2020 Kentucky Derby

Discussion in 'Offtopic Lounge' started by MisterInside, Aug 10, 2020.

  1. MisterInside, Aug 10, 2020

    MisterInside

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    Less than 4 weeks until the Run for the Roses, the first Saturday in September.

    Looks like they're going to pull the plug on College Football this Fall, nobody gives a shit about BLM/MLB, NBA and who knows what the NFL is going to do. Looking for action? Yes, I am. How about horse racing?

    There's two great looking three year olds out there, one's a boy and one's a girl.

    The boy is Tiz the Law who already won the Belmont Stakes and just won the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday. The girl is Gamine who will be running in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on the day before that Derby, as is customary. Tiz the Law is 6/7 lifetime, 4/4 this year and hasn't been challenged this year. At this point in his career, "Tiz" has probably higher expectations than any horse since Spectacular Bid in 1979. Keep in mind that he already won the Belmont Stakes on 6/20. One of 3 triple crown races is already his and the Belmont is the toughest one due to the normal 1 1/2 mile distance.

    Gamine, in my opinion, may be better than Tiz and thru 4 races runs like Ruffian, who possibly is the greatest US filly ever. Gamine is currently running faster times than Tiz. I think that there is a 50/50 chance that Gamine will meet Tiz the Law in the October 3rd Preakness as Tiz goes for the Triple Crown. Gamine is trained by Bob Baffert, the most recognized face in US racing, by far.

    Gamine is not eligible to run in the Derby, but could run in the Preakness.

    Tiz the Law is currently the 11/10 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. No horse has been below even money since the great Spectacular Bid was 3/5 in 1979. That speaks volume about the feeling of Tiz the Law's potential.

    Here's the advance Kentucky Derby wagering pool that was held over the weekend:

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  2. MisterInside, Aug 28, 2020

    MisterInside

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    8 days until the Derby.....4 big stories: 1) Will Tiz the Law win the Derby then go to Pimlico to become our 14th Triple Crown winner; 2) Will Tiz be the heaviest Derby favorite in nearly 30 years; 3) Will the Derby be conceded to Tiz and the focus be on the (female) Kentucky Oaks on Friday? That will be a showdown of the undefeated, Bob Baffert trained Gamine and Swiss Skydiver. Gamine just might be the best female 3 year old US filly since Ruffian 45 years ago. 4) Will Gamine challenge Tiz in the Preakness on October 3rd? Up to now, Gamine is running faster times than Tiz The Law, but can she continue to run her incredibly fast times over longer distances (greater than 1 mile)?

    My answers: YES, YES, YES, NO.

    Some familiar jockey names will be absent from the Derby. They chose to stay at Saratoga and not have to endure the mandatory Kentucky Covid quarantine?


    Kentucky Derby POST TIME- 8:20 pm, Saturday, 9/5.....(1st Derby under the lights). Louisville sunset on 9/5- 8:05 pm.


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  3. TDVegas, Sep 3, 2020

    TDVegas

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    What on earth does this mean....they are limiting payouts?

    How can that be?

    BFEB6D5E-1112-46B1-9BA6-4AB8E28A7D66.jpeg

    I seriously did not know sports books could limit your win regardless of the exacta or trifecta payout. This guy got screwed out of his $600,000. They paid him $35,000 on his winning exacta and trifecta instead of the listed $600,000. I think I would be apoplectic. You are making a long shot bet...but they limit the maximum they will pay you regardless of the listed payout??

    https://www.kolotv.com/content/news...payout-on-Kentucky-Derby-bets--509988191.html
     
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  4. TDVegas, Sep 3, 2020

    TDVegas

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    I need some exacta picks. This is a once a year wager....so I don’t mind hooking up some long shots with a favorite.
     
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  5. MisterInside, Sep 4, 2020

    MisterInside

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    Churchill Downs in a pissing match with Las Vegas. I guess that CD wants a bigger share of the takeout due to lost revenue at the gate because of Covid. Back in the day, bookies limited payouts similarly. There's a helluva big difference between a fixed claiming race than the Derby, which is the reason for max payouts on exotic bets.

    I just picked up the Saturday form. I'll send you a couple of my picks. Tiz looks tough to beat but he's only 3/5 in a 16 horse field. The Oaks today features maybe the 2 best fillies since Zenyatta. PDT post time 2:45. You don't want to miss this race. I am looking forward to this one more than the Derby. I've been touting GAMINE for a couple months. Ruffian's the best female that I have ever seen BY FAR. GAMINE has run identical times in her short (4 race) career. The only question is if she go 1 1/8 miles. I think so. She ran a 110 Beyer in the 1 mile Acorn. Trained by Baffert.
     
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  6. MisterInside, Sep 4, 2020

    MisterInside

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    You don't want to bet longshot exactas in a 16 horse Derby with a 150/1 max payout. It might be wise to set up an OTB account today that pays full track odds. Look at previous exacta payouts in the Derby via Wikipedia.
     
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  7. TDVegas, Sep 4, 2020

    TDVegas

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    So if someone bets a $5 exacta that wins (based on $2 wager)....$400. His payout would normally be $1,000 but he’s only going to receive $750 because of the max 150/1 payout?

    For my wagering, I don’t really care...I wouldn’t set up an OTB account for a once a year thing. It’s just splashing a few bucks on a few horses. Adds to my enjoyment.

    Whatever exacta pairs you like....thanks in advance.
     
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  8. MisterInside, Sep 4, 2020

    MisterInside

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    Yessir.....,150 x 5 = 750 max on a $5 bet. Obviously, the larger the field, the more possible exacta combinations so the higher payoffs.

    I’ll send out my Saturday picks as early as possible, probably around 5 am your time.

    I think that I have some exacta history on an excel file. I’ll send it if I still have it.
     
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  9. MisterInside, Sep 4, 2020

    MisterInside

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    Just looked it up......the AVERAGE Derby $2 exacta in the 25 year period 1994-2018 paid $795, almost 400/1 odds.

    At a 150/1 max, exactas not involving Tiz The Lawn on top, would be a sucker bet.

    Listen to this......During the same 25 year period the average $2 trifecta paid $10927. Imagine only getting 500/1 on those! Highway fuckin' robbery.......lmwao

    PS.....I finally hit the 3rd at CD after blanking in races 1,2.

    CD coverage currently on FS2 but changes to FS1, then NBCSN.
     
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  10. TDVegas, Sep 4, 2020

    TDVegas

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    Wow...I wonder how many people know this when they make long shot bets.

    So you are telling me that most sports books did not pay off these wins at the 2005 Derby even though the person held the winning ticket??? The only way to win these amounts is that the ticket would have to be bought at a pari mutual house? Non-pari mutual means they are screwed on this win.

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  11. MisterInside, Sep 4, 2020

    MisterInside

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    I thought that all LV casinos were plugged into the home track pools. I have never gambled at a William Hill book. That sucks. A 500/1 max payout on the Derby is ridiculous as you can see.

    I always play the horses at the Fremont. I was shooting the shit with the book boss there and I asked him if the bets that they take are booked by them or go into the large pool and he told me that they go into the later.
    The house loves taking horse bets because there is no risk that they could lose. They take a percentage off of the top, period. In rare cases of ‘minus pools’ the track eats the loss.

    Most tracks pay out about 80% of what is wagered. If LV booked all horse bets, their take would be higher than it is, but the bad guys could manipulate the track payouts and crush the book, like Doyle Lonnigan tried to do in The Sting movie.
     
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  12. TDVegas, Sep 4, 2020

    TDVegas

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    Wow. What a rip off. The book won’t ever take a big hit on exactas or Trifectas. That’s bullshit. All the benefits of taking the long odd bet...but capping the win if by chance the miracle comes in.
    I had absolutely no clue that sports books in a Vegas work like this. I assume many of them here are the same as William Hill.
    I’m in the wrong business.
     
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  13. MisterInside, Sep 4, 2020

    MisterInside

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    I don’t think that it is widespread. Hopefully, this year is unique.


     
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  14. MisterInside, Sep 4, 2020

    MisterInside

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    I’m down about $60 as of 3:30 EDT. Playing CD and SAR. Tomorrow, I’ll be playing the 10 stakes races only at those 2 tracks.

    I’ve studied more in the last 24 hours than I did cramming college finals. I guess that’s why I landed in retail for 44 years.

    NBCSN just interviewed some social justice warrior reporter from Louisville. Not enough black horses?
     
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  15. basicstrategy777, Sep 4, 2020

    basicstrategy777

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    that's funny
     
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  16. TDVegas, Sep 4, 2020

    TDVegas

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    Yes....2005 Kentucky Derby. 2 long shots came in.
     
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  17. Mssthis1, Sep 4, 2020

    Mssthis1

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    William Hill probably took on a boat load of new debt ramping up when the sports betting was legalized a year or so ago.

    The kung flu made that one into very bad timing. They probably have cash flow issues. Glad I didn't dabble in their stock. I considered it when sports betting was legalized.

    Since I don't bet horses or sports bet, I haven't been paying much attention.
     
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  18. MisterInside, Sep 4, 2020

    MisterInside

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    Down $90 for Friday's picks, still up $170 for the Saratoga meet. $297 worth of action on Saturday.
    Really disappointed that Gamine didn't perform today. Her last two races were brilliant. In horse racing, it's difficult to carry that brilliance over a number of races. Remember that Secretariat got beat 4 times and disqualified one other race.

    Playing the 7 stakes races at Churchill and the 4 stakes at Saratoga.

    In the Big One, keying Tiz the Law to win with 7 runners coming in 2nd and 3rd. A $42 trifecta play. After Friday's betting, Tiz The Law is 6/5, up from a morning line of 3/5.

    Good luck if you are playing!


    upload_2020-9-4_21-36-27.png
     
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  19. MisterInside, Sep 4, 2020

    MisterInside

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    I wasn't questioning you. I never saw another exacta like that.
     
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  20. basicstrategy777, Sep 5, 2020

    basicstrategy777

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    pick one more ticket with your second best horse you like coming in first and Liz the law coming in second.......all.......as a safety.

    777
     
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