a couple questions on dice tossing

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by rongarm10, Jun 29, 2017.

  1. TDVegas, Jul 3, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,019
    Likes Received:
    10,947
    Another dumb statement that TOTALLY ignores the 2 to 1 win/loss edge on the come out.

    I see you are taking innumeracy lessons from Rick.

    You don't get to make up AFTER scenarios....and TOTALLY ignore the advantage the passline has on come out roll.

    AFTER point, a 7 rolls...you lose all your place bets. How bout that "after"....?
     
    #121
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  2. gargoil, Jul 3, 2017

    gargoil

    gargoil Member

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2013
    Messages:
    1,187
    Likes Received:
    618
    I'm not taking sides either way. Good bet / bad bet. If you do a google search you will find several articles and sites that state the pass line bet is the worst while other sites states that it's the best. They each state their own reasons. It's obvious that this back and forth about the pass line bet is not only happening on this forum but in the general internet.

    In my humble opinion, NOBODY can tell ANYONE what is a good bet or a bad bet. It's all theory and hypothesis. As a matter of fact, I AM the ONLY person that can decide for myself while playing whether a bet I am about to make is good or bad based on .... Just like TDV while playing bubble craps can decide if a bet is a good bet or a bad bet when he is playing based on ...

    People need to QUIT trying to CONVINCE others and simply state matters as an opinion and LET THE READERS decide for themselves.
     
    #122
    rongarm10, betwthelines and TDVegas like this.
  3. TDVegas, Jul 3, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,019
    Likes Received:
    10,947
    8 ways to win, 4 ways to lose....

    Damn right it is. That is a math based statement.
     
    #123
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  4. TDVegas, Jul 3, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,019
    Likes Received:
    10,947
    Absolutely. Best bet, worst bet.....once we discard the math of each bet---these simply become personal opinions on how one likes to play craps. if I ever discuss best or worst...it is ONLY done with the math. Beyond the math, someone may feel he likes the place better than come bet. I'm not arguing that point at all. Go with the place bet if you like it.

    Player A puts down pass line wager....

    Player B puts down a don't pass wager....

    Who is making a better bet?
     
    #124
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  5. gargoil, Jul 3, 2017

    gargoil

    gargoil Member

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2013
    Messages:
    1,187
    Likes Received:
    618
    Even with the math it's only hypothetical. The math may give you a guiding start but there are no guarantees. To answer your Player A / B question, no one knows and you can never determine that on the forum. The only way to determine if Player A is making a better bet than Player B is at the table (or the bubble). If you see a lot of sevens then one opinion would be to bet the pass line (money on the come out). But again that's just a "hunch". AN OPINION on a preferred way to play.
     
    #125
    betwthelines likes this.
  6. TDVegas, Jul 3, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,019
    Likes Received:
    10,947
    Yes, we all have past data that beats up a gambler...any gambler.

    After point is established....place bettor puts $18 each on 6-8. 7 rolls.

    Next roll 7-7-11. Place bettor is on sidelines. Pass bettor has just won 3 bets.

    Point number 9 is established. Place bettor bets $18 each 6-8. 4-4-11-7 rolls.

    What argument is either of us making here?
    That any strategic play can win or lose?
    Of course.
     
    #126
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  7. TDVegas, Jul 3, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,019
    Likes Received:
    10,947
    Yep. Someone is getting it. Exactly right. What's the qualification?
     
    #127
  8. KokomoJoe4, Jul 3, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Messages:
    5,765
    Likes Received:
    4,627
    Location:
    Cranberry Twp, PA
    This is also the conclusion of a man who played as much craps as anyone on the face of the earth.

    Sam Grafstein, the "Dice Doctor" tells you up front to pick the way you prefer to play and stick with it.

    He will also tell you that there are more ways to "fuck up your play" on the Do than on the Don't.

    In a nutshell, he thinks you should play line bets and always parlay come out winners, whether naturals or craps.

    According to Sam, when on the Don't, once you convert to the position of favorite, put out odds, less when you are starting or behind, more when you are winning money.

    It stands to reason that because MORE decisions are delayed than immediate, the player is mathematically "smarter" playing the Don't. Math predicts that 67% of all come out rolls will put the Don't better into position of favorite. However, he will not win ALL of these delayed decisions. As always, it will depend on how the dice tumble.
     
    #128
  9. twodicebilly, Jul 3, 2017

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2016
    Messages:
    3,758
    Likes Received:
    1,277
    Gender:
    Male
    koko

    To be honest, I play many time son my practice table and I normally run the practice with 3 ways of actual betting, to see
    which would have had the best results.....

    If you leave out the big rolls of 40 or more, the don't's or some
    combination of the donts plus 6 & 8 win out more often than
    betting only with the dice.

    Here is an example.....this morning I was messing around
    and threw 6 hands....I did not change any sets etc like I
    would in a casino....

    hands
    5/9/6/11/6/7
    8/7
    4/8/2/5/8/9/7
    7/5/8/7
    9/5/6/5/5/12/7
    5/10/8/7

    This is to be sure a pretty sick attempt to do anything, but
    this is what you see many times at the table.

    I made good money on this sequence using one of the Hunter methods.... betting the pass line only you got killed, betting
    pass line and 2 come bets you got killed.

    If this had gone on for 10-15 hands.....I think I could have
    used 1 or 2 place bets and did ok....come bets, not with this
    type of table.

    If you are going to play only one system, such as the pass line
    and two come bets only.... I think you will need a very large
    bank roll.

    twodicebilly
     
    #129
  10. TDVegas, Jul 3, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,019
    Likes Received:
    10,947
    I could agree with that. Also, if it's not working...leave.
    Also a decent play. I believe OAP uses some variation of this play.
     
    #130
  11. von duck, Jul 3, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,858
    Likes Received:
    2,592
    Gender:
    Male
    Answer: neither, they should pick the money up, go out in the alley, and "split" 1/2 pay, the 12. Both players gain with this arrangement. I guess you could just play it out on the rail, cut the house out of the action:D
     
    #131
  12. TDVegas, Jul 3, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,019
    Likes Received:
    10,947
    No. You have to pick one.:)

    I don't care which one you pick....as long as you state your reason.

    I don't have much comment if any on how someone chooses to play craps. Those declaring "I'm playing the game the right way or "correct way" or "best chance" and..."you're playing it wrong".....

    Those people are talking out of their ass. There is only one qualification for "best chance"....

    see Demango's post #107
     
    #132
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
  13. KokomoJoe4, Jul 3, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Messages:
    5,765
    Likes Received:
    4,627
    Location:
    Cranberry Twp, PA
    Although this reply, based on the experiences of the famous Dice Dr, agrees with the Baron's favorable assessment of Don't relative to Do, I choose to play otherwise.

    The Why? for me is simple - I do not want to Lay odds. I prefer what is probably a slightly inferior way to play, largely because the wins, when they come, are going to be bigger than the amount at risk.

    I can and do minimize losses with other types of management, the best of which are playing "one at a time", and heading out the door before losing all I bought in with.
     
    #133
    rongarm10 and tabletop123 like this.
  14. tabletop123, Jul 3, 2017

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2013
    Messages:
    7,564
    Likes Received:
    5,531
    I
    Regarding Place Betting......Kokomo, I find that utilizing Linaway's material when place betting, works marvelously well for ME!

    It's the only way to fly, & although nothing is 100% guaranteed, Linaway's material gives you a blow by blow Factual analysis of how the dice are performing!

    It is EXTREMELY rare to see long hands, or mediocre hands with a overabundance of Group 1 outcomes. I have NEVER seen a deviation from that.

    Koko, the Seven Outs that I clocked at Murphy were in the 80% Group 1 outcomes. THAT type of consistent feedback is enough to make me a believer!

    Only problem that I have is that unfortunately, my brain doesn't compute quickly enough SOME of the times, before the 300 point gorilla swipes the dice to the center of the table!

    So, in essence, I'm forced to "no roll" a few outcomes because of my inability to read the dice quickly enough! Unlike Dice Influencing. Linaway's stuff is pure facts ( although In hindsight), & the gathering of information can be applied to your betting style a multitude of different ways!

    Personally, I've experienced roughly a 80% success rate (Linaway's material) since I've gotten away from the Dice Influencing thingy. Of course that could all change, but the factual information on how the dice perform will always remain intact!

    See you at The Top!
     
    #134
  15. superrick, Jul 3, 2017

    superrick

    superrick Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2011
    Messages:
    3,383
    Likes Received:
    1,255
    You and just about everybody else on this board only look at that you can win on the 5/2, 4/3 and 6/1 and the 11 on the come out roll but never look at the fact that you can also lose with the 2, 3, and 12 and the simple fact that you just might establish a point.

    You also ignore the math of the game that you think will make you money by playing the pass-line bet, which by the way tells you that most players will seven-out by 4 to 8 rolls of the dice.

    So with that said your come out rolls only have one more number that you can win on and three that you can lose on! Once the come out rolls are over with once again the math tells you that you're at a disadvantage and are locked into a bet that can only be decided by winning or most likely losing. As you always point out after all aren't you playing the same negative game that you keep telling everybody about?

    A little common sense goes a long way when playing craps something that you always overlook. You love to show everybody those strings of numbers that you post looking like they would have been winners but ignore all of those losing rolls after the point has been established, my question to you is just how many weeks did you sit at the bubble machine before you had something that you could post?

    I could go to any bubble craps machine and sit there long enough to put out all of those PSO's that happen all of the time and the short roll that the pass-line better will never win!

    Then you fail to tell everybody that when you do win a pass-line bet that you are only getting even money on a locked in bet!
    The funny thing is that you and OAP can't see just how bad of a bet you have when you make it!

    I've been over the pass-line bet before on this board so why don't you go back and re-read the other post that I have on it? Do some of the work yourself maybe you will learn something besides what you think is a good bet!
     
    #135
  16. Onautopilot, Jul 3, 2017

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,765
    Gender:
    Male
    It goes a long way in most things....you should try using some when you post erroneous crap about the pass line bet.
     
    #136
  17. DeMango, Jul 3, 2017

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2010
    Messages:
    5,533
    Likes Received:
    2,348
    Gender:
    Male
    $100 on pass line: lose $1.41
    $100 on the 5: lose almost $5.00

    Any questions?
     
    #137
    HornHiYo and TDVegas like this.
  18. von duck, Jul 3, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,858
    Likes Received:
    2,592
    Gender:
    Male
    Aren't we touchy about that PL bet, almost like some people are trying to "sell" it to you.
     
    #138
    rongarm10 likes this.
  19. TDVegas, Jul 3, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,019
    Likes Received:
    10,947
    Rick, why do you say such stupid things?
    I am VERY aware that I can lose on the 2-3-12.
    I am also VERY aware a point can be established.
    I am also VERY aware that I win on a 7-11 comeout.

    There is NO passline bettor who isn't aware of this FACT!!

    Ignore the math?
    what the hell does that even mean?
    Ignoring the math does NOT mean anything. The math is attached to EVERY table wager whether you like it or not. Ignoring the math is like walking in the rain and ignoring the fact you are getting wet. You can ignore it...you're still getting wet like everyone else.

    Of course I'm aware of the probabilities of the 7 appearing. We are looking for variance. Like this!!

    image.jpeg


    Of course you can. I can also buy a few black chips....post a video of me walking to the cage and say I won. Maybe that's what you do. Who knows?
    Your claims of winning, beating craps are NO MORE or less credible than mine. Hey, at the very least I have something (a picture of what was rolled) to show. You have nothing. You think walking around with a few black chips means anything? You could have just bought those....and walked away.

    Speaking of come outs....we are also looking for this. So while you are on the sidelines waiting to make a place wager....I've won 6 come out winners. Had you been playing your place bets, you would have lost on the first 7. Then missed the next 4 winners. Then lost on the 7 after the 8. Then missed 2 additional winners.

    image.jpeg

    You or I can post scenarios until we both drop dead....
    What's the point? My claims and your claims are EXACTLY what they are. Claims.

    The only difference is you claim others should play your way. I call horseshit on that. Let people play the way they want. I just gave you a scenario for a passline bettor that looks pretty damn good.

    Of course it can also go the other way and the place/buy bettor fares bettor. THIS IS CRAPS.
     
    #139
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
    Onautopilot likes this.
  20. von duck, Jul 3, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,858
    Likes Received:
    2,592
    Gender:
    Male
    .
    SNOW CONES ANYBODY, LEMON I THINK?
     
    #140