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Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by Bonedance, Apr 11, 2012.
Holy Moly !!........"I rest my case"
Between MidNite and K....that covers it pretty good.
Ok and thanks to those who helped clear up some of the mist that my searching caused to envelope me. But one issue remains for me. You are all basing superiority on a single roll that has a slight chance of winning, a slighter chance of losing, and if neither of those happen you sttill have to let t sit until it plays out in the casino's favor. I understand what you are trying to say, but I just can't see how that improves things.
I wish I had learned to program wincraps, this is a perfect situation for it. Until then I suppose this will go down like the DI vs Random discussions, with me being the non-believer for now at least.
At the risk of beating a horse that, while not dead, does not wish to be beaten, permit me one last attempt. Given a choice between blackjack games with identical rules, except that one offers late surrender and the other does not, would you have a preference for one game over the other? After all, late surrender is recommended under very few circumstances. Does it make a difference?
OK, one absolutely last attempt. If you were going to play roulette would you rather play on a European (single zero) wheel or an American (double zero) wheel. After all, 00 doesn't come up very often. Does it make a difference?
Thank you for the second example, as I'm not exactly more than a casual BJ player (brother's wife laughs at me when I split those tens). Roulette I am more faliar with, and yes I'd prefer one green meanie to two... however I would disagree that a single zero is an absolutely terrible table to play at while a two zero is a good one.
That being said, assuming you are referring to the "comeout" chances of a seven winning versus a loss... while an immediate loss on a come bet is smaller than the chance of the win, the combined effect of the little chance and the more-than-likely chance of a seven out after the first roll is nothing similar to the chances of a zero or double-zero in roulette. I promise you that I am trying to be open minded on this, and I can see you trying to convince me... but saying that a passline bet is better than a place bet (similar situation) isn't going to do it. Can someone who like programming wincraps give it a whirl? On come bet versus on Put bet over, say, 10,000 rolls? One time around with no odds, then again with 10x odds?
Any bet that I am a 2-to-1 favorite to win is whole lot better than "a slight chance."
If I could get that kind of odds on a comeout roll... I'd be rich. How do you get those odds on a negative expectation bet?
Those are the odds of winning the comeout roll on the come bet.
On the comeout roll the PL loses if............1-1..... 1-2 ....6-6....or 2-1 is rolled. ( that's 4 ways )
On the comeout roll the PL wins if..........5-6.....6-5.....1-6...6-1...2-5....5-2....3-4......or 4-3 is rolled ( that's 8 ways)
the odds of winning are '2 to 1 for' ..... or 2 in 3 .....or the same odds as making a point # on a toss of the dice i.e. 66%........AND you are paid 1 to 1. This is a good thing.
The come bet is identical to the PL bet except for when it is made. One is made when the buck is white...the other is made when the buck is black.
What is wrong with you guys? A passline bet is NOT a one roll bet. You cannot pick it up and walk away. Yes the first roll of the dice you have about a 1 in 3 chance of winning even odds. If you don't win on that roll, you cannot pick your chips up and walk away saying what a great bet you made. the bet isn't OVER yet! Its NOT a one4 roll bet. Place bets are what the casino relies on at craps tables. Casinos can't make money if the player has a 2 to 1 advantage! Ok suppose you made your even odds, you beat the odds pretty badly already (six to one against you having hit that seven), just smile at all the darksiders who can't comprehend what a fantastic bet they keep ignoring. But... on the chance (highly more likely) that a seven or eleven does NOT show on that first roll... and I'll even throw in the 2,3, and 12 not showing for good measure...every roll after that is against you, with that wonderful seven being just as likely to show as you exeperct it to on the comeout roll.
Now tell me, since the passlinr/come bets are sooooooo much moneymakers for you, what color Lamborghini do you drive?
the international racing color for Italy......take a wild guess.
fantastic! And you won all the money to pay for it off passline bets? Or even enough to make its down payment?
took the money from WAM ( walking around money)
In that case, tell us what "single roll with a slight chance of winning" you are referring to?
Ok its clear you are just talking in circkles so this is my last post.. Its not me, but you, who was referring to a passline / come bet as a one roll bet. I was pointing out that it isn't, and that it isn't you do NOT have the advantage you were claiming. End of discussion.
I know I'm in danger of sounding like falcon but you guys are way overstating the PL/come bet. But if all you're saying is that for that one roll it's an awesome bet cause it has less chance to lose I can agree but what SC and I say is that for one roll you only win even money after that the odds change.
So since you only win even money if the right combo shows I don't think it's anything to right home about.
I can't blame you for not being able to explain your simple statement about a "single roll with a slight chance of winning.” It fails any test of logic.
Ignore them. They are quite obviously just trolling right now. Its a shame some adults never get beyond the playground.
Okay... but you're missing something very important here. While the PL pays even money on the come-out roll (or at any time, for that matter), it also has only a small chance of losing on the come-out roll as compared to its chance of winning. Therefore, during that "one roll", the payout is great. If the bet is resolved on the "other roll"... yes... sucks to be us Pass Line/Come bettors. But we never know when that "other roll" will come into play. If we did, we would Place bet right along side you.
So how do we compare the even money wins of come-out and point winners on the PL/Come to the potential of a Place bet winning at Place bet odds? Well... we take into consideration a few things. First of all... what is the probability of each of these bets winning? That's easy enough to figure out for a Place bet, but we must factor in the two "stages" for a PL/Come bet. After all of this factoring, we must also consider the payouts of 1:1 on the PL/Come and the payouts of the Place bet of your choice. Then we must also consider the probabilities of losing each of these bets... and how much we lose when it happens.
Once we've figured out the all of the probabilities of winning and how much we win when it happens, we can combine it with all of the probabilities of losing and how much we lose when that happens. The result is some number. It tells us how much we are expected to lose for each of the bets. If we take that number and divide it by how much we bet on each of the wagers respectively, we get a very special number. That number is what we call the "House Edge" (someone may chime in with an argument stating that this is actually the expected win/loss per dollar and that this is not the strict definition of the house edge... and they would not be wrong).
Thankfully, I don't have to go through these calculations because many have done it before me. And guess what they say?
They say that the Pass Line/Come is expected to lose about 1.41% of the initial wager. Place bets lose 1.51%, 4.00% and 6.67% depending on the number you're betting on.
For Put bets it's a tiny bit trickier because of what odds multiple you're betting, and whether all or part of those odds are being paid true odds.
For example, with a Put-point of 6 or 8, $1 flat with $6 odds pays only $8 total, since $5 of those odds gets paid $6, while the remaining $1 only wins $1. The resulting house edge for this bet is still worse than a flat $7 (same $ as Put) on the PL/Come. Actually, because of the even money on the extra dollar on the odds, the house edge is even greater than if you had only taken $5 odds. However, if you Put $15 flat with $125 odds (5x full single odds on the 6 or 8), the resulting house edge is lower than a $140 flat PL/Come.***PLEASE NOTE*** This does not mean that always taking 5x full single odds on a Put bet means that it has a lower house edge than the flat of a PL/Come. The $15 on the 6 & 8 is a special exception.
Even with a Put of $5 flat and $30 odds on the 6 or 8 (if the casino accepts this odds multiple), it's still better than a $35 flat on a PL/Come. But... ***PLEASE NOTE*** it's better than the flat only. Since you can take the same odds multiple on the PL/Come as you can the Put bets, this means that after the "first roll", the bets are identical in terms of house edge (assuming the same number or its "opposite" is bet on).
You may say... okay I agree that after the first roll, the Put and Come bets are identical assuming that the bets are made in the same proportions and with the same amounts... but on the "first roll", the PL/Come wins $5, and only has a chance to take odds (let's say $30) and win a total of $41 after the Come out roll... yet the Put bet has the opportunity to win $41 on the first roll. So how can we know if it is better to have a $5 even money bet on the PL/Come or an active $35 (to win $41) Put bet on the 6/8?
Believe it or not, it's pretty simple. As we know, the expected value of the Put bet on any roll is negative... no matter how small. However... on the PL/Come... the expected value on the "first roll" is positive. The PL/Come has more chances to win than lose and it is getting paid even money. The PL/come gets paid better than it "should" (meaning better than true odds) on the first roll. The Put bet with odds always gets paid worse than it "should"... on any roll.
Maybe you want to go back to the argument that the 6 or 8 is almost as likely to be thrown as a 7... so the advantage of being paid better than even money seems attractive. Yeah... if only it weren't for the fact that you have a relatively large chance of losing that bet instead.
And there it is... what some of us have been saying all along... the "one roll" makes all the difference. And by the way... all this "only one roll" talk is ridiculous. Yeah, it's an advantage on only one roll. Guess what... that's one roll more than the Put bet ever has.
After further reflection and simulations, I decided that my next visit to the craps table will be with two come bets. I appreciate the discussion on this thread, but my intention was not to discuss come bets vs place bets. That argument can go on for ever just like dice setting. It all comes down to the luck of the dice. I've been at tables where Im playing with come bets and did better than the guy making place bets and at other times the reverse was true. That's what makes this game so great. There are so many bets and the outcome of the dice make people win and others lose at the same time.
Now I have to figure out what way is the best to up my bets when winning, but this will be a different thread.
The best bet for the $ would be to put the cash for the 2 (or 3) come bets on the PL odds, wait for a point or two to hit and then start making come bets. I never have more than 3 #'s working so I would make no more than 2 come bets