After 20, 30 Years Playing: Ahead or Behind?

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by Grizzoola, Jul 5, 2013.

  1. SevenOut, Jul 11, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,339
    Likes Received:
    1,490
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    89005
    *********
    Basic... tell us what you do or/and dislike or like about Falcon's game. I have given my opinions on several threads on his game and from my view, covered it very well and would not play this game. I prefer to risk a bit more for my greedy ambitions of being a PAID Craps Forum writer. Of which I have failed miserably.

    You and I are on the same track, the same koo koo car. You have a better seat, a window seat.

    I AGREE with you on Falcon's MATH. Read my, earlier post before you became involved, a fairly lengthy and sober remarks asking for SOMEONE, ANYONE to put a "silver bullet into the REST of his game plan". You would be the man, but you have me SevenOut confused with Falcon. Other than pulling out a layout and spending several hours testing the game, I thought about it and immediately knew it was not my kind of game. Period.

    I was referred to another Thread to be enlightened on this Thread concerning Falcon's game. I HAD even made Posts on that thread. Read a couple. We are on the same track... but FIND the missing link on Falcon's strategy. I have said at least once, maybe three times on various Threads that it is not my game and I find it a net win/loss game, but not my kind of action.

    On a Cattle Feed Lot you use to see piles of manure. The nitrogen would "heat up" and get hot any time of the year. In the cold months we would call them "smokers". They really put out some billowing streams of hot steam. So, we are on the same team... just go after the target... Falcon's strategy. Not the "smokers".

    Best to your game and do not push your age. I could be half your age or double... Age and experience have no common relative meaning.

    I also do not count your 1188 posts against my "218 magical poetic Craps posts" as any indication that I do not know sheep dip when I step in it. I was "forced" to learn Casino Gambling for two years, 6 days a week, 8 hours a day and two days I did 10 hours, by the book, making payroll. Anyone on this Forum who has ran a business knows... you do it become you LOVE IT, not because it will give me any credibility, what so ever on the CrapsForum. If I quit playing Craps today... I would never miss it at all. I quit playing with myself at the age of 13 and survived. I think you and I could be buddies, but do not loan me any cash... Keep the spirit. I am the horse fly under a saddle and mean no harm... you and I just want to see how high the horse will jump... with Falcon as the rider. (Ain't that so Falcon?)
     
    #41
  2. falcon, Jul 11, 2013

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    7
    In a previous life. I did a lot of riding including one real rodeo (bronc riding - got thrown and landed hard). It was fun though. Did some stunt work too and have been "killed" four times. There are no barbs, large or small, that can make my horse jump high enough to create any damage. (And my math is accurate and really good.)

    falcon
     
    #42
  3. falcon, Jul 13, 2013

    falcon

    falcon Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    7
    And the error is WHERE?

    The posted bets are correct.

    The first rolled number with the results of that roll are correct.

    The next 9 rolled results are correct.

    The tally of the results of both rolls for both players is correct.

    The basic concept as presented is correct.

    And the error is WHERE?

    Try again.

    falcon
     
    #43
  4. tabletop123, Jul 13, 2013

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    7,564
    Likes Received:
    5,533
    Been playing this game for over thirty years, and I can tell you (UNDOUGHTEDLLY), that you will save a ton of money by (NOT) bettEVEN ing on the first roll after the point is established. (NOW AS TO WHY THINGS GO THAT WAY) I TRULY DONT KNOW, but when I review my casino table-tracking records, it is SCARY TO SEE THAT A LARGE MAJORITY OF (ROLL-KILLERS ARE THE TOSS RIGHT AFTER THE POINT IS ESTABLISHED!!!!!!!!!! I DONT CARE IF THE SHOOTER HAS THROWN 74 NUMBERS, ITS NORMALLY ALWAYS THAT SECOND ROLL THAT KILLS EVERYTHING!!!!!!
     
    #44
  5. Grizzoola, Jul 13, 2013

    Grizzoola

    Grizzoola Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2012
    Messages:
    1,592
    Likes Received:
    574
    tabletop: Thanks for getting this thread back on-topic. You didn't mention whether you're ahead or behind. No matter, because you did bring up a point that I agree with, even after my short experience. (Well, I guess I'm going off-topic, here.) I play the PL/O & 2 Come/O. One writer suggested just what you said: Don't bet or load up your odds until the second roll after the point established. I've found this advice has saved my butt, both in live play & in sim's. It's esp. advantageous w/ a come bet after point established, because a 7 out wins for the come, loses for the PL, & with no odds, yet, it's a wash. Has happened many, many times.
     
    #45
  6. tabletop123, Jul 13, 2013

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    7,564
    Likes Received:
    5,533
    GRIZOOLA, TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, I AM A LIFETIME LOOSER BECAUSE JUST LIKE MOST PEOPLE, I INITIALLY HAD NO STRATEGY, DISCIPLINE, MONEY-MANAGEMENT SKILLS, BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, NEVER LEARNED WHEN TO WALK AWAY. NOW THAT I AM MUCH OLDER AND WISER, I CAN TRUTHFULLY SAY THAT I DONT WIN EVERY SINGLE TIME(BUT 75% OF THE TIME0 BECAUSE I DONT DIG EARLY DITCHES, AND IF I GET AHEAD EARLY I LOCK UP THE PROFIT & TAKE A BREAK!!!!! I WOULDNT GIVE A SHIT IF ITS ONLY A $100.00 WIN. ITS STILL A WIN. yOU HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT YOU ARE PLAYING A NEGATIVE EXPECTATION GAME WHERE THE HOUSE IS EATING AWAY AT YOUR BANKROLL(CHARGING YOU A VIG ON EVERY BET YOU MAKE) & PAYING YOU INCORRECT ODDS ON YOUR BETS. (HOW DO YOU THINK THEY KEEP THE LIGHTS ON?) LOL EXAMPLE: IF YOU GO TO THE TABLES WITH A $400.00 BUY IN & YOU ARE AHEAD 60.00 IN THE FIRST 30 MINUTES TO AN HOUR, WHY NOT LOCK UP THE PROFIT & TAKE A BREAK? I REALIZE THAT 60.00 IS NOT A LOT BUT IT IS STILL 15% OF YOUR BUY IN ... THAT IS THE WAY YOU (MUST) THINK IN ORDER TO HAVE A CHANCE AT WINNING. MOST PEOPLE DONT REALIZE THAT A LITTLE IS A LOT WHEN YOU ARE BATTLING A FOE THAT HAS A WHOLE LOT MORE RESOURCES THAN YOU HAVE. THAT IS THE WAY YOU HAVE TO THINK IN ORDER TO GIVE YOURSELF A (FAIR) SHOT AT COMING HOME A WINNER!!!!!! SURE, EVERYONE WANTS TO WIN BIG, BUT THE REALITY IS THAT MOST TIMES: IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN THAT WAY. TWO HITS AND DOWN, CHARTING THE TABLE, TO MAKE SURE THE TABLE IS AT (LEAST) LUKE-WARM IS THE WAY TO WIN. YOU HAVE TO ALSO KNOW HOW TO PLAY THE DARKSIDE. PERSONALLY, I HATE THE DARKSIDE, SO NORMALLY WHEN THE TABLE GETS COLD, I JUST EXIT!!!!!!!! FOR ALL YOU (GAMBLERS) THAT THINK TWO HITS AND DOWN IS TOO BORING, REMEMBER AFTER YOU GET YOUR TWO HITS , IT IS NOT GRAVED IN STONE TO NOT JUMP BACK INTO THE FRAY!!!!! IF THE SHOOTER KEEPS THROWING NUMBERS, GET BACK IN ON THE ROLL FOR ANOTHER TWO OR THREE HITS AND DOWN. BELIEVE ME, I AM NO FOOL. I AM NOT GOING TO JUST STAND THERE WHILE SOMEONE ROLLS 314 NUMBERS & ONLY GET MY TWO HITS AND DOWN, I AM JUST SAYING THAT LONG ROLLS ARE THE EXCEPTION & NOT THE RULE. HOPE THIS HELPS SOMEONE!!!!!!!
     
    #46
  7. tabletop123, Jul 13, 2013

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    7,564
    Likes Received:
    5,533
    OOOPS!!!!!! FORGOT TO MENTION THIS: THE NEXT TIME YOU GO TO THE CASINO, MAKE A MENTAL NOTE (OR BETTER STILL, CHART THE FREQUENCY OF SEVEN-OUTS THE VERY NEXT ROLL AFTER THE POINT IS ESTABLISHED !!!!!!!! IT IS MIND BOGGLING.. AND IT DOESNT MATTER WHICH CASINO YOU ARE PLAYING AT. IT IS AN EXTREMELY HIGH NUMBER. WHY? I DONT KNOW!!!! MAYBE ITS THE WAY THE STARS AND MOON ARE ALIGNED(BUT THAT HAS BEEN MY OBSERVATIONS) BECAUSE I CHART EVERY TABLE & CASINO THAT I PLAY AT!!!!! I WOULD RATHER EAT A SPIDER THAN TO BET ON THE FIRST ROLL AFTER THE POINT IS ESTABLISHED!!!!!!!
     
    #47