of the game is synonymous with this bet...?!
But let's take a closer look at the "ANY CRAPS" bet;

As we know, the payout of 1+1 (2) is 30 to 1 which gives the house an advantage because the true odds are 36 to 1
The payout of 1+2 or 2+1 (3) is 15 to 1 which makes it a bad investment because the true (in theory) odds are 36 to 2 or 18 to 1
The same goes for 5+6 or 6+5 (11) and finally 6+6 (12) is the same case as the snake eyes (2)
All those bets have been called sucker bets for obviously a good reason.
But what about ANY CRAPS bet?!
This bet pays 7 to 1 which means if I bet 10 USD I would receive 70 plus my wager of 10,a total of 80
Now let me remind you the possible outcome combinations of all CRAPS: 1+1, 1+2, 2+1, 5+6, 6+5, 6+6 which makes a TOTAL of 6 COMBINATIONS!
So the casinos have decided to pay 7 to 1 instead of 5 to 1 or even 4 to 1 like on "ANY SEVEN" bet!!!
For example the ANY SEVEN bet has a total of 6 possible combinations,which is 1+6, 6+1, 2+5, 5+2, 3+4 and 4+3
On the other hand, ANY CRAPS has also a total of 6 combinations BUT INSTEAD OF PAYING 4 TO 1 , PAYS 7 TO 1!!!
Both bets are for 1 time roll (no push,break even or contract bet)
My conclusion is that THIS IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE RULE!
Before you try to decline the very obvious fact I have presented you, think this:
THE VERY SAME THEORY WHICH CONFIRMS THE HOUSE EDGE, HERE WORKS FOR THE GUESTS INSTEAD OF THE HOUSE!!!
SO IF YOU DON'T ACCEPT WHAT I'VE JUST SAID, THEN YOU DON'T ACCEPT ANY OF THE THEORIES ABOUT THE HOUSE EDGE!!!
Of course there are also other,more complicate bets which have a bigger PLAYER EDGE than just betting a progression on ANY CRAPS starting on 1 buck, but I'm not going to reveal them!

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2. basicstrategy777, May 24, 2014

### basicstrategy777 Member

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You need schooling on odds.

777

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3. Blue_Angel, May 24, 2014

### Blue_Angel Member

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I don't think so, but if you believe otherwise, PROVE ME WRONG!

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4. basicstrategy777, May 24, 2014

### basicstrategy777 Member

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Do you know what the number 36 represents and what the number 1 represents in the exprestion 36 to 1........same with 18 to 1.

Don't feel bad....people have trouble on how to express odds. For example, how do you express an event with the odds of 547 in 1131. ?

777

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5. ### Liman Member

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I have never made an any craps bet, but I was always under the impression it was only the 2,3 and 12, not the 11.
I guess I have to go read up on prop bets.

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6. Blue_Angel, May 24, 2014

### Blue_Angel Member

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Yes,means 1 possible outcome out of 36 or 1 out of 18...etc
So if this probability being paid on 15 to 1 ratio, it's unfair,or you may say that this is the HE

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7. Blue_Angel, May 24, 2014

### Blue_Angel Member

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Yes,you are right,the 11 is NOT included in ANY CRAPS bet!

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8. basicstrategy777, May 24, 2014

### basicstrategy777 Member

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I guess I'll have to put it more bluntly.....the true odds are not 36 to 1 ( or 18 to 1.)

1 in 36 does not mean 36 to 1.

777

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9. superrick, May 24, 2014

### superrick Member

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Then what are you writing about?

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10. Blue_Angel, May 24, 2014

### Blue_Angel Member

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I SAID THE PAYOUT OUGHT TO BE 18 TO 1 FOR A PROBABILITY OF 1 OUT OF 18!
WHAT'S YOUR POINT AFTER ALL?! YOU ARE TRYING TO PLAY WITH WORDS AND MISSING THE BIG PICTURE!! I THINK YOU ARE PREJUDGED AND YOUR CRITICISM IS NOT WITH GOOD INTENTIONS...

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11. superrick, May 24, 2014

### superrick Member

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Why is it when anybody is told that they are wrong, the person that was wrong, says everybody is out to get them?

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12. Blue_Angel, May 24, 2014

### Blue_Angel Member

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I've replied to 2 different persons before you in different way...
So I'm no responding in the same manner every time I'm receiving a reply on my threads.
Maybe it was my mistake in the first place about including 11 on the ANY CRAPS bet, but it's a good oportunity to think the opposite...
What if "any craps" bet was paying 7 to 1, would that be a "killer" bet?!
In my opinion, the difference, on individual level, is insignificant, it does only make sense for the casinos because this minor edges are becoming big profits when you sum up the total wagering of ALL of the gamblers!
In other words,it's a different thing to claim 3 % of 100,000 and MUCH different a 3% of 100!
Would a 3 \$ minus/plus on a 100 total bankroll would mean something to you or anyone else??
Thanks for you understanding

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13. ### Liman Member

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yes, for me a 3 dollar minus on every 100 dollars is more than Im willing to gamble.
I can bet pass line with full odds and statistically, I should lose only 1.50 on every 100 dollars.
why use a bet where Im bound to lose 1.5% more of my bankroll?

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14. KokomoJoe4, May 24, 2014

### KokomoJoe4 Member

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It would be an even better bet if the place six and eight were paying 7:1. Maybe I could win on each and every shooter if this were the case. What does either "what if" have to do with the game we play?

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15. Blue_Angel, May 24, 2014

### Blue_Angel Member

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Everything is more or less an "if" in the game we play

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16. KokomoJoe4, May 24, 2014

### KokomoJoe4 Member

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I'm beginning to see what you mean. If the seven counts against us only one in three times it shows, our performance will be a bit improved, unless they showed as come out sevens.

We are taught when young to use our imagination.

Seriously BA, the only positive ev I am aware of on the craps table is my buying an established Don't bet, probably on the 6 or 8, which the player wants to remove. With this purchase, I can now place a similarly sized 6 or 8, so that I have a small winner guaranteed, regardless of whether the winning roll is 6 (8) or 7.

For ex, if the player has \$100 DP and a 6 comes out. He wants to pull the bet and instead I buy it from him, and then place a \$96 six. I win \$4 on seven out, or I win \$12 if the six comes first.

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17. Blue_Angel, May 24, 2014

### Blue_Angel Member

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I like your strategy because it's down to earth approach,some other strategies are keep pushing,pressing and exposing all of their sequence profits till they have no profits!
By aiming less but more consistent profits is the way to go

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18. superrick, May 24, 2014

### superrick Member

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19. superrick, May 24, 2014

### superrick Member

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Maybe I'm missing something here, a any craps bet already pays 7 to 1 with a house edge of 11.1%, are from different countries or something? I see that you wrote a book on craps so it would be my understanding that you must be an expert on the game of craps? What am I missing?

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20. Blue_Angel, May 24, 2014

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